Apologies for the Big Ten-centric notes today, but…they schedule well, folks. Always something to talk about with that league.
Can Indiana Win the Big Ten?
It’s an honest question, wild as it may seem just five days after they lost in State College. Indiana’s only 2-2 in conference, but if the league doesn’t go to Illinois or Purdue, they’re one of six teams who’ve proven themselves capable enough of competing to steal the thing, and with Covid scheduling uncertain, a potential imbalance could always fall Indiana’s way.
In the short term, the Hoosiers are currently poised to be favorites in five of their next seven, with the exceptions a road game against Iowa (winnable) and a home game against Purdue (also winnable). The other five are all losable, so this breaks both ways, but at the very least, a path to the top of the standings exists.
Why are we asking this in the first place, though? Well, the Hoosiers shut down Ohio State last night. 51 points on 68 possessions, 32% shooting on twos, 19 missed threes, 15 turnovers…the Hoosiers shut down Ohio State last night, and they should shut down a lot of teams as the season goes on. Only one Big Ten team is in the top twenty in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating. It’s Indiana. They’re seventh. And while their offense is flawed, Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best offensive weapons in the country, giving them a potential out in games where other teams might simply go coldly to a loss (Race Thompson isn’t a bad sidekick, either).
Illinois is the clearcut conference favorite. But Indiana’s a good sleeper. As good as even Ohio State, perhaps.
Johnny Davis!
Another banner night for the Badger sophomore, who dumped in 26 against Iowa in a game much less close than the nine-point final margin. Not only did Wisconsin break its losing streak against the Hawkeyes, but it also scored eighty or more in a Big Ten game for the first time since a double-overtime affair with Indiana 365 days ago today. Can Wisconsin win the Big Ten?
Loyola Might End Up Needing That
It was a bit of a no-lose move, Loyola agreeing to go play San Francisco in Salt Lake City. There are few scenarios in which the loss would end up damaging, and while they hadn’t played in about a month, they stood a reasonable chance of winning. They did win, and now, they have at least one win over a likely tournament team, bringing their record in that category to 1-2.
1-2 isn’t anything to write home about in this context, but with what could be a 3-2 Quadrant I record (their win over Vanderbilt came in Nashville, and they’ll get to play Missouri State in Springfield in conference play), Loyola may wind up immune from the no-good-wins designation that’s doomed many a fellow legitimately good mid-major. Good for them, and good on them for scheduling the game. Good on San Francisco as well, who has just as much work to do in WCC play as they did entering that fatestruck community college.
The Weekend
Aside from the FCS National Championship (where the question is whether Montana State’s defense can keep it close enough and/or induce enough turnover magic for the Bobcats to sneak past NDSU), it’s a college basketball weekend. Let’s go conference by conference:
Big 12
Iowa State, in whom we take a special interest (in case you might be new), visits Oklahoma tomorrow at 6:00 PM EST. That game’s on ESPNU, and the gist of it is that it would be a good win but it wouldn’t be a bad loss. Oklahoma’s nothing all that special. They’re efficient scorers, especially inside, but they turn the ball over a lot and their defense, while solid, doesn’t have any areas where it really stands out. It would be big if George Conditt could do some neutralizing in terms of rim protection, but Iowa State could also collapse and dare Oklahoma to shoot, a dare the Sooners shouldn’t, and might, take.
Elsewhere in the league, the biggest one’s Kansas’s trip to Texas Tech. That’s at 4:00 PM EST tomorrow, and it’s only on ESPN3.
Big Ten
Michigan State goes to Michigan tomorrow, who as we talked about earlier this week is staring down an empty calendar after the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines aren’t at that point yet—their chance of making the NCAA Tournament field is still better than fifty percent—but a loss might change that, especially if it’s emphatic. For MSU, the desire isn’t just to aide its rival’s downfall. With a win, the Spartans keep pace with Illinois in the loss column, and move one win ahead of the Illini in wins. 2:30 PM EST. FOX.
SEC
The big one here’s a Tennessee/LSU matchup at LSU tomorrow at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN2. Winner likely stays within a game of Alabama and Auburn for the league lead. Loser falls to two back.
Big East
No blockbusters here, but UConn’s trip to Seton Hall is intriguing and meaningful. 12:00 PM EST tomorrow, FOX. These guys are both in crowded territory on the S-Curve, making games like these possibly worth an entire seed line come Selection Sunday.
ACC
Louisville is somehow 4-0 in conference play, and while “somehow” in this case means they haven’t played a tournament team yet within the ACC, it’s been an auspicious-enough start that they’re right there with UNC for the eventual two-seed in the ACC Tournament, while simultaneously sitting in a spot where they could miss even the NIT (those things won’t both happen, but they’re comparably likely—Louisville had a terrible nonconference season, and the ACC is terrible as a whole by its own standards). They go to Florida State tomorrow night. Florida State might not be able to afford a loss this bad. Louisville could use a good road win, and not just for the ACC standings. 8:00 PM EST, ESPN3, and do you mind if I mention that Virginia goes to UNC at 1:00 PM EST on ESPN in an effort to climb back towards the bubble and pull UNC down towards it?
Pac-12
DNP – Covid (not literally, but nothing good here)
AAC
Cincinnati plays Memphis on Sunday in Memphis (3:30 PM EST, ABC). Tigers are trying to stop all the disasters (there have been three or four, by my count, with two or three good performances mixed in). Bearcats are trying to work their way towards the bubble and build off a decisive win last night over SMU at home.
Mountain West
Colorado State goes to San Diego State tomorrow afternoon (4:00 PM EST, CBS) in the first meeting between two of the league’s three favorites. Colorado State’s still undefeated on the whole year, as well. Fun one to watch if you’re into spending January picking out mid-majors to support in March.
WCC
BYU hosts Saint Mary’s tomorrow night (10:00 PM EST, ESPN2), and so begins the quest for a four-bid West Coast Conference. Godspeed, institutions of historically marginalized corners of American Christianity.
The Rest
The best the other mid and low-majors have to offer:
- Rhode Island @ Davidson (Saturday, 2:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
- Northern Iowa @ Missouri State (Saturday, 6:00 PM EST, CBSSN)
- Iona @ Saint Louis (Saturday, 8:00 PM EST, ESPN+)
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Enjoy it, friends. See you along the way.
