Let’s write some notes.
Those Playoff Rankings
Ohio State did jump Alabama this week, which is a good sign for Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and whoever wins the Big 12. Alabama making the field at 11-2 is concerning for those three contenders, so seeing them below a clearly great Ohio State team is at least better than the alternative, for those four teams. I wrote more about the rankings and this week’s games here, and covered all the conference championship tiebreaker scenarios here. It all starts tomorrow night with the Egg Bowl.
That Gonzaga Team
Gonzaga walloped UCLA last night, but it’s worth remembering a few things: First, it’s so early in the season. Second, UCLA and Texas are both outside the top eight in KenPom. Third, the Texas game was at home. Fourth, college basketball’s championship format introduces a lot of randomness to the equation.
In other words, Gonzaga is far from inevitable. But they do seem to have a bigger advantage on the field than they did last year.
Other Thanksgiving Tournament Notes
Wisconsin looked great against Houston, but as we noted in yesterday’s bets, Houston might not be that great. Still a nice win for them, and a nice win for Saint Mary’s later in the day. That’ll be a fun one this afternoon in Las Vegas’s imitation of Maui.
In the land of nostalgia, Illinois beat Bruce Weber yesterday, and Ohio State plays Florida tonight. Childhood, man. Meanwhile, the Battle 4 Atlantis has already tipped off, and it’s getting right to the good stuff, with Michigan State and Loyola in a tight one at the half. Auburn plays UConn next. Great daytime slate.
MLB Free Agency Ticks On
The biggest news isn’t actually free agency news, but the Rays signing Wander Franco to an eleven-year, $182M extension. It’s a massive contract for a guy who hasn’t even played a full major league season, but it’s one of those things that makes sense for both sides. Franco gets to skip arbitration, and even waiting for arbitration, and is locked into the option of a lifetime of potential wealth. The Rays get a guy at what will probably be a bargain.
Deals like this are so specific that it’s hard to take them as any sort of referendum on what the market’s going to look like under the new CBA. So we won’t comment on that piece of it.
The White Sox paid $24M for three years of Kendall Graveman yesterday, which seems…bold. High leverage though relievers may be, that’s a lot of money for a relief pitcher who’s only been a full-time reliever for a year. Maybe it’ll be a steal, but it’s a risk.
The Cardinals paid $44M for four years of Steven Matz, which is probably really a steal. After a terrible 2020 in Queens, he blossomed in Toronto, nearly getting back to his 2016 performance and sustaining it over 150 innings. The four years seems to be the thing that got Matz to take the somewhat low AAV. Security, guys. It’s important.
An MLB Lockout Ticks Closer
The lockout is set to begin at midnight next Wednesday night, and in preparation, MLB and the MLBPA have reportedly moved the tender deadline up to Tuesday night, giving teams and players a chance to finalize that piece of things before the dead period starts. Free agent deals can’t be signed between CBA’s, so we might get a flurry of activity early next week.
No Good News for the Cubs
The Cubs missed out on Matz, and while we assume they had the chance to match the Cardinals’ offer, we don’t actually know that. Regardless, the hunt for starting pitching winds on. Meanwhile, Miguel Amaya, recently one of the Cubs’ top prospects, will underdo Tommy John surgery. He’s a catcher, and he might be able to hit late next year, but it’s unlikely he’ll be behind the plate again until 2023. By that time, he might be getting close to running out of minor league options.
Big City Cyclones
Iowa State’s men’s basketball team gets a big opportunity this week, playing Xavier and then either Memphis or Virginia Tech in New York in the NIT Season Tip-Off. They’ll be an underdog in each game, and they’ll probably lose each game, but if they can steal one, it’d be a great break in the tough half of their nonconference slate. Currently, KenPom’s projecting them to finish 14-16, and that doesn’t include Friday’s game or the Big 12 Tournament. If you assume the worst with those projections and put them at 14-18, the Cyclones need to up that number by two or three wins to have an NIT chance. Winning one of these two would increase it by one, I’d imagine.
(We’ll talk about the football team on Friday…I hope).
Bets
The bets have had an uncharacteristically bad start to college basketball season, but we’re still hanging around a 2% overall average ROI. We’ve been on a lot of moneylines this year, with totals uncharacteristically fallow. Here are today’s. Heartbreaker in the first.
Viewing Schedule
The game between the Michigan State/Loyola and Auburn/UConn winners is tomorrow at 11 AM Central, so I’d opt for that over the Lions and Bears if such behavior flies in your household. At night, we have the Egg Bowl.
As for today, just college basketball. Battle 4 Atlantis, then Wisconsin/Saint Mary’s in Las Vegas’s imitation of Maui, then Iowa State/Xavier and Memphis/Virginia Tech in Brooklyn (or Ohio State/Florida, if you are not an Iowa State person).
Good two days ahead. I will intend to see you Friday. We’ll see what happens.
