Right before the Big Ten TV deal was finalized last week and our attention was directed back toward watching the skies for another realignment storm (which has yet to happen, though we’re still in any-minute mode on news regarding the remaining Pac-12 schools), ESPN’s Pete Thamel published a report that the College Football Playoff’s board of managers—eleven college presidents and chancellors, one from each FBS conference plus Notre Dame’s John Jenkins—had briefly discussed the concept of “major college football” moving outside of the NCAA’s governance.
The conversation was reportedly only five minutes; the report came amidst a news desert; the report’s a beneficial narrative for ESPN, which has a partnership with the College Football Playoff, the assumed governing entity that would take over in the NCAA’s stead. It’s not a new idea, either. Jenkins has been publicly discussing leaving the NCAA since a 2015 New York Times profile, and he blasted the organization in 2018 for vacating the Irish’s 2012 and 2013 wins over a student-to-student, self-reported cheating issue while letting North Carolina off free for creating what was, in essence, a fake major that allowed certain athletes to abstain from taking real classes. In some senses, too, college football already operates separately from the NCAA. The FBS level of college football is the only NCAA sport which does not rely on the NCAA to determine its champion, a practice which curiously dates back throughout the sport’s entire history. The NCAA’s relationship with college football has always been odd, a situation of one foot in and one foot out. Formal departure would be a big step, but it wouldn’t be as significant as basketball leaving the NCAA.
A natural question arising here is what, exactly, the NCAA does in its “governance” of college football, if it does not lead the sport in finding its champion. The answer is varied. It determines scholarship numbers. It determines the rules of the game. It determines practice regulations. Crucially, it both sets and is in charge of enforcing rules regarding academic and recruiting eligibility. It’s this last part—the enforcing—that it does very poorly, and while it does it poorly in basketball as well, there are a lot more college football players than college basketball players. Even with nearly 50% more schools supporting Division I men’s basketball than supporting Division I football, there are more than four times as many D-I scholarships available to football players than are available to men’s basketball players. Account as well for how large an industry college football is—on par with the entire NBA, in our recent estimate—and keeping college football above-board is a much taller task than keeping college basketball above-board. And it’s not like college basketball is particularly above-board.
Given the widespread frustration with the NCAA and given the organization’s recent legal defeats, we’ve spoken a lot on here about the potential death of the NCAA. It would track, instinctively, that the departure of football would hasten this. But—as the good bard says—not so fast, my friend.
The NCAA doesn’t make any money on college football. Or at least, it doesn’t make much. The organization makes almost all of its money through two channels: The first is ticket sales to its various championships—the NCAA Tournaments, the College World Series, the FCS Playoff, the Frozen Fours. The second is television and marketing deals for the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament. This second one provides the NCAA with, as of 2019, over 80% of its annual revenue, and I’d imagine the men’s basketball NCAA Tournament turns in a large contribution to the first channel as well. The NCAA’s business model, or whatever the adjacency is there for an organization that is not technically a business, is just the NCAA Tournament subsidizing everything the organization does. And if “everything” involves trying to find a way to effectively regulate college football at the Power Five level, a sport massively different than any other NCAA sport including big-money basketball, college football is a taker, not a maker, in this realm.
This isn’t to say that the NCAA is hemorrhaging money on football. The amount of money the NCAA spends on the sport is not a large percentage of the money which passes through the NCAA every year. This isn’t about saving the NCAA financially, nor is the NCAA in any financial distress. Instead, it’s to say that the NCAA takes on no financial risk by losing big-money college football, and by shedding itself of the most prominent “college sport,” which is simultaneously the one from which the vast majority of qualms about the NCAA’s performance arise, it would lose a headache and little else. It could focus more fully on the rest of college sports, and while men’s basketball would remain challenging, there’s reason to believe that the NIL system and new transfer rules will, once they settle out, leave all parties in a more stable place.
I don’t know how NCAA officials react when fresh speculation on football leaving arises. But I’d imagine that, for at least some, the emotion is relief. College football leaving would not spark NCAA disintegration. It might keep the organization alive.
Jake Remsburg Is Hurt
From the macro to the micro:
Iowa State offensive lineman Jake Remsburg, who hurt his knee in the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon and then only played special teams last year while recovering, is currently day-to-day and is uncertain to play against Southeast Missouri State in the September 3rd opener. There’s some good here—he’s not out, and the Cyclones should be fine against SEMO at less than full strength—but overall, it’s a tough blow for ISU, already dealing with so much roster turnover.
Did We Ever Parse the Nonconference Schedule?
Sticking with Iowa State for a minute, I remember the nonconference schedule release but I don’t remember if we ever talked through where it sets the team up.
In total, the nonconference slate breaks down as follows:
- 7 Games: Buy Games
- 3 Games: Phil Knight Invitational
- 1 Game: Iowa (A)
- 1 Game: Big 12/Big East Challenge – St. John’s (H)
- 1 Game: Big 12/SEC Challenge – Missouri (A)
Compared to last year, that’s the same number of buy games and the same number of non-buy games. The Iowa game should be comparably tough, with the Hawkeyes expected to be worse but the game on the road. The Big East game should be easier: St. John’s is expected to be comparable to last year’s Creighton, and Iowa State played Creighton on the road. The SEC game should be tougher: Mizzou’s expected to be better, and the game’s on the road. The nonconference tournament effectively replaces both last year’s NIT Season Tip-Off and the home date against Oregon State, and though a second-round matchup with Portland is the most likely scenario there (ISU plays Villanova, UNC plays Portland, the winners play and the losers play), the combination of playing Villanova in the first round and one of UConn/Alabama/Michigan State/Oregon in the third round should leave that as a net boost to strength of schedule, and relatedly as a bigger challenge for the ‘Clones.
Where things split a bit for Iowa State between the challenge of the schedule and the Nonconference Strength of Schedule number (something our research indicates only matters if it’s very, very bad) is how much the latter depends on the eventual strength of the buy game opponents. That’s a big portion of the slate percentage-wise, but every game is one Iowa State should comfortably win. Even with that, though, Iowa State should be fine. Its buy game opponents were awful last year, on the aggregate, and the team’s NET nonconference strength of schedule came out in the low 200’s, close to the middle of the pack. With the six non-buy game opponents a small aggregate step up, that number shouldn’t be in the 300’s, and if it’s not in the 300’s, we don’t need to worry about it.
How many can the Cyclones win? Ten seems to be the number. A 10-3 mark. Assume wins in all the buy games, a loss to Villanova, a win over Portland, and Iowa State’s left needing to go 2-2 against Iowa, Mizzou, St. John’s, and their third PK85 opponent. Mizzou and St. John’s are should-wins, Iowa and the third PK85 opponent are should-loses, surprises should even out. That’s the baseline, and it leaves ISU probably needing something like an 8-11 mark across Big 12 regular season and tournament play to make the NCAA Tournament (the overall strength of schedule should be excellent, thanks to the Big 12). Those are our benchmarks, two and a half months out.
The Yankees, the Cardinals, the Mets
The Yankees, the Mets, and the Cardinals are each, per FanGraphs, between 84% and 91% likely to capture their respective division crowns. As you might guess, the team that leads by eight games is closer to the 91% end, and those that lead by four and five are closer to 84%, but these are similar numbers. 84%’s around five-in-six, or the probability of not rolling a one on a single roll of a single di. 91%’s around ten-in-eleven, or the probability that if you pick one of the non-Judas disciples’ names out of a hat, it’ll be anyone but the shorter of the two guys named James. All three teams are rather safe. But the situations are distinct.
The Cardinals are on a tear, winners of seven straight and a whopping 17 of their last 21, with half their losses coming in a three-day stretch in Denver. Over this same period, the Brewwers have wilted, winning nine and losing twelve. That’s an eight-game swing in the standings, which has the contradictory effect of making the Cardinals seem presently unbeatable and the Brewers presently decrepit but also existing within the lingering memory of a world in which the Brewers were comfortable NL Central favorites.
The Mets are playing rather well. They’ve won 21 of their last 28, and in the midst of that, they’ve gotten Jacob deGrom back from injury. With Atlanta going 17-10 over the period, New York’s gained three and a half games, but with Atlanta now winners of eleven of their last thirteen, including a three-games-to-one series win over the Mets? There’s a sense—a rather wrong sense, frankly—that the Mets are under a more significant threat than they are.
The Yankees are stumbling. Since the All-Star Break, they’ve lost twenty games and won just ten, and in August, their record is a woeful 5-14. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are 15-12 since the Break and 8-10 in August, and the Rays are 14-14 since the Break and 11-7 in August, which is to say that though the Yankees have opened the door, they’ve dodged a bullet with their chief competition failing, in large part, to step through that opening. Their narrative is one of panic, but the odds remain long on Toronto and Tampa Bay in the markets, in another contradiction.
There isn’t much to take away here besides how different the routes can be to a largely similar place, and how different largely similar places can look when viewed in context. Such is baseball down the stretch. Things get a little wonky, and recency bias gets larger. Let’s talk about the weekend’s games:
AL East
The Yankees needed some late-inning heroics yesterday from Lou Trivino to avoid a four-game sweep at home at the hands of Toronto. The Rays took two of a weekend three to win a four-game set over the Royals, holding even with the Jays, eight games and seven losses back of the Yanks.
In bad Rays news, Wander Franco’s rehab assignment has been paused. His hand remains sore, and the timeline is now unclear. In good Rays news, Manuel Margot is back active. In good Yankees news, Zack Britton’s throwing again and could be back this year, and Giancarlo Stanton’s out on a rehab assignment.
AL Wild Card
On the Wild Card side of things, the Mariners tripped a little bit, losing two of three in Oakland, and that leaves them percentage points back of the Rays/Jays combo, holding the six-seed two and a half games clear of Minnesota and Baltimore. Baltimore, meanwhile, keeps staying alive, winning last night’s Little League Classic over the Red Sox to finish a series win. That series began with a 15-10 bash-off won by the home team at Camden Yards which featured five home runs, four players with multiple doubles, and 24 runs scored before the beginning of the sixth.
In bad Red Sox news, Nathan Eovaldi’s going to miss another start with neck/shoulder soreness. Might go on the IL.
AL Central
The White Sox and Guardians split before rain washed away yesterday’s rubber match. Johnny Cueto nearly went the distance on Saturday in Chicago’s victory. The Twins tripped up the last two days against the Rangers, losing the series there. Cleveland now leads Minnesota by a game and a half and Chicago by two and a half games.
Yasmani Grandal hurt his knee in the win on Saturday, but all the ligaments and tendons are still intact, and he’s expected to come back in just a couple weeks. Still, those are a big couple weeks for the White Sox to be without one of their best players, and Tim Anderson also remains sidelined. Tyler Mahle, up in Minneapolis, has gone on the IL himself, but he should be back in a few weeks, and Kenta Maeda may be available late in the season to pitch out of the bullpen.
NL East
The Mets took three of four down in Philadelphia, Mark Canha’s seventh-inning three-run homer tying things before his ninth-inning two-run homer put the Mets on top by a run. Atlanta beat the Astros in two of three, their Saturday night win an eleven-inning thriller walked off by a Travis d’Arnaud single. The Mets gained half a game, now leading by those four, and the Phillies slipped to the sixth position in the Wild Card race, a game and a half up on the Brewers.
In happy news for the Phillies, Bryce Harper is scheduled to start a rehab assignment this week. In unhappier news, Seranthony Domínguez is going on the IL, with a tricep MRI scheduled soon, and Corey Knebel’s been moved from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL, keeping him out the remainder of the season. Good thing they traded for David Robertson.
NL Central
The Cardinals continued to mash, scoring 27 on the weekend while getting another two-homer day out of Albert Pujols on Saturday. He’s now just eight home runs away from 700, and while he’s only hit thirteen on the season to date, he’s also hit five in the last eight days. The Brewers dropped two of three to the Cubs, with Devin Williams blowing the save on Saturday with a three-walk, one-hit ninth.
The Brewers did get Omar Narváez back from the IL. Welcome development for them.
NL West
The Dodgers kept rolling, sweeping the Marlins to bring their season win percentage up to .700, a 113-win pace. Their remaining schedule isn’t easy, and with an 18-game lead in the division and an eight-loss lead on home-field advantage, they’ll likely rest some starters. So, setting the single-season wins record is probably not on the table. But: Lot of wins! The Padres recovered Saturday and Sunday after dropping their first two to the Nationals. They’re now half a game up on the Phillies, with Atlanta seven and a half ahead and appearing unreachable. The Giants are still flashing a small (3.2% on FanGraphs) playoff chance, but losing their series in Colorado didn’t help things.
Going back to the Dodgers for a minute: Clayton Kershaw could be back in just a few weeks, if not sooner.
The League
Aaron Judge has a one-WAR lead over Shohei Ohtani, making him a rather significant AL MVP favorite, and the latter’s campaign took another hit yesterday when he left his start in Detroit with a stomach bug after four innings, four walks, and three runs. Hope that man is feeling better today.
The Cubs
That win on Saturday was just really, really fun. Every bit of it. Nick Madrigal’s heroics, Willson Contreras’s heroics. It’s corny, but there was a lot of joy. Marcus Stroman stayed hot on the mound, everybody with a microphone wanted to give Nico Hoerner’s defense some love, it came against the Brewers and featured a foible by Christian Yelich…just perfect.
Yesterday’s game was great as well, until it wasn’t. Outstanding start from Justin Steele, Seiya Suzuki homered, the Cubs put a ton of pressure on Brandon Woodruff in the first…and then it just didn’t come through. But, well, that’s why this year’s team is what it is, and isn’t competing for the division title.
A question I’ve been having over this hot stretch is how much has been the Cubs, and how much has been their opponents. To that end: Beginning August 5th (when the current 11-5 run kicked off), the Cubs have the ninth-best wRC+ in baseball (compared to 19th-best over the full season so far) and the 17th-best FIP (compared to 25th-best over the full season so far). In other words, they’ve been playing fine, and certainly better than their overall performance, but they’ve been getting some help, possibly through luck and definitely through not playing a single team in playoff position. This week’s five against St. Louis will be tough, especially with some spot starters mixed in between Smyly, Sampson, and Stroman.
News:
- Kyle Hendricks will resume throwing this week, but he’s not expecting to pitch any more this year in MLB games.
- Patrick Wisdom hurt his finger sliding into home on Saturday, but x-rays were negative.
- Keegan Thompson is going on the IL with tightness in his lower back. He’d been struggling a bit as of late, so it’s possible this is partially a good way to get him some rest. Anderson Espinoza was called back up in the corresponding move.
- Wade Miley suffered another setback. More shoulder tightness. He’ll pitch some again today, but it’s possible he’ll end up shut down.
- On the minor league front, Alexander Canario’s coming up to AAA, but Jordan Wicks got hurt in his start this weekend—no idea what that is—and Miguel Amaya dislocated his finger and will miss a little more time.
Good Stuff in Green Bay
The Packers won on Friday in preseason action against the Saints, but the better parts of the reports are that Jordan Love threw some good passes and that David Bakhtiari’s off the PUP list (he didn’t play in the game Friday, but we’re talking broad preseason news here). Romeo Doubs keeps dropping passes and keeps making outrageous plays, two things where you’d love a receiver to do both but you’ll settle for one of the two if you have to.
With Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins both active in practice, it’s highly unlikely neither is expected to be able to play Week 1, given where that would leave the Packers in offensive line depth against the Vikings. So, who’ll catch the passes remains a question, but who’ll block for Rodgers and Jones and Dillon is looking clearer, and in a good way.
One for Two on the Track
We almost swept the weekend with our NASCAR and IndyCar picks, which is to say that in this case, favorites almost swept the weekend. Tough loss with Chase Elliott yesterday, getting bumped out of the lead by Kyle Larson, but that’s what happens when you don’t successfully drive away with it on one of those road courses, and it seems a little bit like Hendrick’s just been unable to get their drivers driving away with races this year, even with nine wins on the season. On the IndyCar side, it was a relief to see them not call the race on account of rain, and the David Malukas run at the end was scary as Josef Newgarden bettors but I do wonder if Newgarden had more speed in his car and was saving it to avoid hitting complications amidst lapped traffic.
With NASCAR at Watkins Glen, it was interesting to be reminded how European-adjacent that track and Road America are conceptually: Road course speedways in a scenic, natural place. It’s interesting, then, that as Formula 1 grows its footprint in America, it’s eschewing these sorts of places in favor of more glamorous destinations. Miami was out at a suburban stadium, but it was a suburban stadium near Miami. Austin is at COTA, a high-quality raceway but not exactly a scenic one (it’s not in Hill Country), and it’s near Austin. Las Vegas is going to take place, in part, on the actual Las Vegas Strip.
This probably speaks to where F1’s popularity lies in the United States. The new American fans aren’t into F1 for the reasons of their predecessors or their European counterparts. They’re into F1 because it’s glitzy. It’s not a universal truth, of course—it’s easy to overgeneralize on things like this—but on the aggregate? Hard to say this isn’t the case, and the choice of locales reflects that. F1’s objectives in America are more about the parties than the racing. That’s why the Miami “race” was a single-file parade through a decorated parking lot. That’s what the market demands.
**
Viewing schedule for the day, second screen rotation in italics:
- 2:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Kansas City, Kopech vs. Lynch (MLB TV)
- 8:05 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Cubs, Montgomery vs. Smyly (MLB TV)
- 3:00 PM EDT: Liverpool @ Manchester United (Peacock)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Pittsburgh, Odorizzi vs. Contreras (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia, Cessa vs. Syndergaard (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ New York (AL), Scherzer vs. Germán (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Anaheim @ Tampa Bay, Davidson vs. Springs (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Texas @ Minnesota, Ragans vs. Gray (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Los Angeles, Lauer vs. Urías (MLB TV)
