FanGraphs, yesterday, made it official: Their 2022 Report on various MLB farm systems is complete. With this, their farm system rankings are live for the remainder of the year, and the Cubs currently come in 6th.
What’s the significance of this?
FanGraphs is the only prospect-grading organization I know of which calculates the value of farm systems numerically, and in units (USD, derived from the historic WAR of comparably-graded prospects) which translate directly to their Major League peers. The rankings are quantifiable, and while FanGraphs’s ratings of individual prospects may differ from those of Baseball America, Keith Law, MLB Pipeline, etc., they aren’t so far off as to give any cause to doubt the ratings as a whole. In fact, one of the things I personally prefer about FanGraphs’s approach is that it captures the value of having a broad stock of medium prospects—not top 100 guys, but guys capable of getting there, or capable of doing what Christopher Morel and Justin Steele have done and simply outperforming expectations. There’s a risk in putting too much weight in the top 100. This firmly counteracts that risk.
This broad stock of medium prospects is what gives the Cubs that sixth-place ranking. Seven of the eight teams immediately behind them have a single prospect better-rated than the Cubs’ best, but only two of the 24 anywhere behind them can match the Cubs’ quantity of 35+ (and better) Future Value guys, which is to say, guys good enough to make FanGraphs’s 1,211-prospect list out of the six thousand minor leaguers out there, or however many exactly there are.
The Cubs do have some top-100 prospects, per the list. Outfielders Brennen Davis (28th), Pete Crow-Armstrong (38th), Kevin Alcántara (72nd), and Owen Caissie (91st) join infielder James Triantos (93rd) in giving Chicago’s National League franchise one and a half times their rightful share of the top crop.
There’s a catch, of course, and it’s the various ETA’s of the Cubs’ best minor leaguers. Davis and Alcántara project to make the pro’s in 2024. Crow-Armstrong and Caissie are projected for 2025. Triantos is projected for 2026. The thing Cubs fans want most right now is a competitive team in 2023. The losing has gotten old. The farm system is constructed, however, in a way where the next obvious year to commit to contention doesn’t come until 2025, and while the Cubs have made a few moves designed at giving the team a shot (I’ll spare you the “this team isn’t that bad” explanation, but the Stroman signing was a clear bridge move aimed at keeping the club close enough to .500 to be palatable across this rebuilding stretch), they don’t appear keen on making enough to get to 90 wins in the next two full seasons. The approach is going to have to change this offseason for the Cubs to be respectably competitive in 2023, and it may require some restraint these coming weeks regarding Ian Happ’s potential suitors. There’s also still the matter of pitching. The Cubs’ pitching drafting and development has improved, but it’s not at the point yet where a pitcher is one of the team’s top prospects (Caleb Kilian is ranked 7th in the system by FanGraphs, though I know others have or have had him higher). It’s a lot to ask Steele and Keegan Thompson to be the rocks of the rotation these next few years behind Stroman. It’s a lot to ask Stroman to lead a strong rotation. Those are optimistic gestures.
Still, having a good farm system is good, and the Cubs’ will only get better over the next few weeks. The draft will bolster it as the Cubs take advantage of a high selection spot and a willingness to maximally use their bonus pool. The trade deadline will bolster it, as Willson Contreras and David Robertson and others bring in more of those medium prospects, and perhaps even a good one (most likely, we get a lot of mediums and then one or two—like Crow-Armstrong and Alcántara last year—find their way quickly into the top 100). As the Rays continue to graduate prospects, they’ll drop behind the Cubs, and with the Red Sox likely buyers and the Orioles and Guardians at least presumably not selling aggressively, I’d call it likely to reach mid-August with the fourth-best system in the business, if not the second-best (trailing only that of the Pirates). The waiting sucks, and there are means to make it suck less (short-term contracts for free agents), and there’s definitely pressure on the Cubs to use those means (the overwhelming consensus is that the Cubs are going to sign a big-name shortstop this offseason, and I’d imagine the rotation will get a makeover similar to this past winter’s), and we don’t know how effective their usage of those means will be (if the Cubs have the 6th-worst pitching staff in the league again next year, there’s not much the offense can do to make up for it, especially when the offense has lost Contreras, possibly Happ, and some of this year’s overachievers).
But again, having a good farm system is good. Even if having a good Major League team is better.
Other Farm System Notes
In FanGraphs’s 2021 report, Tampa Bay’s farm system was more than double the value of second-place Detroit’s, with Wander Franco accounting for only half that gap. Soon, per FanGraphs, the Rays will drop to seventh. Still very, very good, especially being at that point in the farm system cycle where the top prospects have all graduated.
The White Sox’ farm system is bad. Terrible, in fact. The same is true of the Angels, in a similar place organizationally of fielding a bad Major League team and having no clear path to improving it imminently.
The Mariners and Phillies do not have good farm systems, and they’re on the brink of contention but they aren’t in the heart of contention, which is a tough trade deadline position. Expect some trading-from-a-strength-to-fill-a-weakness, like when Seattle dealt Kendall Graveman for Abraham Toro last year. Expect this more from Jerry Dipoto than Dave Dombrowski, who seems likelier to just sell whatever parts they have and figure out the rest later. The Phillies can pay free agents. Development’s more necessary for the Mariners.
The Twins and Brewers do not have good farm systems, and they don’t have great teams, but in the lead of their respective divisions, they each have an opportunity to seize. I’m curious which will try to thread the needle and which will try to capture the moment, and whether both might chose the same course. Threading the needle’s a dangerous proposition, as those leads are substantial but tenuous. The worst thing either can do is take it easy and then get clipped in September by St. Louis or Cleveland.
Atlanta has a terrible farm system, having graduated so much of it in recent years. I suspect this is why last season’s deals were mostly reclamation projects. It worked last year. It might not need to work this year, given how good the MLB club is. Still, not an easy position. Development is so important to perennial contenders. The Dodgers have the 11th-best farm system in baseball, and it’s built a lot like the Cubs’, with a wide range of medium prospects.
The Blue Jays’ farm system isn’t terrible, but it’s bad, and they’ve got a lot of work to do to make this season work. Thankfully, relief pitchers are often cheap. Unthankfully, starting pitchers are often expensive.
Charlie Montoyo: Out
Speaking of making this season’s Blue Jays work, the front office in Toronto just put Charlie Montoyo out of work, firing the manager this morning as they wrestle with teams far less talented in the American League playoff chase.
The narrative seems to be similar to those which accompanied Joe Girardi and Joe Maddon’s firings a couple months back: It’s a distraction, it’s an attempt to liven things up, the problem isn’t the manager it’s the roster, etc. That narrative made sense applied to Girardi and Maddon. Applied to Montoyo, that narrative is wrong.
I don’t know if Charlie Montoyo is the issue in Toronto, but that roster is great. That roster is hardly worse than the Yankees’ roster. That roster should be comfortably in playoff position right now, and it should not be fifteen games back in the division race.
Yes, injuries have hurt, and yes, the bullpen hasn’t pitched well, but the injuries haven’t been outrageous compared to those other teams have faced, and the bullpen isn’t amazing on paper, but it’s much better than it’s pitched. What’s happening with the Blue Jays isn’t a flawed approach failing to work. It’s a team underperforming its talent for the second straight year. In that light, firing the manager makes sense. Managers are famously overvalued, but they aren’t meaningless, and the differences they make should, theoretically, be ones of over/underperformance by individual players and the sum of those individual players’ parts.
Other baseball news:
- The Blue Jays got Danny Jansen back from the IL, resulting in Gabriel Moreno’s demotion back to AAA. Health is always better than the alternative.
- The Phillies placed four players on the Restricted List as they crossed the Canadian border: J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, Kyle Gibson, and Aaron Nola. Two thoughts on this: First, I don’t know Gibson and Nola’s vaccination status (I assume they’re unvaccinated), but could a team theoretically stash starting pitchers who are resting and get extra bullpen guys for a Toronto series? Second, how much of a competitive advantage has Canada’s vaccine law been for the Blue Jays? Would they be worse right now than they are?
On the field last night:
- The Rays won a weird one over the Red Sox in St. Petersburg, spoiling Chris Sale’s (impressive) return when they scored three in the sixth off of Ryan Brasier and Matt Strahm. The latter two runs came in when Taylor Walls lined a ball off of Matt Strahm’s wrist, Strahm picked the ball up but threw it past first baseman Franchy Cordero, and Cordero tracked the ball down but threw it past home plate. Chaos, two runs, an eventual loss, and Strahm had to go to the hospital with Trevor Story (who’d been hit on the hand an inning prior by a pitch he swung at) for x-rays. Both players’ x-rays were negative.
- The Reds won a weird one over the Yankees in the Bronx, scoring four in the top of the ninth as Clay Holmes imploded and Wandy Peralta couldn’t quite clean up the mess. Holmes’s Win Probability Added among pitchers dropped to 18th in the Majors after he entered the day in sixth place.
- The Guardians and White Sox split their doubleheader. Shane Bieber went the distance in the opener. His FIP’s down to 2.73.
- The A’s and Rangers played a busy one, with the A’s escaping trouble in the eleventh before putting up an eight-spot in the twelfth emphasized by Chad Pinder’s grand slam.
- The Dodgers nearly erased a five-run deficit in St. Louis, but Packy Naughton wiggled out of a bases-loaded, no-out jam of Junior Fernández’s creation. Scoreless two-thirds of an inning for Fernández in the box score.
- The Brewers beat the Twins after what I believe were at least a couple rain delays in Minneapolis. The Brewers’ lead stays at two games over the Cardinals. The Twins are now just three and a half ahead of the Guardians.
- Atlanta won against the Mets, home runs by Matt Olson and Adam Duvall erasing a 1-0 deficit in the biggest game of the evening.
- The Astros let the Angels back into things in Anaheim before pushing back ahead in the top of the ninth to escape with the victory. They trail the Yankees by three and a half games in the race for the top seed in the East. Mike Trout left the game with back spasms.
- The Giants won big and the Padres lost after more than one facepalm-inducing play. Separated by four and a half games, they sandwich the Cardinals and Phillies from 5th place to 8th place in the NL.
- The Orioles beat the Cubs, 4-2, to make it an eight-game winning streak and to push their record up to an even .500 mark. Jordan Lyles bounced back from a rocky first two innings to go seven for the Birds.
- The Mariners and Nationals were rained out. They play a doubleheader today.
Yormark Speaks
Incoming Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark spoke today at and around media day, and the two things of note are these:
First, yes, the Big 12 is open to expanding. Fielding calls, from the sounds of it. The question I have about urgency is whether they feel a need to jump on Pac-12 teams who are interested before the ACC can grab them. If there’s a clear disparity between which league a school should prefer (in either direction), then the urgency is gone. If it’s up in the air, I’d imagine time is more of the essence.
Second, and this is more legitimate news, Yormark sounds open to Texas and Oklahoma leaving before 2025. Only, of course, if it makes sense for the Big 12, but the fact he’d even pay lip service to a scenario where this could make sense for the Big 12 is interesting. For Iowa State’s purposes, this could be helpful in making a College Football Playoff push before the format changes, and maybe that’s the general idea. Yes, it makes more short-term money to play with the Longhorns and Sooners, but scenarios in which those are the “Big 12” representative on the national stage could really hurt the Big 12’s image at a time when it’s not exactly in a world of safety. Giving a better shot to Iowa State or, more likely and less likely depending on the school, the other Big 12 schools, could really pay off.
It could also just be that Yormark wants to keep a good relationship with Texas and Oklahoma to the extent that’s possible, which seems smart. It’s generally better to be liked than disliked when alliances are being formed and broken, even if money’s still the crux of such things.
Harry to the Bears
The Bears picked up wide receiver K’Neal Harry from the Patriots in exchange for a seventh-round draft pick in 2024. Upside for the Bears, cap space for the Patriots, seems like a win-win on the surface but the Bears/Patriots element does make one wonder if this spells doom for Chicago.
In other NFL news, Rob Gronkowski has said he won’t unretire again, which provokes the question of what retirement means.
Malkin to…the Penguins
Well, this is funny. A day after much was made of Evgeni Malkin testing the free agency waters, he’s back on the Penguins. Four-year extension.
Other moves:
- Darcy Kuemper has signed with the Capitals. Five years.
- The Oilers have brought Jack Campbell in to patch up their much-maligned, 40-year-old-Mike-Smith-led goaltending operation. Five-year deal for Campbell. Meanwhile, Edmonton also extended Evander Kane. Four more years, and four more years to Brett Kulak as well.
- The Senators picked up Cam Talbot in a trade for the Wild, sending Filip Gustavsson over to Minnesota. The Talbot situation had gotten weird in St. Paul, with the goalie expressing displeasure with the team’s decision to bring back Marc-Andre Fleury and the team expressing displeasure with the goalie’s displeasure. The winner? The Sens, it seems. Talbot will pair with Anton Forsberg, whom the Senators gave an in-season extension this past year. The Senators have also brought in veteran forward Claude Giroux.
- The Rangers signed Vincent Trocheck to a seven-year deal.
- The Red Wings signed Andrew Copp to a five-year deal, also bringing in Ben Chiarot for four years and David Perron for two.
- The Stars signed Mason Marchment to a four-year deal.
- The Penguins brought in defenseman Jan Rutta on a three-year contract.
- The Avalanche and Artturi Lehkonen agreed to a four-year extension. Colorado also signed Josh Manson to a four-year contract.
- The Blackhawks signed Andreas Athanasiou and Max Domi to one-year contracts.
- The Blues extended Robert Thomas for eight years and brought in Nick Leddy for four.
- The Canucks signed Ilya Mikheyev for four years.
- The Ducks signed Frank Vatrano for three years.
- Erik Gudbranson got four years from the Blue Jackets.
- The Lightning extended Mikhail Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli, and Erik Cernak for eight years apiece.
- The Leafs signed Ilya Samsonov to back up Matt Murray for a season.
- The Kraken signed Andre Burakovsky for five years and Justin Schultz for two.
- The Hurricanes picked up Brent Burns from the Sharks.
I’m sure we missed some signings of comparable significance to ones we listed here, so apologies for the inconsistency there. Who’s left available? Of the big ones, Johnny Gaudreau’s the biggest. The former Flames forward has said he won’t be back in Calgary. Unless Sidney Crosby gets involved, of course.
**
Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
- 12:20 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Atlanta, Bassitt vs. Morton (MLB TV)
- 1:10 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Minnesota, Ashby vs. Ryan (MLB TV)
- 3:45 PM EDT: Arizona @ San Francisco, Gallen vs. Brebbia (MLB TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Toronto, Wheeler vs. Stripling (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Boston @ Tampa Bay, Winckowski vs. McClanahan (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Cleveland, Giolito vs. Civale (MLB TV)
- 7:45 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ St. Louis, Gonsolin vs. Wainwright (MLB TV)
- 8:05 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Cubs, Watkins vs. Steele (MLB TV)
- 9:38 PM EDT: Houston @ Anaheim, Javier vs. Ohtani (MLB TV)
