College Gameday is in Spokane this weekend, there for Saint Mary’s visit to Gonzaga. The Gaels won the game in Moraga earlier this year, but each lost to Loyola Marymount at one point, making this a West Coast Conference regular season title game in addition to an iteration one of college basketball’s most compelling rivalries. If Saint Mary’s wins, they’re the outright champs, and by two full games over the league’s traditional king. If Gonzaga wins, it’s a tie.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t won the WCC at all since 2016, and they haven’t won the league outright since 2012. They’ve been a reliable second fiddle, Gonzaga’s runner-up more often than not and at least an NIT team every season since 2008. They’ve yet to play to the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight in the modern era (they did it in 1959, going through Idaho State to get there), and they’ve only made the Sweet Sixteen once, but as one of many tiny schools trying to make it in Division I basketball, their consistent presence in the sport’s national consciousness is testament enough to what Randy Bennett has done. Gonzaga is a remarkable story. But so is Saint Mary’s.
Gonzaga is the obvious comparison for a school like Saint Mary’s, though Gonzaga is twice Saint Mary’s size. It’s a smaller catholic school located west of the Rockies trying to become a power player in the world of collegiate athletics. The Zags first broke through in 1999, plowing to the Elite Eight and earning Dan Monson the head coaching job at Minnesota. In the ten years that followed, Mark Few took the team to the Sweet Sixteen four times, never missing a tournament along the way. As the victories mounted, the program parlayed them into recruiting strength, which in turn begat more dominance. Gonzaga may have yet to win a national title, but they’ve made the championship game twice in the last five tournaments and their current team, ranked 13th in the nation by KenPom, is the worst one since 2016.
It’s easy to say that Saint Mary’s should follow the Gonzaga track. It’s a lot harder to actually follow it, especially with Gonzaga boxing the Gaels out from automatic bids during down years. The simplest way to describe how Gonzaga got where they are is that they just won a lot, turning talent into better talent and better talent into victories and victories into still better talent from which the cycle could begin anew. That is…what everyone is trying to do. There are aspects of Gonzaga that Saint Mary’s can try to emulate, but the more relevant information coming down that way is simply that this is possible. It is possible for Saint Mary’s to take a team like this one and turn it into a program like the one they play tomorrow night.
The path? Win. Especially in opportunities like tomorrow’s.
Waco, Tuscaloosa, West Lafayette, Boulder
The other big ones this weekend start tomorrow afternoon, with Texas going down to Baylor holding tightly to Kansas atop the Big 12. From here, the Longhorns play Baylor (A), TCU (A), and Kansas (H), while the Jayhawks get West Virginia (H), Texas Tech (H), and Texas (A). The likeliest scenario is that Kansas wins its next two while Texas splits theirs, but the possibility of Kansas locking this up before even getting to Austin is on the table. Texas might not need to beat Baylor. But if it wants to win the league outright, or if it wants to avoid a must-win game in Fort Worth this week, Texas needs to beat Baylor.
Arkansas goes to Alabama, and despite the rage of a lot of Arkansas fans at their team, the Pigs are playing their best basketball of the season. They may be only 5–2 in their last seven, but the wins have been blowouts and the losses have been close, and two of those wins were over Texas A&M and Kentucky, each of whom is a near-tournament lock (the Kentucky win came on the road). Nick Smith had a huge game on Tuesday against Georgia, and while it was only Georgia, this remains terrifying news for the SEC, and especially for an Alabama team that’s earned itself all sorts of distractions.
Purdue hosts Indiana for the rematch in that series, and the Boilermakers aren’t where they were. Our model is an outlier from Bracket Matrix on this, but it pushed UCLA ahead of the Big Ten favorites today, largely because UCLA still has so many opportunities ahead for great wins (Arizona, namely), and Purdue lacks that caliber of chance. UCLA’s ahead of Purdue in KenPom and the AP Poll and NET. UCLA may be ahead of Purdue on Selection Sunday if things keep trending this direction.
And with that, UCLA’s game in Boulder on Sunday afternoon is gigantic. The Bruins have survived the first leg of the high-altitude road trip, but it gets a little harder dealing with high-ceiling Colorado, who isn’t fully off the bubble. We just said a lot of nice things about UCLA’s chances. I’m sure Purdue fans would be distraught if those flew right back in our face.
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
The Cyclones host a desperate Oklahoma team tomorrow, and it’s a get-right game on the surface, but Iowa State could really use a win. Losers of four of five and six of their last eight, the Cyclones are struggling, and a lot of that is schedule but this is where the schedule evens out. There’s no reason or need to panic, but it’s a game where it would feel reassuring to see a nice, solid win. Don’t be the team that lets Oklahoma get back in the mix.
When Is the Meeting?
Aaron Rodgers is going to meet with the Packers now, but it’s unclear when. I guess we already knew this. There was a stir, which made it sound imminent, but it doesn’t seem to have happened today? Guessing we’ll know more on Monday.
F1 Testing, Housekeeping
Just an acknowledgement that F1 testing has been going on, and a housekeeping note to say to expect a little but not a ton on F1, NASCAR, or IndyCar from us for the rest of college basketball season. We’ll pipe in here and there, and we’ll be paying attention and will keep you abreast, but we aren’t going to be covering it in a lot of detail yet. It doesn’t seem like that impacts many of you, but we wanted to give some clarity on it for those curious.
Also: No MLS futures (or other futures right now—the college basketball model comes first) but they remain on the radar. We want to get back into all that. We’re just basketball-first from now through the beginning of April.
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What’s happening this weekend:
College Basketball (the big ones)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Texas @ Baylor (ESPN)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Arkansas @ Alabama (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: Indiana @ Purdue (FOX)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: Saint Mary’s @ Gonzaga (ESPN)
College Basketball (other good ones, plus games of personal and national note – Stu will cover more games in his daily NIT posts)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Oklahoma @ Iowa State (ESPNU)
- Saturday, 2:00 PM EST: Arizona State @ Arizona (CBS)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: West Virginia @ Kansas (ESPN)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EST: Auburn @ Kentucky (CBS)
- Saturday, 6:00 PM EST: Virginia @ North Carolina (ESPN)
- Sunday, 12:00 PM EST: Northwestern @ Maryland (BTN)
- Sunday, 4:00 PM EST: UCLA @ Colorado (CBS)
NBA (playoff-impacting games, which is currently all of them)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: New York @ Washington (League Pass)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EST: Cleveland @ Atlanta (League Pass)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EST: Miami @ Milwaukee (ESPN)
- Friday, 8:00 PM EST: Charlotte @ Minnesota (League Pass)
- Friday, 8:00 PM EST: Brooklyn @ Bulls (League Pass)
- Friday, 10:00 PM EST: Oklahoma City @ Phoenix (ESPN)
- Friday, 10:00 PM EST: Houston @ Golden State (League Pass)
- Friday, 10:30 PM EST: Sacramento @ LA Clippers (League Pass)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EST: Toronto @ Detroit (League Pass)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Miami @ Charlotte (League Pass)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Indiana @ Orlando (League Pass)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EST: New Orleans @ New York (League Pass)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Denver @ Memphis (League Pass)
- Saturday, 8:30 PM EST: Boston @ Philadelphia (ABC)
- Saturday, 9:00 PM EST: San Antonio @ Utah (League Pass)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Phoenix @ Milwaukee (ABC)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EST: Brooklyn @ Atlanta (League Pass)
- Sunday, 3:30 PM EST: Washington @ Bulls (League Pass)
- Sunday, 3:30 PM EST: LA Lakers @ Dallas (ABC)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: Toronto @ Cleveland (League Pass)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EST: Sacramento @ Oklahoma City (League Pass)
- Sunday, 7:30 PM EST: Minnesota @ Golden State (ESPN)
- Sunday, 9:00 PM EST: Houston @ Portland (League Pass)
- Sunday, 10:00 PM EST: LA Clippers @ Denver (ESPN)
NHL (playoff-impacting games, which is currently nearly all of them)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Ottawa @ Carolina (ESPN+)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Buffalo @ Florida (ESPN+)
- Friday, 7:00 PM EST: Minnesota @ Toronto (ESPN+)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EST: Los Angeles @ NY Islanders (ESPN+)
- Friday, 8:00 PM EST: Colorado @ Winnipeg (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 12:30 PM EST: Edmonton @ Columbus (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 1:00 PM EST: NY Rangers @ Washington (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EST: Pittsburgh @ St. Louis (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Anaheim @ Carolina (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Ottawa @ Montreal (NHLN)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Philadelphia @ New Jersey (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EST: Boston @ Vancouver (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 8:00 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Detroit (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: Calgary @ Colorado (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 PM EST: Dallas @ Vegas (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EST: Washington @ Buffalo (NHLN)
- Sunday, 2:00 PM EST: Columbus @ Minnesota (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 3:30 PM EST: NY Islanders @ Winnipeg (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 5:00 PM EST: Los Angeles @ NY Rangers (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 6:00 PM EST: Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh (NHLN)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EST: Nashville @ Arizona (ESPN+)
- Sunday, 7:00 PM EST: Toronto @ Seattle (ESPN+)
NASCAR at California
- Saturday, 12:35 PM EST: Xfinity Series Qualifying (FS1)
- Saturday, 2:50 PM EST: Cup Series Qualifying (FS1)
- Saturday, 5:00 PM EST: Production Alliance 300 – Xfinity Series (FS1)
- Sunday, 3:30 PM EST: Pala Casino 400 – Cup Series (FOX)
League Cup
- Sunday, 11:30 AM EST: Newcastle @ Manchester United (ESPN+)
Premier League
- Friday, 3:00 PM EST: Wolverhampton @ Fulham (USA)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Aston Villa @ Everton (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Southampton @ Leeds (USA)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Arsenal @ Leicester (Peacock)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Nottingham Forest @ West Ham (Peacock)
- Saturday, 12:30 PM EST: Manchester City @ Bournemouth (USA)
- Saturday, 2:45 PM EST: Liverpool @ Crystal Palace (Peacock)
- Sunday, 8:30 AM EST: Chelsea @ Tottenham (USA)
EFL Championship (games of promotion/relegation consequence, which is most of them)
- Saturday, 7:30 AM EST: Sunderland @ Coventry (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Luton @ Birmingham
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Huddersfield @ Burnley
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Cardiff @ Norwich
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Wigan @ Preston
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Blackburn @ Queens Park (ESPN+)
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Blackpool @ Reading
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Watford @ Sheffield United
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Millwall @ Stoke
- Saturday, 10:00 AM EST: Middlesbrough @ West Brom
MLB Spring Training (just the Cubs)
- Saturday, 3:05 PM EST: San Francisco @ Cubs (MLB TV?)
- Sunday, 3:05 PM EST: Cubs @ Los Angeles (MLB TV?)
