Coach K. The demonic Moses.
Parting the Sea of Bluebloods
Is Duke going to do this? The probability’s still below 50%, but Duke’s in a great spot to win a national championship in Mike Krzyzewski’s final season, having done away with Arkansas last night and catching two breaks with 1) Houston losing and 2) Villanova’s already thin rotation getting even more starved with Justin Moore’s apparent injury to his Achilles tendon.
There isn’t a whole lot to say about Duke’s own victory over Arkansas last night. It went about as expected, with Arkansas pulling it close a few times but never quite getting ahead. Mark Williams and AJ Griffin led the Blue Devils, who survived an 8-to-15 assist-to-turnover ratio with efficient shooting, mostly in the paint.
In San Antonio, Houston couldn’t buy a bucket, making just one three on twenty attempts while Villanova, struggling to score themselves, got nearly a third of their points from the free throw line, where they didn’t miss a shot. The Wildcats aren’t completely sunk with Moore hurt, but it’s a bad place to be, and it bodes even more poorly for next year, if anyone’s thinking about that, with Villanova potentially moving on from a good share of its rotation already.
Really, Kansas should probably be the favorite if they win today, especially if it’s convincing. Barring, I suppose, another Saint Peter’s upset, which is maybe 1-in-4 likely. The Jayhawks are a better team than Duke, and playing a shorthanded Villanova isn’t that much worse than facing a full-strength UNC. It might even be better. Still, Kansas has to win today to make that an issue, and they’re going to have to score on Miami to do it, something all three of Miami’s opponents so far this tournament have struggled at mightily. A pretty weak defensive team for most of the year, the Hurricanes have either stepped it up or gotten lucky, forcing tons of turnovers against Iowa State and USC and holding Auburn to some downright terrible shooting percentages.
After that one, it’s the Saint Peter’s show again, and we have the most reason yet to doubt whether today’s the day that journey ends. UNC is probably not as good as Purdue, and is almost definitely not as good as Kentucky. They play up-tempo basketball, which is something Saint Peter’s hasn’t seen yet this tournament, but they aren’t as good of a shooting team as Purdue, they lack Purdue’s strength inside, and their defense isn’t on par with that of the guys from Lexington. They are, of course, a heavy favorite, but they’re not an overwhelming one. The KenPom odds are comparable in UNC-Saint Peter’s to what they are in Kansas-Miami. Today could go a lot of different ways.
F1, NASCAR
F1’s in Saudi Arabia today, and NASCAR’s down at Circuit of the Americas outside of Austin. On the F1 side, it’s looking like it’ll be Ferrari vs. Red Bull again, with Mercedes struggling yesterday in qualifying. On the NASCAR side, Chase Elliott’s always the favorite at road courses, but one sleeper—whom we’re in on, among a bunch of others, in today’s bets—is Chris Buescher, who finished third at the Charlotte Roval last fall and finished in the top five in another road course race in 2020. He starts in the middle of the field, but 68 laps is a lot on a track as long as COTA.
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Viewing schedule:
- 1:00 PM EDT: F1 Grand Prix of Saudi Arabia, ESPN
- 2:20 PM EDT: Kansas vs. Miami, CBS
- 4:30 PM EDT: NASCAR at COTA, FOX
- 5:05 PM EDT: North Carolina vs. Saint Peter’s, CBS
I’ll have the F1 and NASCAR on the streaming screen. Gotta go antenna for the Sunday afternoon Elite Eight. It’s just right.
