What happened last night, what’s happening tonight:
Could the Big 12 Send the Whole League to the Tournament?
If Oklahoma State were eligible…yes, it would be possible. But the “how” here is important, because it illustrates how narrow the window is. Here’s where our model sees things ending given all schedules remaining and all completed results so far:
The problem (besides NCAA silliness) is that for every big win TCU and Kansas State notch, beyond what’s expected of them (some big wins are expected), someone’s taking a bad loss. It’s comfortable at the moment to say that Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and even Iowa State and Texas Tech are safe, but none of those teams are locked in, and losing streaks against the top and middle of the league can put them in a vulnerable position should they supply the upset wins necessary for the Horned Frogs and the Wildcats to climb the ladder. It’s much better for the Big 12 (in this sense) if K-State beats Baylor than if K-State beats Oklahoma, because Baylor is a lock and the Sooners aren’t. Still…it’s possible, and the Big 12/SEC Challenge offers more meat for the league, which could hoist its whole self up a notch or two with a big weekend when that comes.
What’s Up with Texas?
This whole conversation, of course, is prompted by Kansas State’s upset of Texas last night, and it’s fair, after that, to ask what the hell is going on in Austin. The answer is…probably nothing that unusual. Texas has played nine games now against teams at or above an NIT level. They’ve gone 2-1 against the NIT-quality opposition and 2-4 against the NCAA Tournament-quality opposition. That’s not terrible, and their 17th-place rating in KenPom helps illustrate that. With Oklahoma State in town on Saturday and TCU on the road on Tuesday, there’s a chance Texas could take it hard on the chin, but there’s a better chance the Longhorns will string together a couple wins and get themselves back to where they were after the last time they played Kansas State, which is a place of not meeting expectations but only because initial expectations were unreasonably high. This roster is not a top-five roster. It’s a top-twenty roster, and it’s playing like it, and it’ll probably continue to play like it.
How Worried Should Duke Be?
Massive win for Florida State last night, who needed some wind in their sails. For Duke…I don’t know. It feels like we’re in a pretty clear place with Duke, which is that if they figure it out, a la Purdue against Illinois on Monday, we’ll be able to say they’re a national contender again, but in the meantime they’re in that space with Auburn and Kansas and Illinois where they’re clearly a very good team, but picking them to win a national title is a stretch. It complicates things that they play no more clear, current tournament locks until, well, probably the second round of the tournament.
Something to remember with this team is that it’s hard to play decent teams over and over again. If you have a bad night against a good team, you get some cover. Have a bad night against a mediocre team, it looks a lot worse.
How Worried Should UNC Be?
Elsewhere in the triangle, UNC is in bad shape. That was a much worse loss (to Miami by something like thirty points, I’m not looking up the exact final) than it appears on paper. Miami is much worse than it appears on paper. That loss is unlikely to age well, so thank goodness for the Tar Heels’ sake it was on the road.
UNC is not a very good basketball team, but at the same time, they’ve actually outperformed their preseason KenPom rating, which means that kind of like with Texas, their expectations were really off. They should be fine to make the tournament as long as they don’t lose too many to mediocre teams at home. You can lose to mediocre teams on the road and make the field. Just don’t start dropping games to bad teams (NC State, Louisville, Syracuse) or—ideally—mediocre ones (Florida State, Virginia Tech) on your own court.
Iowa State Thoughts
Bad second half for the Cyclones, but at some level, that’s how it goes in Lubbock. Texas Tech is good, Iowa State was due for a stinker. Regroup, refocus, take care of business Saturday against TCU back in Ames. That’s one you really want to win, and winning it would set the guys up for a shot at finishing January .500 in Big 12 play, which would be a huge success.
LSU/Alabama Tonight, Plus the Rest
In the SEC title race, Auburn’s currently pacing the field, and LSU and Alabama have each struggled enough that they could really use this win in Tuscaloosa. For the Tide, it’d be loss number four in a row. For the Tigers, it’d be a rough second act following Saturday’s debacle against Arkansas. It’s early, but Alabama’s probably legitimately out of the running in the conference if they don’t win tonight. Four losses is a lot when you still have to play Kentucky twice and Auburn and LSU each on the road, especially when the league’s got enough contenders that you figure one of Kentucky/Auburn/etc. will find a way to hit a mark of 14-4 or better.
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LSU/Bama’s on at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN2. Best game in the later slot is still in the SEC, with Kentucky tipping off against Texas A&M at 8:30 PM EST on SEC Network. Might be some other action tonight, but it’ll mostly be of the unexpected variety if it materializes, so be ready to channel surf as bedtime approaches.
