By my count, there are at least five games this weekend that are going to tell us a hell of a lot about the national college basketball picture. There are others that could—UConn’s playing a conference game on the road, which always brings an air of danger—but there are five great big ones. What a weekend. Let’s talk about the five.
Indiana @ Kansas
Kansas is one of the most believable championship contenders, but they’re in a weird place. They’ve played four “medium” teams and two good ones, which should be a good sample, and yet it’s left us with questions. What was going on in the Bahamas? Just Bill Self re-entry? Or something more? We *think* Kansas is reliably good, but we don’t know it yet.
On the Indiana side, they’d love to be a player in the national picture, but at the moment, they’re not even in the conversation as the best team in their state. Purdue is so clearly better than them that the Hoosiers are playing catch-up, and while taking care of UNC and Nebraska was good, they’ve been bullied twice in the last two weeks now. Once by Rutgers. Nice opportunity for them, but it’s easy to see it getting out of hand.
Gonzaga vs. Alabama
One more step into the sphere (we’re going chronologically throughout the day Saturday, but it’s almost also in order of importance), Alabama’s trying to get respect from people like us, people who see these recent wins and despite how impressive they were say, “Yeah, but what else?” Nate Oats can coach. He’s not just a recruiter. But is he good enough at that and is his team talented enough to really crack into that top category? The field’s open, but “Alabama basketball” doesn’t scream dominance right now. Maybe this is a perception problem.
Gonzaga looks like something’s wrong. Part of this is relativity—they were so dominant for the last few years that they can beat NIU by 21 and still have to listen to us ringing alarm bells—but the issues are there. The defense is susceptible. They’ve been blown out twice. The pieces are good, but not great, and the team flashed positive against Kentucky but they have to get better. Putting another SEC feather in their cap would give them something of a lane. At least we could tell ourselves they’re better than the whole SEC (although…Tennessee).
Houston @ Virginia
Virginia’s best competition so far has come from three teams that wanted to be contenders but are struggling. Of the three, Baylor seems like a decent bet to right the ship, but Illinois and Michigan are troubled, and even if Baylor does stand back up, Virginia caught them when they were down. There aren’t questions about the Cavaliers in specific areas so much as there’s one big question surrounding them, which is whether they’re merely the best team in the ACC or actually potentially the best team in the country. We know what kind of team they are. They have no glaring flaws. But is the cumulative strength enough?
For Houston, this is the last game before hibernation, and after last weekend’s collapse, they’re in danger of making it to Super Bowl Sunday (literally, that’s the day they first play Memphis) with their best win a game in Fort Worth against Saint Mary’s. Some of this is résumé stuff, which doesn’t matter at the top as much as it matters on the bubble (if Houston’s good, they’re good, whether we know it or not), but we need to see more from this offense, and we need to see it consistently, without the bottom falling out. That latter part can’t be proven in one game, but scoring 70 against the Pack Line would be a start.
UCLA vs. Kentucky
The big one.
It’s easy to say that Kentucky sceptics are overweighting the Saint Peter’s game last March. It’s also easy to observe, though, that a team who’s mostly looked as good as expected took a turn and looked quite mediocre on two separate occasions, and those two occasions were the biggest opportunities they had, even if one was only against Michigan State. The difference between a team of one-and-dones and a veteran team led by Oscar Tshiebwe and Sahvir Wheeler is that the latter shouldn’t have so much improving to do. Something hasn’t clicked yet in Lexington.
UCLA, meanwhile, would love to have its moment, and may be having its moment. Decimate Maryland in College Park and then take down Big Blue in Manhattan three days later? That’s a heck of a week, and could make us ask this question: Has anyone shown as much so far as Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins?
Tennessee @ Arizona
Finally, in the late game in Tucson, Tennessee’s trying to win on the road. It’s the Vols’ first away game of the season, and the Wildcats have something to avenge after last winter’s refereeing debacle in Knoxville. Tennessee is climbing, but they’re an ugly basketball team to watch. Their games are cage matches. It’s like Texas Tech or Houston or, for the Iowa State fans in the room, Iowa State. It’s a higher quality than Iowa State, but the idea’s the same: The offense is rough, but the defense is rougher, and in the most effective way.
A hypothesis we’re considering is that to win those six games in a row in March, you need to be good enough on defense and both good enough and consistent enough on offense. Our qualm with Tennessee, then, is the same as our qualm with Houston: What if the offense doesn’t show up? This is kind of what happened with Virginia in 2018. A lot of that game was UMBC’s shooting (which proposes that consistency should be part of the defense question as well), but UVA was disastrously inefficient.
With Arizona, the defense isn’t merely inconsistent, like Houston or Tennessee’s offense. It’s outright bad. It’s a bad defense. It can get better, but for the time being, Arizona is mostly just a dose of lightning. They’re powerful and potent, but they should be gone in a flash.
Big collision of strengths and weaknesses in this one.
Narváez to the Mets
This one stings. Narváez should be really good as a part-time catcher, and would’ve been a perfectly designed compliment to Yan Gomes in a platoon (rather, Gomes would’ve been a good compliment to Narváez). But, maybe it’s a good sign about how the Cubs feel about Miguel Amaya? If it’s that, though, what was with the Christian Vázquez pursuit, etc.
Either way, the Mets got Narváez for cheap. Really cheap. And the Mets reinforcing the catcher position feels like salt in the wound, given the trade market sparring there over Willson Contreras. You have to hope that this means the Cubs are in on bigger things, or that Narváez and/or the Cubs just didn’t like the other for some reason. It’s the new most frustrating non-signing.
Rodón to the Yankees
Oh yeah, that whole thing. Recent Cy Young winner signed. Possible best pitcher on the market signed.
Six years is a lot for Rodón, but it’s worth remembering that with the Yankees’ revenue, it’s fair to ask them to do things it’s unfair to ask of others. I wouldn’t have prioritized Rodón were I a GM, knowing what little I know, but of every team, the Yankees make the most sense when it comes to handing out stupid deals. They can afford to be a little stupid.
Conforto a Cub?
The Cubs are reportedly in on Michael Conforto, who’d be a fun pickup in helping pivot Cody Bellinger to first base, potentially. High upside, high downside with Conforto, but that’s a great fit for a team who’s a long way away (and the Cubs are a long way away).
Final thoughts on the Cubs for the week? I think they’re going to get Dansby Swanson, and if they don’t, I still support the trajectory. I’m frustrated about the catching situation, but willing to be surprised. I’m frustrated about the rotation, but I understand what they’re doing and understand Corey Kluber and Drew Smyly might still sign, which would make the whole thing feel fine (though not good). I think the thing we all need to accept is that this team is not making the playoffs again in 2023, and that wanting that was reasonable a year ago but has turned out unreasonable. Players just haven’t developed like they would’ve needed to if that was going to be a possibility. They’ve developed well, as a whole, but not well enough.
The White Sox Just Did Something Smart
As this was going to press, reports emerged that the White Sox signed Andrew Benintendi to a five-year deal worth $15M/year. For a 28-year old with Benintendi’s projections, that’s a great price. Congratulations to the White Sox, who do not usually do things that look wise in free agency, or anywhere.
Playoffs! Bowls!
North Dakota State and South Dakota State host FCS semifinals tonight and tomorrow, and bowl games have begun as well. On the bowl side, we’re trying something in our bets where we pick the team to cover whose coach has the worse record in bowl games. We tried the opposite last year, it didn’t work at first, and then when we pivoted to this, it did work, so we’re hoping for more of that.
With the FCS and betting, we’re going to be in on both Dakotas, though I’m curious about the NDSU line sliding like it has, from 9.5 to 7.5. Movelor, and I’d assume similar models, think highly of Incarnate Word, but this has the feeling of a CFP semifinal where the favorite is just too much better to have fully demonstrated it yet. Montana State is a curiosity, especially after Holy Cross put the fear of the Holy Cross into South Dakota State, but with that one too, it feels like a deke. I know I’m talking feeling here, and not numbers, and that kind of goes against my ideals, but I do think feeling can sometimes be a valuable input, so long as you can replicate the thought process behind the feeling. For me right now, the thought process is that the MVFC is really freaking good. Especially in December. Maybe that’s outdated. I don’t think it is.
On the bowl side outside of the betting, it’s just fun. Bowls are fun. They’re light, they’re happy, they’re like an epilogue to the season. Especially these early ones. Just a lot of fun.
Do the Packers Control Their Fate?
With Brock Purdy beating the Seahawks last night (God bless that man, this is so fun and so Brock Purdy, he’s going to frustrate some other team’s fans for years after this offseason), the Packers’ playoff chances got that much more of a boost. But are they in control of their own destiny yet?
According to ESPN’s Playoff Machine, it’s a firm “No.” I put in Win Percentage as the determining variable, then clicked the Packers as winners in all their games, and they still didn’t make the playoffs.
But.
Once you switch this weekend’s Giants/Commanders game to either side winning, the Packers slide in. And they stay in there even if the Lions win out aside from the head-to-head matchup. The Seahawks are still a problem if they win out, but the Packers probably control their fate. The winning is the hard part. Other teams falling should happen. (But no, we don’t want a tie on Sunday Night. Need one of those teams to start a fast decline.)
Smooth One, Jim
Jim Irsay on interviewing Jeff Saturday (from Pro Football Talk):
I’m looking forward to the interview process,” Irsay said this week. “I think Jeff’s a candidate, but there’s a lot of great candidates out there. I think there’s a lot of great candidates in college. I think the pool needs to be broadened somewhat more. There’s some great college coaches that may be capable. There’s some unknown coaches that may be capable.”
Sure, Jim. Definitely believe you on this. Definitely won’t be token interviews.
The Rooney Rule is a bad solution to a real problem (a better solution would be an NFL investment in developing Black coaches, or for owners to recognize a market inefficiency that the Rooney Rule implies exists), and one of the ways it’s such a bad solution is how easily it turns into a bunch of patronizing interviews. It’s got to suck to be the coaches doing those interviews. Just get rid of the stupid rule.
**
Viewing schedule for the weekend, second screen rotation in italics:
College Basketball (of national interest, plus Iowa State)
- Friday, 8:30 PM EST: Creighton @ Marquette (FS1)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Indiana @ Kansas (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Gonzaga vs. Alabama (CBS)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Houston @ Virginia (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 3:00 PM EST: Ohio State vs. North Carolina (CBS)
- Saturday, 5:15 PM EST: UCLA vs. Kentucky (CBS)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: UConn @ Butler (FS1)
- Saturday, 10:30 PM EST: Tennessee @ Arizona (ESPN2)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Western Michigan @ Iowa State (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Stanford vs. Texas (ESPN2)
- Sunday, 10:00 PM EST: Washington State vs. Baylor (ESPN2)
College Football Bowls
- Friday, 11:30 AM EST: Bahamas Bowl – Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB (ESPN)
- Friday, 3:00 PM EST: Cure Bowl – UTSA vs. Troy (ESPN)
- Saturday, 11:00 AM EST: Fenway Bowl – Cincinnati vs. Louisville (ESPN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Celebration Bowl – Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central (ABC)
- Saturday, 2:30 PM EST: Las Vegas Bowl – Florida vs. Oregon State (ESPN)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: LA Bowl – Washington State vs. Fresno State (ABC)
- Saturday, 5:45 PM EST: LendingTree Bowl (Mobile Alabama Bowl) – Rice vs. Southern Miss (ESPN)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: New Mexico Bowl – SMU vs. BYU (ABC)
- Saturday, 9:15 PM EST: Frisco Bowl – North Texas vs. Boise State (ESPN)
FCS Semifinals
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Incarnate Word @ North Dakota State (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Montana State @ South Dakota State (ESPN2)
NFL (of playoff significance)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: Indianapolis @ Minnesota (NFL Network)
- Saturday, 4:30 PM EST: Baltimore @ Cleveland (NFL Network)
- Saturday, 8:15 PM EST: Miami @ Buffalo (NFL Network)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Atlanta @ New Orleans (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Detroit @ New York Jets (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Pittsburgh @ Carolina (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Dallas @ Jacksonville (FOX)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Kansas City @ Houston (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:05 PM EST: New England @ Las Vegas (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: Tennessee @ Los Angeles Chargers (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EST: Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay (CBS)
- Sunday, 8:20 PM EST: New York Giants @ Washington (NBC)
NBA (best game each day, plus the Bulls)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EST: Brooklyn @ Toronto (League Pass)
- Friday, 8:00 PM EST: New York @ Bulls (League Pass)
- Saturday, 9:00 PM EST: New Orleans @ Phoenix (NBA TV)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: Golden State @ Toronto (League Pass)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EST: Bulls @ Minnesota (League Pass)
NHL (best game each day)
- Friday, 9:00 PM EST: St. Louis @ Calgary (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Dallas @ Carolina (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 5:00 PM EST: Pittsburgh @ Carolina (ESPN+)
World Cup
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Croatia vs. Morocco (FOX)
- Sunday, 10:00 AM EST: Argentina vs. France (FOX)
EFL Championship (best games)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Middlesbrough @ Burnley
- Saturday, 12:30 PM EST: Blackburn @ Norwich (ESPN+)
