“Friday night, thinking that we just might fly away to someplace they don’t know who we are…”
Texas Tech’s National Championship Hopes
Regular readers are perhaps a bit exasperated with our waffling on our National Championship Possibilities category. The Contenders list—Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky—has held constant for a bit here, but Possibilities, teams of which we can say you know, I can see it, is always in flux. We use KenPom as a guide, and there are basically two ways to read KenPom right now on it.
The first is to include Texas Tech, and Auburn, and Duke, and maybe even Tennessee because if it’s offense holding Tech back, well, Tennessee has the better offense, and then Villanova and UCLA and ok we can draw the line at Purdue because that defense is unacceptably generous.
The second is to include Baylor, Kansas, Houston, and no one behind them.
Our issue with Texas Tech is their inconsistent ability to score. They’ve topped a point per possession in just three of their last six games. The last time a team with an offense with any doubt behind it won it all was 2014, the Shabazz Napier year. That team isn’t exactly a great proxy for this Tech one.
On the other hand, the Red Raiders have a defense better than any other unit in the country, and by some margin. Texas Tech does not let teams score, and it’s shown that repeatedly against great competition in the Big 12. Defense is, mathematically, just as valuable as offense, right? Hopefully you understand our dilemma.
For the time being, we’re going to keep Tech, as Tennessee has been, our line—our team that we won’t include. Even Houston feels iffy, if we’re being honest, but we have to include somebody, and it’s hard to know whether the correct takeaway from the current strata is that it’s Gonzaga’s world or that it’s a three-team world or that this is a year when anyone really does have a shot. We need to get the probabilities back in the model. Speaking of which…
Bracketology Updates Coming Monday (Hopefully)
We’re trying to spend the weekend tweaking our model’s formula, scrubbing conference tiebreakers and tournament formats, and getting the simulator up and running again so we can bring you postseason probabilities and put our best reasonable foot forward in end-of-season bracketology (we’ve always felt good about our mid-season bracketology, but our end-of-season stuff has been admittedly lacking). Hopefully the weekend is enough time. No promises, but a little cause for hope, if this is something you hope on.
This Weekend’s Other Main Action
For those not poring over spreadsheets, the big games this weekend are as follows:
Kansas @ Baylor (8:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN)
The Jayhawks try to virtually clinch the Big 12 regular season title, which they can’t actually lock in but can effectively lock in with a win in Waco. Baylor gets a chance to prove that, injuries and all, they can hang with the almost-best of the best.
Kentucky @ Arkansas (2:00 PM EST Saturday, CBS)
Kentucky’s not dead yet in the SEC race, though they need a lot of help, with Auburn holding the tiebreaker. This is one of those games, more so, where they’re looking to establish themselves as a 1-seed regardless of what happens between them and Auburn, while for Arkansas, it’s an opportunity to remind people who said people thought these guys were months ago.
Auburn @ Tennessee (4:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN)
Auburn would love to get back into the Possibility category (if they were to read this and therefore know it existed), while Tennessee’s still trying to get everyone to take them seriously. Which is fair of them, but is also fair of us, cursed with the memory of that Tennessee/Texas Tech game a few months ago.
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary’s (10:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN)
The Zags try to finish WCC play undefeated, with the tournament a week away. They’re probably already a 1-seed (this is part of why we need to tweak our model), but winning this would help remove most lingering doubt.
SMU @ Houston (12:30 PM EST Sunday, ESPN)
As we said, we have questions about Houston, but the numbers have the Cougars’ back. A challenge of playing in a mid-major league as a great team is that having a bad night at the wrong time can really take a bite out of your reputation, in a way that gets washed out in power conferences. Houston’s allowed more than just a bite, but this is still a chance to solidly beat a decent team and get people feeling uneasy about them once more.
Arizona @ Colorado (8:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN2)
And finally, our last Contender finishes up the mountain trip in Boulder. Should be easy, but never necessarily easy.
Others to watch:
- Purdue @ Michigan State, 12:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN (Purdue in the Big Ten race, Michigan State trying to regain its footing)
- Illinois @ Michigan, 2:00 PM EST Sunday, CBS (Illinois in the Big Ten race, Michigan trying to get off the bubble)
- Texas Tech @ TCU, 6:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN2 (Texas Tech hunting respect, TCU hunting a tournament berth)
- Virginia Tech @ Miami, 3:00 PM EST Saturday, ACCNX (bubble action, both sides)
- USC @ Oregon, 10:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPN2 (Oregon tries to save its season, USC tries to keep its from falling into any doubt)
- Colorado State @ Utah State, 10:30 PM EST Saturday, FS1 (dangerous one for the Rams)
- Wisconsin @ Rutgers, 6:00 PM EST Saturday, BTN (Rutgers trying to reinvigorate its tournament hopes)
- Boise State @ UNLV, 10:00 PM EST Saturday, CBSSN (dangerous one for the Broncos)
- Loyola @ Northern Iowa, 6:00 PM EST Saturday, ESPNU (dangerous one for the Ramblers)
- Creighton @ Providence, 8:30 PM EST Saturday, FS1 (Creighton on the bubble, Providence games often lively)
There are more, of course, but those figure to provide the best combination of entertainment and tournament impact.
Iowa State Goes to Manhattan
Do we call it Farmageddon in basketball? I should know this.
Iowa State gets its rematch with Kansas State, and odd as this is to say, it’s a bit of a no-lose for the Cyclones. K-State’s good enough that there’s no shame in losing to them on the road. That said, a win would move ISU that much closer to a tournament lock and that much closer to perhaps a 6-seed, which could open up some Sweet Sixteen dreams. Kansas State’s best asset remains its perimeter defense, and it protects the ball well. Iowa State could use a good game from George Conditt, or maybe Tristan Enaruna. Someone scoring in the paint to force some of the attention away from Brockington & Hunter & Threes.
Iowa State’s…NFL Draft Prospects?
A little out of left field here, but in an act of putting something off until later, I was on PFF’s Big Board earlier this afternoon, trying to get a read on where ISU guys fall in the NFL draft picture. Here were the six (remember, there are 259 picks):
- 66: Breece Hall
- 161: Eyioma Uwazurike
- 186: Charlie Kolar
- 240: Mike Rose
- 283: Andrew Mevis
- 289: Brock Purdy
It’s a great list for the program. If someone takes Purdy and Rose does indeed get drafted, Iowa State would match Oklahoma’s five-year average of players selected.
Goin’ Racin’
We’re planning on betting on NASCAR again this Sunday, and also probably IndyCar (odds for that are harder to find). So if you enjoyed the Daytona bets, keep an eye out Sunday morning for more money on wheels. Hopefully coming into our pockets.
See you there.
