It’s here. The CyHawk game is here, and Iowa State’s trying to win its first since Paul Rhoads was the coach and Cole Netten was the kicker and the Cyclones had made the mistake of scheduling North Dakota State instead of a real buy game Week 1 so they went 2-10.
How times have changed.
It’s a little incomprehensible that Iowa State beat Iowa that year yet hasn’t done it at all under Matt Campbell. Part of this is that Iowa’s been better in the years since, even if their trajectory and peak haven’t matched Iowa State’s. Part of this is that Iowa and Iowa State didn’t play in 2020, a season Iowa eventually opened by dropping back-to-back games against Purdue and Northwestern whereas Iowa State won the Fiesta Bowl. Part of it, though, is that time and again these last four meetings, Iowa State hasn’t done the little things. The teams have been comparable, but the play in this game hasn’t been comparable enough. Iowa has Iowa State’s number right now. It’s time, one would hope, to change that.
A few of my favorite people went to Iowa. Only a few, but a few. Most of the year, I don’t think University of Iowa people are inherently bad. But today? Tomorrow? It’s a good outlet for the tribalist instinct. It’s a good time to let out a little hate. They’re stuck-up and they’ve got nothing to back that up. Their self-perception is delusional. They embarrassed themselves last week, failing to touch the endzone against South Dakota State, but they’ll come into tomorrow confident, and they should, and that stinks. It’s time, one would hope, to change things up. It’s time, one would hope, for Matt Campbell to finally beat Iowa.
It’s a fair question whether Iowa State’s defense is better than South Dakota State’s. South Dakota State’s defense is good. They’re a team which could probably make a bowl playing in the Big Ten West, and they’d cause all kinds of headaches for all kinds of Big 12 teams. It was funny to watch Iowa scuffle, but I’m not sure Iowa State actually has a better defense than the Jacks, and with South Dakota State incapable of moving the ball against the Hawkeyes’ own defense, Iowa didn’t exactly have to try much more than all that punting. The nice thing here is that Iowa State might not need to have a better defense than the Jacks. The Jacks held Iowa to three offensive points, and while Brian Ferentz might have kept things up his sleeve, it’s hard to imagine much more up there than a four of spades and a bag of expired deli meat.
On the other side, Hunter Dekkers sure looked great against SEMO, and his upside is definitively higher than Brock Purdy’s (Dekkers’s physical tools are intense, and our few glimpses into his makeup have been impressive). But, Iowa’s got quite a defense.
The hope is that Iowa’s secondary, the least experienced piece of the unit and the one Iowa State appears most ready to exploit, can’t cover Xavier Hutchinson, and that Dekkers shows the composure we hope we see in him, and that Iowa State grabs an early lead. The hope is that Jon Heacock doesn’t wait until the second half to find a defensive approach that works, and that the Cyclones head to the locker room ahead by double digits, putting Iowa’s fate in the hands of Spencer Petras. I suppose it tempts fate to put this into the ether, but if Iowa needs a good day from Brian Ferentz and Spencer Petras to win, Iowa State’s going to win. The key for Iowa State is getting the game into those guys’ hands. And, well, doing all those little things they haven’t successfully done for the last seven iterations of this game.
In a week otherwise highlighted by Alabama presumably pummeling Texas and a few other games of intrigue but likely not import (we’ll get to those), Iowa State/Iowa’s kind of the main show. Iowa State’s come a long way to be in a position where another loss would be this frustrating. But they have further to go. That’s why another loss would be this frustrating.
What the Five Are Up To
The five main characters in college football—Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oklahoma—all play manageable games this week, which speaks to how far Texas has fallen. Alabama’s in Austin. Ohio State hosts Arkansas State. Georgia and Clemson play Samford and Furman. Oklahoma hosts Kent State. Nothing to see here unless it’s something really big.
What the Three Are Up To
The three secondary characters in college football—Notre Dame, Michigan, and Texas A&M—all also play manageable games this week. Texas A&M hosts Appalachian State, and while the Mountaineers are notoriously scary, the Aggies are nearly three-touchdown favorites. Notre Dame enjoys a similar spread against Marshall in South Bend. Michigan is favored by more than fifty points against Hawai’i in Ann Arbor.
The Intrigue
Despite such a quiet week up top, there’s good stuff happening in the shadows. In the SEC, Florida and Kentucky give each other an early test in Gainesville while Arkansas hopes South Carolina’s still a year or more away as the Gamecocks come to Fayetteville. In the Pac-12, USC goes to Stanford to give us our first glimpse of whether this full-transfer effort has many legs. Across conference lines, high-upside Tennessee goes to high-downside Pitt, playoff sleeper Oklahoma State hosts Arizona State, Baylor and BYU play in a game which could conceivably turn into an annual Big 12 Championship, Houston and Texas Tech play in a similar game (both Houston and BYU do have clear playoff paths, for whatever those paths are worth), Wake Forest tries to assert some legitimacy at Vanderbilt, Kansas State hosts Mizzou in a hoped-for breakout blowout, and Mississippi State goes to Tucson to play Arizona. Plus, CyHawk. It’s a good week, but there isn’t much headlining it.
Are the Rams Good?
It’s possible there just weren’t any good NFL teams last year, or at least not good enough to get past the medium ones. The Rams, who always appeared decidedly medium even as they earned their Super Bowl rings, were stomped at home by the Bills last night. It’s just one game, and the Bills were one of the teams who looked good but suffered from inconsistency last season (like the Packers, Bucs, and Kansas City), but it felt like a return to reality for the Rams. Is this reality? My guess is it’s somewhere in between.
Packers/Vikings
The Packers are only narrow favorites in Minnesota, and my best guess at the explanation is that the market’s concerned about the passing game and the health of the offensive line. David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are, per Matt LeFleur, questionable. Allen Lazard is doubtful. The defense might need to make some plays.
Still, to be favored on the road against your chief competition in the division in the first game action your quarterback has seen with this group of receivers? That’s a pretty good spot to start the season. The Packers would like this win. They don’t need it.
Rays/Yankees
The Brewers swept their doubleheader with the Giants yesterday, rising back to life, while the Twins finally beat the Yankees, the White Sox smoked the A’s, and the Phillies fell to the Marlins, all affecting their playoff cases accordingly.
For the Yankees, the three games this weekend against Tampa Bay are not do or die. They’re do or panic. To some extent, as we’ve said before, New York’s trying to run out the clock. They lead by four and a half, and while that’s just three in the loss column, the fact the Rays have three more games left to play than the Yanks do is an advantage for New York in and of itself. Another advantage? Five of those take place this coming Monday through Thursday in Toronto. The Rays’ schedule is tough. Yesterday was their last off day until September 26th, and in the span until then they play three in New York, five in Toronto, seven at home against the Blue Jays and Astros, and three at home against the Rangers. Not an easy stretch, and it’s followed by a road trip through Cleveland, Houston, and Boston.
In short, then, if I’m the Yankees, I’m just trying to avoid a sweep. It’s not pretty, but it should do the trick.
Other baseball news:
Rule changes are coming. Major League Baseball voted today to approve three changes.
The first is the implementation of a pitch timer, which brings with it a rule limiting pickoff attempts. Presumably, this pickoff piece will make it easier to steal and higher-risk to throw over early in an at-bat, but it’s the one that carries the most risk of making a farce of a single game. The pitch timer itself carries the most risk of getting pitchers hurt, but it’s their and their team’s job to figure out how to pitch amidst this. Franchises have had practice with their minor leaguers. Hopefully Rob Manfred’s right, and this results in slightly poorer pitching and thereby more balls in play. Hopefully he’s not too right, and it doesn’t lead to some silly home run binge that messes up the record books.
The second is the implementation of shift restrictions. As expected, these will keep all four infielders’ feet on the dirt and will mandate two infielders stand on each side of second base. Ideally, this leads to more base hits, but it might take a while.
The third is the implementation of bigger bases, something that will not only make plays on the bases safer and make things easier for runners trying to evade tags (and hold onto the base while doing so) but will also narrowly decrease the distance between both first & second and second & third.
Overall? The thing about rules is that if they don’t work, they can and will be repealed. I have no opposition to the league trying this out.
More:
- The MLBPA is joining the AFL-CIO, adding access for players to certain union resources. I’d guess this isn’t something we actively notice. It could help players, and it could hurt them. Unions serve an important purpose, and they also often have some grift, and the larger a bureaucracy grows, the greater the opportunity for grift within it.
- Freddy Peralta’s going back on the IL, because even a good day for the Brewers right now can’t be a good day. Corbin Burnes was electric yesterday, but Peralta’s battling shoulder fatigue. Eric Lauer’s being evaluated with an elbow strain and hasn’t gone on the IL yet, but might get there. Aaron Ashby’s on the IL. That leaves Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Adrian Houser as the remnant of a once-promising rotation. Tough spot.
- The Rays are getting Wander Franco back from the IL today to face the Yankees. The Yankees put DJ LeMahieu on the IL yesterday. Game on.
And on the Cubs side:
- The Reds have plucked Luke Farrell off of waivers, which isn’t entirely surprising. Good for him, best of luck to him.
Playoffs, Where They Have Them
IndyCar doesn’t technically have playoffs, but it’s gotten itself into a championship race this weekend out at Laguna Seca. Will Power leads the field by twenty points, clinching the title with no help if he finishes in third place. Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon are tied behind him, each well within range to grab the season title, while Marcus Ericsson and Scott McLaughlin are 39 and 41 points back, respectively, meaning they not only need things to go wrong for Power and right for themselves, but they need help on the Newgarden and Dixon fronts as well. It’s a three-man race, and Power has a head start.
NASCAR’s playoffs go to Kansas, where the field’s wide-open and Bristol, even in what may be a dawning era of yawning short tracks, looms chaotic as the Round of 16 finale. There’s high upside for winning on Sunday, and there’s high downside for crashing, and while that’s always the case it’s heavily amplified this time around.
Formula 1’s at Italy—the second Italian race of the year, not a lot to watch for there unless you just love watching F1, which is fair! It’s cool! They go fast!
Movelor Is Close (That’s the College Football Model)
Movelor itself, our rating system (Margin of victory-based elo with recruiting) we’re using to run the simulations of games, is done. We need to build the season simulator still, though, and we need to test it, and we need to try to add in some conference tiebreakers. Hoping to have this done in time to incorporate it into Sunday’s quick read before a full launch on Monday. From there, on to Gelo and the NHL.
On that topic, some housekeeping:
We’ll have college football bets tomorrow morning. We’ll have motorsports bets Sunday morning. We’ll have a quick Week 2 recap Sunday morning. Possibly more things, too, so check back.
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Viewing schedule for the weekend, second screen rotation in italics:
College Football (of significance, at least in its time slot)
- Friday, 7:30 PM EDT: Louisville @ UCF (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Alabama @ Texas (FOX)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: South Carolina @ Arkansas (ESPN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt (SECN)
- Saturday, 12:00 PM EDT: Missouri @ Kansas State (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 3:30 PM EDT: Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (ABC)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: Iowa State @ Iowa (BTN)
- Saturday, 4:00 PM EDT: Houston @ Texas Tech (FS1)
- Saturday, 7:00 PM EDT: Kentucky @ Florida (ESPN)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Southern Cal @ Stanford (ABC)
- Saturday, 7:30 PM EDT: Arizona State @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2)
- Saturday, 10:15 PM EDT: Baylor @ BYU (ESPN)
- Saturday, 11:00 PM EDT: Mississippi State @ Arizona (FS1)
MLB (of significance, to ourselves and others)
- Friday, 4:05 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Cubs, Rodón vs. Smyly (MLB TV)
- Friday, 6:35 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Pittsburgh, Mikolas vs. Contreras (MLB TV)
- Friday, 6:40 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Miami, Peterson vs. Cabrera (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:05 PM EDT: Boston @ Baltimore, Bello vs. Voth (MLB TV)
- Friday, 7:05 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ New York (AL), Rasmussen vs. Montas (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Friday, 7:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Corbin vs. Syndergaard (MLB TV)
- Friday, 8:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Texas, Stripling vs. Dunning (MLB TV)
- Friday, 8:10 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee, Lodolo vs. Alexander (MLB TV)
- Friday, 8:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Minnesota, Quantrill vs. Bundy (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:40 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Seattle, Morton vs. Ray (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:40 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Oakland, Giolito vs. Kaprielian (MLB TV)
- Friday, 9:40 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Diego, May vs. Clevinger (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 1:05 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ New York (AL), Kluber vs. Taillon (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 2:20 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Cubs, Webb vs. Stroman (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Saturday, 4:07 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Oakland, Lynn vs. Martínez (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 5:05 PM EDT: Boston @ Baltimore, Wacha vs. Lyles (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 6:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Fedde vs. Suárez (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 6:10 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Miami, Carrasco vs. López (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:05 PM EDT: Toronto @ Texas, Gausman vs. Arihara (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:15 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee, Anderson vs. Houser (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 7:15 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Minnesota, McKenzie vs. Archer (FOX)
- Saturday, 7:35 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Pittsburgh, Flaherty vs. Brubaker (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 8:40 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Diego, Urías vs. Snell (MLB TV)
- Saturday, 9:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Seattle, Fried vs. Kirby (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:05 PM EDT: Boston @ Baltimore, Hill vs. Bradish (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:05 PM EDT: Washington @ Philadelphia, Sánchez vs. Nola (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:35 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Pittsburgh, Quintana vs. Keller (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:35 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ New York (AL), TBD vs. TBD (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 1:40 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Miami, Walker vs. Luzardo (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT: Cincinnati @ Milwaukee, Dunn vs. Woodruff (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 2:10 PM EDT: Cleveland @ Minnesota, Bieber vs. TBD (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- Sunday, 2:35 PM EDT: Toronto @ Texas, Berríos vs. Pérez (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:07 PM EDT: Chicago (AL) @ Oakland, Cueto vs. Irvin (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:10 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Seattle, TBD vs. Gonzales (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 4:10 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ San Diego, Heaney vs. Musgrove (MLB TV)
- Sunday, 8:00 PM EDT: San Francisco @ Cubs, TBD vs. Miley (ESPN)
NFL (of interest)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EDT: New England @ Miami (CBS)
- Sunday, 1:00 PM EDT: Jacksonville @ Washington (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EDT: Green Bay @ Minnesota (FOX)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Arizona (CBS)
- Sunday, 4:25 PM EDT: Las Vegas @ Los Angeles Chargers (CBS)
- Sunday, 8:20 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Dallas (NBC)
Motorsports (that we cover)
- Sunday, 9:00 AM EDT: Formula 1 – Italian Grand Prix (ESPN)
- Sunday, 2:40 PM EDT: IndyCar – Grand Prix of Monterey (NBC)
- Sunday, 3:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas (USA)
