There’s an old line in baseball about not checking the standings until Memorial Day Weekend.
Here we are.
The eight playoff races, how they’ve changed since Opening Day, and where they’re going, with a lot of help from FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds:
NL East
| Team | W–L | Exp. W–L | Pre. Exp. W–L |
| Philadelphia | 37–14 | 96.5–65.5 | 84.9–77.1 |
| Atlanta | 29–18 | 96.6–65.4 | 98.1–77.1 |
Through nearly two months, the Phillies have been the best team in baseball, hot enough to make the 100-win-pace Braves look cold. This is the biggest story in the game. But. There’s a long way to go. The six-win lead is only enough to make the division title a coin toss in the eyes of the computers, and that’s before considering Atlanta’s reportedly active pursuits of starting pitching. The Phillies are good, and the Phillies’ pitching is great, but the bats are due to come back to earth, while Atlanta’s are due to heat up. It’s a race. Categories:
- World Series contenders: Philadelphia, Atlanta
NL West
| Team | W–L | Exp. W–L | Pre. Exp. W–L |
| Los Angeles | 33–19 | 97.0–65.0 | 93.7–68.3 |
This one is not a race. Public expectations were higher than mathematic expectations for the Dodgers entering the year, but the Dodgers have outperformed the mathematic ones while their division rivals have slightly underperformed. Until further notice, the NL West belongs to Los Angeles, and the only question is whether they’ll earn the 1-seed or 2-seed in the National League.
- World Series contenders: Los Angeles
NL Central
| Team | W–L | Exp. W–L | Pre. Exp. W–L |
| Milwaukee | 28–21 | 85.0–77.0 | 80.3–81.7 |
| Chicago | 27–24 | 84.0–78.0 | 82.3–79.7 |
| St. Louis | 23–26 | 80.2–81.8 | 83.3–78.7 |
In the Central, it’s looking more binary than trinary, but that can change quickly. The Brewers have overperformed so far. The Cardinals have underperformed. The Cubs have leaned towards overperformance. Of the three, the Brewers looked most liable preseason to end up sellers, although the Cardinals’ veteran-focused offseason attracted a lot of criticism. The Brewers have changed their category. The Cardinals are showing signs of pulling out of the spin, but they’ve got work to do.
- Pennant hopefuls: Milwaukee, Chicago
- Playoff hopefuls: St. Louis
NL Wild Card
| Team | W–L | Playoff % | Pre. Playoff % |
| Milwaukee | 28–21 | 62.8% | 30.0% |
| Chicago | 27–24 | 53.8% | 41.3% |
| San Diego | 27–26 | 57.8% | 41.6% |
| San Francisco | 25–26 | 35.0% | 43.4% |
| Arizona | 24–26 | 38.2% | 51.2% |
| St. Louis | 23–26 | 25.3% | 48.2% |
| Pittsburgh | 23–28 | 8.3% | 16.2% |
| Washington | 21–27 | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| New York | 21–28 | 14.6% | 29.9% |
| Cincinnati | 20–30 | 6.3% | 23.1% |
We’ve cut the Marlins and Rockies off here, and we would have done the same with the Nationals were they not leading the Mets and Reds, both of whom retain a real playoff chance.
The Padres have narrowly separated themselves from the Giants and Diamondbacks, playing the best of the three while adding Luis Arraez and garnering strong starts from Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish. The Giants have lost a lot of production, both realized and expected, to injury. The Diamondbacks are struggling a little, and that’s enough to hold them back, but the lone massive surprise there is Corbin Carroll’s crash landing after an elite 2023.
It’s interesting that the Pirates’ chances have worsened, given Paul Skenes is such a sensation right now, but five games under .500 is a lot even in this NL. The Mets and Reds are similarly probably on their way to sales, but they retain enough of a shot.
Three of these teams will make the playoffs. Most likely, whichever of the Cubs and Brewers doesn’t win the Central will get passed up, but they’re still both likelier than anyone behind the Padres.
Full NL categories:
- World Series contenders: Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Atlanta
- Pennant hopefuls: Milwaukee, Chicago, San Diego
- Playoff hopefuls: San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis
- Sale-oriented: Pittsburgh, New York, Cincinnati
- Rebuilding: Washington, Miami, Colorado
AL East
| Team | W–L | Exp. W–L | Pre. Exp. W–L |
| New York | 35–17 | 95.3–66.7 | 87.4–74.6 |
| Baltimore | 30–18 | 90.1–71.9 | 84.2–77.8 |
You guys aren’t going to believe this, but the Orioles are outperforming their on-paper expectations. Even with Jackson Holliday’s debut a fizzle rather than a sizzle, Baltimore’s kept the hot streak going, now approaching 24 months of boasting some of the best vibes in the game. Unfortunately for the O’s, the Yankees are playing like the Phillies, with both Juan Soto and Aaron Judge early MVP candidates (more on those races below).
Are the Orioles a World Series contender? At the moment, they’re trailing by three games in their division and they’re the worse team of the pair on paper. Right now, the answer is no. They’re the closest among those not in that tier, though, and that goes for the whole of Major League Baseball, not just the American League or the AL East.
- World Series contenders: New York
- Pennant hopefuls: Baltimore
AL Central
| Team | W–L | Exp. W–L | Pre. Exp. W–L |
| Cleveland | 33–17 | 86.6–75.4 | 80.3–81.7 |
| Kansas City | 32–19 | 86.1–75.9 | 76.0–86.0 |
| Minnesota | 26–23 | 85.7–76.3 | 85.1–76.9 |
The Central was supposed to be the Twins’ to lose, and despite all their streakiness, they’re right on pace for what was supposed to be necessary. Unfortunately for Minnesota, the Guardians and Royals are recreating the termite sketch from I Think You Should Leave, and the Twins have thus far not been part of the Turbo Team. Can Cleveland and KC keep it up? Not at these paces, but they’ve done enough to be favored over the Twins right now, which is a heck of a thing to pull off over less than two months of baseball. The wildest thing about the Guardians is that they’ve done this with Shane Bieber undergoing Tommy John surgery and Steven Kwan missing a third of games so far on the IL. The wildest thing about the Royals is everything, but let’s shout out Seth Lugo here. He’s always been quietly solid, but in his second full year as a starter since his sophomore season, he’s the AL ERA leader.
- Pennant hopefuls: Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota
AL West
| Team | W–L | Exp. W–L | Pre. Exp. W–L |
| Seattle | 27–24 | 85.2–76.8 | 85.3–76.7 |
| Texas | 24–27 | 79.3–82.7 | 81.8–80.2 |
| Houston | 22–28 | 83.7–78.3 | 90.5–71.5 |
It was a foregone conclusion entering the season that the AL’s byes would go to the champions of the East and West unless the Twins really did something crazy. Instead, it’s a coin flip right now whether the Central or West winner gets that 2-seed. What’s happened? The Astros have stunk, with even a strong recent run leaving them six games under .500 going into this weekend. It hasn’t really been injuries for Houston, and Kyle Tucker is looking like a strong AL MVP candidate. But Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman have underperformed, Hunter Brown has really struggled, and Justin Verlander is a 41-year-old man. Meanwhile, the computers were right about the Rangers, who haven’t been helped by Nathan Eovaldi’s injury, Wyatt Langford’s tough start, and Max Scherzer’s setbacks. The result is that the Mariners are doing the same thing as the Twins, but with the opposite results. The Astros should get back in this. The Rangers’ firepower is too questionable to justify belief.
- Pennant hopefuls: Seattle, Houston
- Playoff hopefuls: Texas
AL Wild Card
| Team | W–L | Playoff % | Pre. Playoff % |
| Cleveland | 33–17 | 66.1% | 33.4% |
| Kansas City | 32–19 | 62.4% | 13.2% |
| Baltimore | 30–18 | 84.8% | 52.8% |
| Minnesota | 26–23 | 59.3% | 65.3% |
| Seattle | 27–24 | 62.6% | 60.1% |
| Boston | 26–24 | 22.7% | 22.9% |
| Tampa Bay | 25–26 | 34.0% | 59.6% |
| Texas | 24–27 | 19.6% | 37.9% |
| Toronto | 23–26 | 24.8% | 49.0% |
| Detroit | 23–27 | 12.6% | 28.1% |
| Houston | 22–28 | 50.6% | 85.9% |
Anaheim has fallen off a cliff, with Mike Trout’s injury not helping matters. Oakland hung around for a while but recently went through a brutal run. The White Sox remain the White Sox. The Rays aren’t clicking the way they usually do, but they’re still in the mix, as are the Blue Jays, whose struggles have been a bigger story due to their persistency over the years of this ballyhooed core. The Red Sox have met mathematic expectations and slightly outperformed the public hunch, but they’re merely fine and aren’t presently a serious playoff contender. There are cases for optimism for all of these teams but the Tigers, but the Guardians and Royals have combined to most likely eliminate one playoff spot, and possibly two. With the Orioles likely bound to take one themselves and one going to the AL West champion, that leaves only one or two more slots to be filled by the Guardians/Royals, Twins, Mariners/Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rangers.
Full AL categories:
- World Series contenders: New York
- Pennant hopefuls: Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston
- Playoff hopefuls: Boston, Tampa Bay, Texas, Toronto
- Sale-oriented: Detroit
- Rebuilding: Oakland, Anaheim, Chicago
The Awards
That’s the situation with the standings. As for the MVP and Cy Young races…
We’re using an average of bWAR and fWAR for the current WAR number. We’re using FanGraphs’s Depth Chart projection for the rest of the season, and we’re including anyone who’s in the top ten in either current WAR or projected rest-of-season WAR, meaning these are not top-X lists. They’re each a combination of two top-ten lists.
AL MVP
| Player | Current WAR | Proj. ROS WAR | Total |
| Aaron Judge | 3.00 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 3.25 | 4.70 | 7.95 |
| Kyle Tucker | 3.45 | 4.30 | 7.75 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3.35 | 4.10 | 7.45 |
| Juan Soto | 2.70 | 4.70 | 7.40 |
| Macus Semien | 2.30 | 3.40 | 5.70 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.55 |
| José Ramírez | 1.30 | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| Anthony Volpe | 2.30 | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| Daulton Varsho | 2.20 | 2.50 | 4.70 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.85 | 3.70 | 4.55 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 0.75 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
| Jarren Duran | 2.55 | 1.70 | 4.25 |
| Tanner Houck | 2.20 | 1.80 | 4.00 |
The AL MVP race is, so far, five men wide. The five best players in the league so far are expected to be the five best the rest of the way as well. I believe Aaron Judge has the most significant injury history of the five, for whatever that’s worth. Also, when the WAR race is within a certain amount, MVP voting gets very subjective. It’s not merely about finishing on top.
NL MVP
| Player | Current WAR | Proj. ROS WAR | Total |
| Mookie Betts | 3.25 | 4.70 | 7.95 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 3.20 | 3.70 | 6.90 |
| William Contreras | 2.45 | 3.50 | 5.95 |
| Ketel Marte | 2.55 | 3.30 | 5.85 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0.60 | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| Bryce Harper | 2.00 | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.10 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Will Smith | 1.65 | 3.40 | 5.05 |
| Shōta Imanaga | 2.45 | 2.30 | 4.75 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.05 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1.25 | 3.40 | 4.65 |
| Austin Riley | 1.00 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Ranger Suárez | 2.45 | 1.90 | 4.35 |
| Alec Bohm | 2.15 | 2.20 | 4.35 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Jurickson Profar | 2.10 | 1.40 | 3.50 |
At the moment, it really looks like Betts vs. Ohtani for this one, with Ronald Acuña Jr. off to a slower start. I don’t know if there should be concerns about vote-splitting between teammates or not, but if there are for Betts and Ohtani, there should be for Judge and Soto as well.
AL Cy Young
| Player | Current WAR | Proj. ROS WAR | Total |
| Tarik Skubal | 2.10 | 2.80 | 4.90 |
| Tanner Houck | 2.20 | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| Corbin Burnes | 1.35 | 2.60 | 3.95 |
| Kutter Crawford | 2.10 | 1.70 | 3.80 |
| Cole Ragans | 1.70 | 1.90 | 3.60 |
| Garrett Crochet | 1.60 | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| Joe Ryan | 1.20 | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| Seth Lugo | 2.00 | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| Luis Castillo | 1.00 | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| Jon Gray | 1.75 | 1.50 | 3.25 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 1.60 | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| Pablo López | 0.60 | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| George Kirby | 0.75 | 2.30 | 3.05 |
| Logan Gilbert | 1.05 | 1.90 | 2.95 |
| Kevin Gausman | 0.30 | 2.60 | 2.90 |
| Tyler Anderson | 1.80 | 0.90 | 2.70 |
| Luis Gil | 1.75 | 0.90 | 2.65 |
| Framber Valdez | 0.25 | 2.00 | 2.25 |
This list is big, which is mostly a testament to how wide-open the race is behind Skubal. Great start to the season for Tanner Houck, but there’s a long way to go. Skubal’s the favorite, but not by any stretch over the field.
NL Cy Young
| Player | Current WAR | Proj. ROS WAR | Total |
| Shōta Imanaga | 2.45 | 2.30 | 4.75 |
| Zack Wheeler | 1.65 | 3.10 | 4.75 |
| Chris Sale | 1.95 | 2.50 | 4.45 |
| Ranger Suárez | 2.45 | 1.90 | 4.35 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1.75 | 2.40 | 4.15 |
| Logan Webb | 1.45 | 2.50 | 3.95 |
| Aaron Nola | 1.05 | 2.70 | 3.75 |
| Hunter Greene | 1.85 | 1.80 | 3.65 |
| Dylan Cease | 1.40 | 2.10 | 3.50 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1.10 | 2.30 | 3.40 |
| Yu Darvish | 1.55 | 1.70 | 3.25 |
| Max Fried | 0.95 | 2.20 | 3.15 |
| Freddy Peralta | 1.10 | 2.00 | 3.10 |
| Reynaldo López | 1.55 | 1.20 | 2.75 |
| Javier Assad | 1.65 | 0.60 | 2.25 |
Imanaga! Well that’s fun. Similarly to the AL, I’m not sure where to draw the line on contenders here. Cease and Yamamoto are very believable candidates, with reactions positive to their performances so far. We should mention that Cy Young voting tracks less closely to WAR than MVP voting, and that voters haven’t come around very much on looking at FIP rather than ERA.
The Rest
House v. NCAA:
- It was a little funny, immediately after last night’s post, to see so many statements released by power conferences, the NCAA, and the plaintiffs’ lawyers taking a victory lap. It was also funny to see so many media outlets satiate their sources, rushing around declaring the agreement “historic” only to backtrack this morning and remind the public that obstacles remain. To be fair, it’s historic. Colleges agreed to directly pay athletes. That’s history. But what both sides of this lawsuit are trying to do is normalize their shared preferred outcome before the process is complete. Both sides want to start operating under the expectation their settlement will be approved before the settlement is actually approved by the judge. Why? To discourage other lawsuits. To discourage efforts for better deals for college athletes and mid-majors. Possibly even to make it harder for the judge to reject the settlement, under the grounds that rejection would disrupt the industry, harming both schools and their athletes in the short term. It’s a pressure campaign.
- A capped revenue sharing system still runs afoul of moral rules, and possibly legal ones as well. In a free market, athletes could potentially make more money than the settlement allows them to make. Why are the plaintiffs’ lawyers ok with this? Because if it’s their settlement that becomes the law of the land, they get the money and the prestige. Maybe Steve Berman and Jeffrey Kessler are in this out of a sincere desire to make a wrong situation right. They sure stand to gain a lot, though, if it’s their lawsuit which wins. And with the NCAA losing so many court cases these last few years, it’s not like the pair picked a particularly challenging case. I don’t know what cut they’ll take of the settlement. I don’t know their history. But their active attempt to stymie Fontenot v. NCAA doesn’t look great. It looks like they want other lawsuits tamped down so that they can be the ones to harvest this low-hanging legal fruit.
The NBA:
- Really bummed for Tyrese Haliburton, but hopefully he can find a way to go for the games back in Indianapolis.
- Jaylen Brown is not as good as Jayson Tatum. I think the average fan likes him more, though, and I think that’s heightened by the juxtaposition. Not a Duke guy, doesn’t play like a Duke guy, doesn’t carry himself like a Duke guy, looks cooler than a Duke guy. Brown taking over more like he did last night could do a lot for public opinion of the Celtics.
- Keep an eye on Oshae Brissett in Game 3. It’s hard to tell what’s what in a sample that small, but his showing last night might have had some significance.
- The Timberwolves and Nuggets taught us well that 2–0 leads gained on the road are not the final say. But, if the Mavericks win tonight, it’s a tough
The NHL:
- It finally hit me last night how exciting an Oilers/Rangers Stanley Cup Finals would be. Especially these Oilers, with Connor McDavid. Terrible missed opportunity last night for the Stars to grab a series lead.
NASCAR, F1, IndyCar:
- The Indy 500’s weather situation is still rough, but it’s improved enough to where there’s a chance the storms come in late enough for the race to run as planned. Ryan McGee has a great little preview over at ESPN for those unfamiliar with IndyCar and wanting to prime themselves.
- The Coke 600 Sunday night doesn’t have the same weather concerns, which is nice for one of NASCAR’s premier events after a rained out Daytona 500 this February. But the weather in Indianapolis could impact it, as could weather between Indy and Charlotte. The NASCAR race’s big calling card this year is Kyle Larson attempting to do the double and run both races, a total of 1,100 miles. If Larson can’t make it to Charlotte, has to leave Indy early, or encounters trouble on his flights between the speedways, it’s going to be a disappointment for an opportunity not guaranteed to exist again next year.
- Earlier Sunday morning, F1 will run its Monaco Grand Prix, the sport’s biggest race. Given how big F1 cars have gotten and how narrow the streets of Monaco remain, though, the real action should come tomorrow in qualifying.
Chicago:
- Big series for the Cubs this weekend in St. Louis, and a big one beginning Monday In Milwaukee. The Cardinals series might be bigger, though? At this point, we know the Brewers are in the race. They’re leading the race. There is a lot of time left for that race to play out. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are on that bubble, and the Cardinals being on that bubble makes this a good opportunity for the Cubs to push them down a little further, a little closer to eventually being sellers. Imanaga against Mikolas tonight. Taillon against TBD tomorrow. TBD against Sonny Gray on Sunday.
- The Sky upset the Liberty last night in New York, moving to 2–1 on the year. Marina Mabrey had another good night. They’ve got their home opener tomorrow night against the WNBA’s last undefeated team, the Connecticut Sun.
- Connor Bedard and Canada are up against Philipp Kurashev and Switzerland in tomorrow’s hockey worlds semifinals. Petr Mrazek and the Czech Republic face Sweden. Championship and third place game are on Sunday.
- Elsewhere with the Blackhawks, today they traded a first-round pick and two second-round picks for a first-round pick and one second-round pick, doing the deal with the Islanders. The Blackhawks had a lot of early picks. This lessens the quantity and improves the quality, with the second first-rounder moving up from 20th to 18th. They’ll still select second overall.
- And, with the Bulls, Lonzo Ball said today that he plans to be back for opening night. Would be something!
The Packers:
- Per Matt Schneidman, Rich Bisaccia mentioned the Packers could potentially add a kicker from the spring leagues, meaning the UFL. (And maybe the CFL?) Brandon Aubrey took a similar route to the Cowboys and was one of the best kickers in the league last year, so it’s an encouraging thought. The kicker position does not seem like a particularly efficient market.
Joe’s Notes will be off on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. A planned absence! Not an accidental one like usual!
