Ken Pomeroy brought the heat yesterday, so let’s all take a minute and appreciate that USC and Wyoming have functionally identical resumes. I’ve never taken a journalism course, but I wonder how many statistics credits those degrees require, and how much that hurts consumer understanding of various situations. Like, you know, pandemics. And college basketball.
What Is Purdue?
Had Purdue not done that thing where they lost at Rutgers and then almost lost to NC State and then opened the new year losing at home to Wisconsin, we probably wouldn’t have thought much of their loss at Indiana last night. Rivalry game, solid opponent, all that. It’s possible that’s all the result was, too. But Purdue, arguably the third-likeliest team to win the national championship (it does seem we’re settling in to a Gonzaga/Baylor top two again, at least from my vantage point), is only 4-3 in the Big Ten, and there are legitimate consistency questions that come with that. The Boilers should be favored in every game from here until the Elite Eight, if they get there, but there’s also a solid chance they lose one again in these next three and we’re asking the question all over again. The Big Ten is tough.
Cockburn’s Concussion, Badgers vs. Spartans
Kofi Cockburn has a concussion, which…sucks. Concussions suck. Hopefully the guy recovers quickly and fully and has no lasting effects, but to talk about it in the context of the Big Ten race for a moment: It opens things up a little. And Wisconsin—currently projected to finish second in the league (behind Illinois, not Purdue) and having already beaten Purdue on the road—could end up with a Big Ten title and a 5-seed, which would be quite the season for Wisconsin stereotypes. Huge one tonight against Michigan State in Madison.
Kentucky’s Moment?
Elsewhere in the national title conversation, we get Kentucky @ Auburn tomorrow, with an LSU @ Tennessee undercard and even a pretty nice Texas A&M @ Arkansas under-undercard as the SEC continues to give us great basketball. For Kentucky, it could be a coming out party. For Auburn, it could be the separation moment in a conference title campaign. No other possible in-league matchup, aside from maybe Baylor/Kansas, is as good on paper given where teams stack up right now.
How Real Is Miami?
Miami is a team, for us at least, it’s easy to forget. Yet every now and then we check in on them and they’ve climbed another dozen spots in KenPom and they’re still in first place in the ACC.
Tuesday’s win was bigger than we realized in the moment. They eviscerated UNC, and we took the UNC side of the narrative, but the Miami side is loud. The ACC’s set up perfectly for a team which wins a lot of close games to keep pace with Duke, and Miami—who beat Duke on the road, doesn’t have to play them again, and is now 5-1 in single-digit conference games (2-1 in one-possession conference games) is following the script. They host Florida State tomorrow. Winner’s in first place. It would be easier to dismiss them if there were a single good team other than Duke in the mix.
Mountain West, Missouri State, and Other Mid-Majors
In the Mountain West, Boise State visits San Diego State in a clash of arguably the league’s two best teams. The Mountain West has a decent shot at five bids, if they can really split down the middle, and certainly three or four if New Mexico and Air Force and San José State don’t mess it up. Boise State and San Diego State, alongside Colorado State, who’s lost to the Aztecs, are at the forefront of that push.
In the Missouri Valley, we’ve been waiting for Missouri State to make their move. All the Bears’ losses but the one at Saint Mary’s have come by two possessions or less, and they’ve laid enough eggs in conference play to be limping through two games back of Loyola right now heading into the first matchup between the two. If they’re going to make any sort of at-large push, they need a big road win, and tomorrow’s trip to Chicago would qualify.
Finally, UAB goes to Louisiana Tech for one that could bolster the Blazers’ fading at-large hopes or, alternatively, shake up the race for the Conference USA title, giving Kenneth Lofton & Co. a two-game lead. Oddly, Conference USA is still doing divisions, and oddly, the three best teams in the league—these guys and North Texas—are all in the West. Maybe it’ll work out.
How Iowa State Should Beat TCU
TCU has struggled mightily with turnovers, but they crash the offensive glass better than anyone in the nation, making tomorrow both advantageous and treacherous for the Cyclones in Ames. Defensively, the Frogs are tough inside, but they’re prone from getting burned from deep, which is…too tempting, maybe? I don’t know. Probably just need to lock the door defensively and win a should-win. Path to .500 in league play is still to sweep TCU and K-State, get swept by KU and Baylor, and split with the rest.
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Weekend games of note for us, time, television:
- Illinois @ Maryland, Friday, 7:00 PM EST, FS1
- Michigan State @ Wisconsin, Friday, 9:00 PM EST, FS1
- West Virginia @ Texas Tech, Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2
- Syracuse @ Duke, Saturday, 12:00 PM EST, ESPN
- Kentucky @ Auburn, Saturday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS
- Florida State @ Miami, Saturday, 2:00 PM EST, ESPN
- Baylor @ Oklahoma, Saturday, 3:00 PM EST, ESPN+
- Missouri State @ Loyola, Saturday, 3:30 PM EST, CBSSN
- TCU @ Iowa State, Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN2
- UAB @ Louisiana Tech, Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, Stadium
- Kansas @ Kansas State, Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, ESPN+
- LSU @ Tennessee, Saturday, 6:00 PM EST, ESPN
- North Carolina @ Wake Forest, Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ACC Network
- Texas A&M @ Arkansas, Saturday, 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network
- Boise State @ San Diego State, Saturday, 9:30 PM EST, CBSSN
- Northwestern @ Purdue, Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, BTN
- Xavier @ Marquette, Sunday, 2:00 PM EST, FS1
- Arizona @ California, Sunday, 3:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Networks
- Michigan @ Indiana, Sunday, 3:30 PM EST, CBS
