Joe’s Notes: Did Major League Baseball Ruin Home Runs?

On each individual player page on FanGraphs, the site shows projections for the remainder of the season. Not every system FanGraphs uses projects the stats for every single player—there are thresholds of playing time at which each kicks in—but Aaron Judge’s has five, and those five have him finishing the year with an average of 58.4 home runs, a number that, if it was possible to achieve, would rank eleventh all time on Major League Baseball’s single-season home run leaderboard. Of the ten seasons ahead of that hypothetical 58.4-dinger year, six belong to Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa. Two belong to Babe Ruth (each achieved over a 154-game season). One belongs to Roger Maris. One belongs to Giancarlo Stanton. Of those last four—the non-steroid-era seasons—all lie between 59 and 61. Aaron Judge is reasonably likely, somewhere not far from 50%, to set the non-steroid-era single-season home run record.

What does this mean? Well, it’s clearly historic. A season this prodigious would place Judge among the all-time greats. Even eclipsing 50—a near-inevitability, should Judge stay healthy—would make him one of only eleven players to ever do so twice in a career. Still, it’s hard not to ask: Would it make a sound?

When McGwire and Sosa did what McGwire and Sosa did in 1998, the world watched. When Bonds did what Bonds did in 2001, the world watched. Those seasons have now been tossed on the steroid scrap heap in many a mind, but at the moment, they were captivating. Do they still captivate? It’s hard to know. Maybe the difference is that I’m not a three-and-then-six-year-old boy. But maybe it’s something else.

It’s easy to turn this into a discussion about baseball’s popularity, and there’s certainly a discussion to be had there, one involving generational differences and cable television and dominant teams in large markets. Instead, though, let’s focus on the records. Because the home run record especially used to mean something, and it’s hard to say it does anymore, at least aside from the Barry Bonds number.

There are three layers here: The first is that Judge is not on pace to set the single-season home run record. He’s on pace to maybe set the non-steroid-era single-season home run record. Given the steroid era’s significance in the history of the home run, this is an important caveat. Even if what McGwire & Sosa & Bonds did wasn’t “real,” we still all saw it. We know what it looks like, and what Judge is doing isn’t it. The second is that the steroid era made us all more suspicious. Plenty of people eagerly pulled the wool over their own eyes in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. As The Simpsons famously put it, we didn’t want to know the terrifying truth. We wanted to see guys sock a few dingers. That, too, we can’t forget. We’re skeptical now. Always skeptical. The third is smaller, quite seriously an “inside baseball” matter, but its impact on the baseball media market is probably larger than many consciously recognize. When Major League Baseball started tinkering with the baseball itself a few years ago, intentionally or otherwise, they called home runs back into question. Had it just been the steroid era, we may not have as much to ask about. Instead, we have legitimate questions to ask every single year, and sometimes between games in a given year, about what baseball is being used and what it’s capable of causing to happen. It isn’t just 1998. It’s 2017. It’s even 2021. Add in that Yankee Stadium is perceived to be an easy place to hit home runs, and even though the data on that lags far behind the narrative, it’s easy to look at Aaron Judge and not care. Baseball fans are cynical right now. It’s easy to understand why.

Should we be celebrating Judge more? That’s a hard question to ask. He still isn’t 50% likely to reach 59, let alone 60 or 61 or 62. We don’t have anything to celebrate just yet. A better question is, how much will we celebrate Judge? How will we react if he does pull this off? The answer to that has a lot to say about the bigger discussion—the one about baseball’s role today in America.

Nick Madrigal’s Back with the Cubs

To catch up a little on the Cubs’ roster: In the fallout from the trade deadline, the Cubs activated Madrigal, recalled Anderson Espinoza and Michael Rucker, and added Kervin Castro off of waivers from the Giants. With Zach McKinstry taking Chris Martin’s roster spot, these four took the places of David Robertson, Mychal Givens, and Scott Effross, plus Steven Brault, who was placed on the Covid-but-they-don’t-say-Covid IL. Yesterday, then, Sean Newcomb and Matt Dermody’s contracts were added to the 40-man roster, but Dermody was only called up to be the 27^th man for the doubleheader. David Bote was optioned to AAA to make space for Newcomb, who stays on the 26-man.

There are three things going on here. The first is that the Cubs’ bullpen just had its head cut off, making results like that of the first game yesterday—in which David Ross held off possibly a little longer than he would have otherwise (though he might have kept Marcus Stroman in regardless, with Stroman pitching so well until the seventh inning and having such a low pitch count) and then turned to an assortment of recent call-ups to, in the end, lose the game—potentially common sights in the days going forward. There’s no reason to be very concerned about this. The Cubs’ approach to their 2023 bullpen is likely to be similar to that of their approach to their 2022 bullpen: They’ll add a lot of low-cost players in free agency and try to pump out impact arms from their wide variety of options in the minors. It didn’t actually work as well in 2022 as we maybe think it did. The Cubs are 19^th in bullpen fWAR and 24^th in bullpen FIP, both good measures of the bullpen’s performance, but they’re third in bullpen WPA, a measure of the bullpen’s actual impact. So, either the Cubs had a wide range between the good part of the bullpen and the bad part of the bullpen, or the Cubs got a little lucky. Regardless, this is what’s happening, and it’s hard to think of a much better way to build a bullpen. Relievers are usually guys who couldn’t cut it as starters, and sometimes guys with high one-inning upside. They’re therefore inconsistent, somewhat unpredictable, and not unwise to think of as something like the finish on a table. They’re important, but they don’t matter much if the wood’s no good or the legs aren’t the same length.

The second is that David Bote might be headed for a DFA this offseason. He’s been fine at the plate in his small sample size this year, but he’s going to turn 30 next spring, his upside is low, and the Cubs have better infield options at the moment. Which brings us to the third thing.

Early this season, we wrote that Nick Madrigal was on par with Seiya Suzuki in terms of his importance to the Cubs’ long-term plans. No other players in the organization were as critical to the success of the franchise as those two. Madrigal proceeded to came out of the gate cold and slowly but convincingly fall completely off that list. The guy who was ten percent better than the average MLB hitter over 2020 and 2021 has been 55% worse than the average MLB hitter when healthy in 2022, and it’s been rare that he’s been healthy.

It’s likely the health and the performance are linked, but that isn’t really reassuring. Unless, of course, we have reason to believe Madrigal will get substantially healthier. But will he? The man has been hurt for upwards of a year, on and off.

Net-net, it’s been ok. Nico Hoerner has been healthy himself, and has performed almost exactly at the level we hoped Madrigal would perform, just with more of that impact coming defensively, specifically at shortstop. Unfortunately, though, that’s taken what could have been a breakthrough up the middle and turned it into a different kind of one-hole situation. Is it crucial that the Cubs sign one of this offseason’s best free agent shortstops? No. But they need another bat in the infield. And they have a hard decision to make, in that regard, involving whether or not they believe Madrigal can be that bat.

The Screws Are Turning on the Brewers

Making yesterday even worse for Milwaukee (after we talked about the walk-offs), the Cardinals swept their doubleheader with the Cubs, moving even with the division leaders who are also even with the Phillies. Three teams, two playoff spots, and with the Giants now six and a half back after being swept by the Dodgers, that might be how it stays.

On paper, the Brewers should still be fine, and with the Reds in Wisconsin this weekend while the Cardinals deal with the Yankees, Milwaukee could even wake up on Monday in great shape. But it’s white-knuckle time for the Brewers, the time of year where, if you’re as close as these two are in the standings, three days can make a world of difference.

Other baseball things:

• Each scrapping in their respective Wild Card race, the Red Sox released Jackie Bradley Jr. and the Phillies released Didi Gregorius yesterday. Ends of eras there, most likely.
• Clayton Kershaw exited yesterday’s start with a back issue. He’s had other back issues recently. It’s the kind of thing that could turn out inconsequential, but it could also really cripple the Dodgers’ chances, especially in the playoffs. Aside from Walker Buehler, whose return is uncertain, Kershaw is the Dodgers’ top starter on paper, and while Julio Urías is more than solid and both Tyler Anderson and Tony Gonsolin are having great years, Los Angeles is looking like a team that could have to rely heavily on a bullpen that’s good, and has options, but has its own injury and performance questions.
• Justin Verlander threw six scoreless innings in Cleveland yesterday, improving his ERA to 1.73, his FIP to 2.98, and his career fWAR to 75.7, 25^th on the all-time list. At 39 years old, Verlander’s having something close to a career year. Reaching 200 innings is still on the table. His ERA is ridiculous. His FIP is very, very good. He’s not allowing home runs, his strikeouts are low but the contact quality is too, it’s another really impressive season, and it’s coming off two years almost entirely lost to injury. Ridiculously impressive season from Justin Verlander, who broke into the league right around the time steroids were really getting flushed out (and might be quelling some sticky-stuff doubts with this season, specifically).

Could Iowa State Rule the New Big 12?

We’re talking basketball here, and Kansas is still in the league, so the answer is no. But. It’s good to remember that Iowa State has just about as much potential, especially in men’s basketball, as anyone entering this new conference, which—thanks in part to its potential size—could conceivably be in the discussion annually as the basketball conference. The brand is strong. The recruiting is strong. The performance on the court last year was strong.

The peak years of the Hoiberg era may not have been where this program peaks, and we, at least, endorse unbridled optimism and grand aspirations.

The NBA’s Salary Cap Rules Are Nuts

From Hoops Rumors, in a piece about the Nets’ exploration of potentially trading Kevin Durant and/or Kyrie Irving:

“The designated rookie extension rule that prevents the Nets from acquiring certain players while Ben Simmons is on their roster further complicate certain straight-up trade scenarios — for instance, even if the Heat are willing to send Bam Adebayo to Brooklyn in a package for Durant, the two teams would likely need to bring in another team to take Simmons.”

Designated rookie extension rule. Mid-Level exception. Max extension sizes. I feel like those bloggers who know the NBA’s contract restrictions through and through should get at least a portion of a law degree for their efforts.

The Flames Came Out Pretty Well Here, Right?

When Johnny Gaudreau declined to seemingly even consider returning to Calgary, and when Matthew Tkachuk requested a trade, it looked rocky for the Flames. Then, even with Gaudreau just walking away in free agency, they managed to flip Tkachuk for a strong collection of assets that now includes nine full seasons of Jonathan Huberdeau. It’s a big commitment to Huberdeau, and with that comes risk, but the Flames remain in the upper realm of Stanley Cup futures for next year, and in the long term, they look like they’re in a better place personnel-wise than they might have had they retained Gaudreau and kept but not extended Tkachuk.

The lesson here? I think, and it’s possible I’m missing something but I think this is what happened here, that it’s that trading with a team facing a salary cap crunch, or any other sort of roster-restrictions-related crunch, is an advantageous thing to do. That applies across all sports.

Doubts on Doubs?

Through a week and a half of training camp, the biggest buzz in Green Bay (aside from the special teams work) seems to be about Romeo Doubs, the Packers’ fourth-round pick at wide receiver. It’s a bit of a recipe—mid-round receivers should be exceptional athletes, the receiver position has been a big question mark all offseason, and Aaron Rodgers can make a lot of pass-catchers look great. Still, a little bit of excitement, and someone to keep an eye on next Friday when the Pack play their first preseason game over in San Francisco.

An Update on Our Bets

Finally, a little update on our bets:

The motorsports (F1, IndyCar, NASCAR) continue to crush us. Need a more cohesive strategy on these next year. It’s a tough market, it seems, or at least betting solely on winners is tough. A short-term change may involve betting more conservative markets, but the fear of having our winners start winning when we stop betting them to win admittedly has us a little frozen.

We’ve been betting soccer futures, and we’re curious how this will go. Betting just one a week makes for a pretty thin portfolio, but trying thin portfolios might be a good idea. Our original MLB portfolios were thin, and those turned out well. Our college football futures last year were a thin portfolio, and that worked out well. Also, if we find we’re having some success, we can always turn up the nozzle, even this season. For now, the idea is to try a lot of these—including the NFL and the NBA—and see if futures, as a whole, are something we do well.

NASCAR and IndyCar bets on Sunday.

**

Viewing schedule for the weekend, second screen rotation in italics:

Friday

• 2:20 PM EDT: Miami @ Cubs, Cabrera vs. Steele (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ New York (NL), Anderson vs. Walker (MLB TV)
• 10:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Manaea vs. Gonsolin (MLB TV)
• 7:05 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore, Keller vs. Kremer (MLB TV)
• 7:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Gray vs. Gibson (Apple TV+)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Cleveland, Valdez vs. Gaddis (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Detroit, Kluber vs. Garcia (MLB TV)
• 8:05 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Texas, Cease vs. Otto (MLB TV)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Boston @ Kansas City, Winckowski vs. Greinke (MLB TV/ESPN+)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee, Dugger vs. Lauer (Apple TV+)
• 8:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Minnesota, Berríos vs. Mahle (MLB TV)
• 8:15 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ St. Louis, Cortes vs. Hudson (MLB TV)
• 10:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Seattle, Sandoval vs. Ray (MLB TV)

Saturday

• 10:00 AM EDT: Millwall @ Sheffield United (there’s no chance I’m finding this for free)
• 2:20 PM EDT: Miami @ Cubs, López vs. Smyly (FS1)
• 7:15 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ St. Louis, Germán vs. Montgomery (FOX)
• 1:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ New York (NL) – Game 1, Fried vs. Scherzer (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Seattle – Game 1, TBD vs. Flexen (MLB TV)
• 5:05 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore, Brubaker vs. Voth (MLB TV)
• 6:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Corbin vs. Suárez (MLB TV)
• 6:10 PM EDT: Houston @ Cleveland, Garcia vs. Quantrill (MLB TV)
• 6:10 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Detroit, McClanahan vs. Hill (MLB TV)
• 7:05 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Texas, Kopech vs. Dunning (MLB TV)
• 7:07 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Oakland, Rodón vs. Oller (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ New York (NL) – Game 2, Odorizzi vs. Peterson (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Boston @ Kansas City, Eovaldi vs. Lynch (MLB TV)
• 7:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Minnesota, TBD vs. Bundy (MLB TV)
• 7:15 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee, Lodolo vs. Ashby (FOX)
• 9:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Clevinger vs. Heaney (MLB TV)
• 10:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Seattle – Game 2, TBD vs. Kirby (MLB TV/ESPN+)

Sunday

• 9:00 AM EDT: Brentford @ Leicester City (Peacock)
• 2:20 PM EDT: Miami @ Cubs, Luzardo vs. Sampson (MLB TV)
• 7:00 PM EDT: San Diego @ Los Angeles, Darvish vs. Anderson (ESPN)
• 12:05 PM EDT: Houston @ Cleveland, Javier vs. McKenzie (Peacock)
• 1:35 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore, Wilson vs. Watkins (MLB TV)
• 1:35 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Abbott vs. Nola (MLB TV)
• 1:40 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Detroit, TBD vs. Manning (MLB TV)
• 2:10 PM EDT: Boston @ Kansas City, Crawford vs. Keller (MLB TV)
• 2:10 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee, Greene vs. Burnes (MLB TV)
• 2:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Minnesota, Gausman vs. Archer (MLB TV)
• 2:15 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ St. Louis, Montas vs. Wainwright (MLB TV)
• 2:35 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Texas, Giolito vs. Howard (MLB TV)
• 3:00 PM EDT: Big Machine Music City Grand Prix – IndyCar Street Race in Nashville (NBC)
• 3:00 PM EDT: FireKeepers Casino 400 – NASCAR Cup Series at Michigan (USA)
• 4:07 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Oakland, Webb vs. TBD (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Seattle, Detmers vs. Gonzales (MLB TV)
• 4:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ New York (NL), Strider vs. deGrom (MLB TV/ESPN+)