GQ ran a profile of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, and I would suggest that opposing Pac-12 fanbases make as big of posters as they can of Williams in the clothing GQ selected for the photo shoot. They did not dress this man in three-piece suits. They made this man look silly. If that is fashion, I want none of it, and I suggest we shut down the broader fashion industry until we can figure out what is going on.
The profile made a lot of headlines with a section highlighting how much a shift it will be for Williams, who has had total agency over his career to this point, to be drafted by whichever NFL team chooses him. Williams’s father, Carl, points out that Williams will have college eligibility remaining beyond this year, so he could theoretically return to school if he doesn’t like the team that’s going to draft him. Specifically, Carl cites what he says Lincoln Riley says were bad situations for Riley’s other Heisman winners, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.
Understandably, the prospect of the current top NFL prospect not entering the draft because he doesn’t want to play for the Cardinals caused a stir. It’s a great headline. We’re using a variant of it here! What’s more, Carl Williams isn’t being dumb, even in the event he’s completely serious. College football offers the best financial leverage it ever has for a quarterback in Williams’s position, a Heisman winner with repeat aspirations quarterbacking a team that’s at worst one of the country’s twenty best. Also? That team plays in Los Angeles, California. Caleb Williams can work the non-football economic markets like no football player at his stage in this game ever has. Caleb Williams could take out record-setting insurance policies on his body and his performance. Caleb Williams has more leverage than Eli Manning did.
But yes, Eli Manning. Eli Manning found himself in this very situation in 2004, the same which irked Bo Jackson in 1986 and John Elway in 1983. Like both those others, Manning ultimately found himself a situation he liked, and so will Williams. Because while the NFL is a monopoly with labor rules negotiated by those already in the league (excluding incoming draftees and thereby making them the front line for NFLPA concessions), it still can’t stop holdouts, and it can’t stop pressure from agents and pressure through the press, and it has no incentive to stop those things because stopping those things would make the next round of CBA negotiations that much more difficult. There’s a literal CBA, but there’s also a soft one around the edges, one where it’s accepted that players will disregard their contracts from time to time and Archie Manning might allegedly lobby for a trade to help his baby boy. In the NFL’s 32-owner cartel, there are plenty of incentives between the participants to keep the whole thing afloat. Caleb Williams will end up somewhere he wants to be. Good for his father for seeing the situation that clearly.
Among Other Holdouts: How Much Is a Defensive Tackle Worth?
Nick Bosa’s holdout is over, as of two hours ago, with the 49ers agreeing with the defensive end on a record contract. Chris Jones’s holdout continues, with Kansas City unlikely to see its best defensive player on the field tomorrow night in the season opener against Detroit.
Interestingly, the line hadn’t really moved on this game since May. Travis Kelce’s hyperextended knee (no long-term absence, if this is the first you’re hearing about it) moved the odds by about two points, but before that, the line which sat at 6.5 when the schedule was released in May was still sitting at 6.5 points. There’s been other roster changing since then, but Chris Jones, one of the best three or four players supposed to be playing this football game, was either expected to hold out, is expected to play tomorrow night, or coincidentally is perfectly equal to all other movement in the ingredients composing the betting line over these last three and a half months.
I don’t really know the answer to the subtitular question here: I don’t know how many points Chris Jones is worth. It’s harder in football than it is in baseball or even basketball to assign a point value to a single player, especially when that player isn’t a quarterback. I think it’s interesting that Kelce is seen as being worth two points, though. Surely, Jones should be similar? If not worth more?
In Packers news: Rashan Gary has seemed to establish he doesn’t intend to hold out, with his agent, Ian Clarke, telling Matt Schneidman yesterday that the pair plans “to operate professionally and remain open to reasonable contract offers in every phase of (Gary’s) career.” That’s one way to do it, and it sure is nicer for Packers fans. In other Packers news, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs both didn’t practice today. Don’t like that!
It’s Cy-Hawk Week
I was personally quite happy with Iowa State’s performance against UNI, and I thought it was a nice rebuke to the overwhelming pregame narrative that the 2023 Cyclones are going to stink. I can’t remember seeing another betting line bet down by so many points in so quick a fashion with no injuries or suspensions or other absences impacting it, so covering even the opening 21-point spread felt great, and covering the closing 7-point spread was a relief.
It seems Rocco Becht is the guy under center, though I’m curious what Nate Scheelhaase will have up his sleeve for Saturday involving JJ Kohl and Tanner Hughes. We plan to have more on the game Friday and possibly Saturday, but for now, it’s just an exciting week. It’s supposed to be hot and sunny on Saturday but far from unbearable. It’d sure be fun to build a little winning streak over the Hawkeyes.
The Big 12’s broader narrative was a weird one, but it pivoted the conference in a traditional direction for its last go-round with OU and UT: Oklahoma might be very, very good. Yes, Arkansas State is bad, but beating any FBS team 77–0 requires being a very good team, and I don’t think Arkansas State is the worst in the subdivision. I’d still call Kansas State the conference favorite, and I respect the Texas hype, but Oklahoma has made the strongest case so far. What does that mean for Iowa State? Not a whole lot, other than that the game in Norman at the end of the month is going to feel more like the Kyle Kempt game heading in than the later Brock Purdy matchups. What means more is that if TCU and Baylor and Texas Tech are all as down this year as they (especially the first two) appeared, ISU may have a shot at fourth place in this league, with even a fringy little chance to sneak into the conference championship if a ton of things break right. That’s getting outrageously far ahead of ourselves, but the conference’s middle isn’t as good as it’s been, and there’s reason to doubt every team at the top.
On the gambling scandal, Jake Remsburg and Hunter Dekkers each agreed to a plea deal today. I believe Dekkers’s NCAA punishment is unresolved, but Remsburg will be suspended until the Cincinnati game on October 14th, meaning he’ll miss games against Iowa, Ohio, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and TCU in addition to the UNI contest. DeShawn Hanika was ruled permanently ineligible, but is reportedly planning to appeal. He had one year of eligibility remaining before the scandal came to light.
The Dodgers Have Some Responsbility for Their Players
Julio Urías made a choice, and if the allegations are true, Julio Urías made a despicable choice, arrested Sunday night on a felony charge for hurting his spouse. This is Urías’s responsibility, we are all responsible for our actions. Also: I’m curious what the Dodgers did to work with Urías after his 2019 domestic battery suspension. What requirements did they place on him? What resources did they find him and/or his family? The Dodgers generated a lot of goodwill when they cut Trevor Bauer, but with this lower-profile player, I’m curious what attention they gave. You can never fully control the actions of a 27-year-old man (unless you are the 27-year-old man in question), but I wonder how the Dodgers approached the rehabilitation from whatever exactly happened in 2019.
In other sad baseball news, both Andrew McCutchen and Anthony Rizzo are out for the season, McCutchen with an Achilles tear and Rizzo with those post-concussion symptoms. It doesn’t sound that Rizzo’s symptoms have worsened, but they haven’t improved enough for it to evidently make much sense to try to bring him back. Hopefully he can get right over this offseason and longterm effects are minimal. With McCutchen: I’m glad he got hit number 2,000. I’m also glad he’s only 36. He’s sitting one home run from 300, and I’d have to imagine someone will give him a chance to get that next year.
On the Cubs side: Things are going well! Stealing a home-field slot from the Brewers or Phillies is a more relevant concern than holding off the Reds, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants, and that is a great place to be. There’s no guarantee it’ll stay that way, and these seven upcoming games against Arizona (there are three in Denver mixed in) are pivotal, but yet again, this team weathered a storm, coming back from those two ninth-inning losses in Cincinnati to score 39 runs over the last four days, and 35 over the last 27 offensive innings. Jordan Wicks continues to elate. If the postseason started today, I would give him the Game 2 start. He has to maintain it—Hayden Wesneski did this sort of thing around this time last year—but he gives the Cubs a better chance to win right now than anyone not named Justin Steele, and that’s not a knock on Kyle Hendricks or Javier Assad or even Jameson Taillon, struggles and all. Wicks is pitching great. (Hopefully, Marcus Stroman comes back and renders this question moot. That’s still a good hope. But that’s a good situation too! The question is getting closer to being about who gets bumped from a rotation with Stroman in it than who steps up if the Cubs need a new fifth starter again.)
One thing that’s come up lately with the Cubs is whether to rest guys at all these next four weeks in anticipation of October. Personally? Absolutely not. Rest no one any more than you must, Cubbies. You aren’t going to be hosting the NLDS, there’s a better than 50% chance you’d have to get through both the Dodgers and Braves just to make the World Series, please prioritize 1) making the playoffs and 2) securing home playoff games before all else. Also, don’t tempt fate. The 2023 Cincinnati Reds are harder to kill than scorpions.
Would Shelton or Tiafoe Have Given Us a Better Chance?
Tennis is, I would argue, the biggest it’s been in America in years right now, with Ben Shelton’s breakout continuing with an electric four-set elimination of Francis Tiafoe last night. Where this leaves us, as a nation, is that we have one American in the men’s semifinals—Shelton, he plays Novak Djokovic on Friday—and one or two Americans in the women’s semifinals—Coco Gauff, who plays Karolína Muchová tomorrow, and then Madison Keys, who plays Markéta Vondroušová tonight in the quarters.
The U.S. has been stronger in women’s tennis than men’s over the last few decades, a trend amplified by the greatness of Serena Williams, but even in women’s singles, only one American has won a major in the last six years: Sofia Kenin, who won the 2020 Australian Open. The last American major winner before that was Sloane Stephens when she won the 2017 US Open. So, Keys or Gauff breaking through would be a landmark achievement of its own.
The real landmark, though, is on the men’s side, where we’re about to go twenty full years without a singles title in a major. Dominic Thiem won a major in that time. Marin Čilić won one. Gastón Gaudio won one. Novak Djokovic won 23 (possibly 24). But since Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open, no American male has won a singles title in a major.
My question, retroactive to last night, is whether Tiafoe or Shelton would have been a better bet to topple Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. My impression is Tiafoe, but I don’t know how much one result in tennis means, especially in the short term. I don’t care so much if Shelton or Tiafoe is better as I care how good each would be on Friday against Djokovic. We’ll never know for sure, but hopefully it’s Shelton, and hopefully it’s good enough.
More America
I’ll be honest, my following of the FIBA World Cup has been sparse enough that I thought the U.S. was eliminated when it lost to Lithuania. I did not understand that the second round was not the knockout stage. Turns out, we’re not eliminated, and turns out, we’re still the favorites. What a pleasant surprise.
To echo countless others: I’m not going to be excited if we win, but I will be upset if we lose. Maybe not upset. Disappointed. Concerned. A little frustrated with the NBA. I will find a way to blame Adam Silver if we lose.
(Speaking of Adam Silver’s NBA: Ramona Shelburne ran a big James Harden report today at ESPN—you can tell it was big because it dropped at *exactly* 8:00 AM Eastern Time—and it seemed to be heavily sourced from Daryl Morey’s camp, but there’s an interesting implication that no NBA team wants to pay James Harden anything close to what he wants to be paid. The market does not like James Harden right now, and James Harden is taking that personally, and it’s a weird situation in the world’s most emotionally fickle basketball league. Anyway, as someone who has been thoroughly confused by the whole situation, I enjoyed the read, but I’d recommend being mindful of how little the thing cites Harden or sources in his camp.)
Hamlin vs. Larson?
NASCAR might have a good thing going with these playoffs after Kyle Larson won the Southern 500 on Sunday night. Would it have been a better moment had Kevin Harvick won? Yes. But Kyle Larson is a better driver than Chase Elliott and a more original human being within the NASCAR world, and having him in title contention is good for intrigue. Also looking strong is Denny Hamlin, who isn’t retiring anytime soon—he announced an extension with Joe Gibbs Racing on Monday—but continues to seek that first Cup.
What I appreciate about the NASCAR season breaking down like this is that some of the best drivers didn’t make the playoffs, but there are still enough best drivers left to make the playoffs compelling. This was greatly helped by Elliott’s recklessness with the snowboard thing, Hendrick Motorsports getting penalized for cheating, and, much more sadly, by Bowman’s injury in a sprint car race, but the point is that NASCAR’s regular season mattered, even for stars, and now its postseason also matters, also for stars. This is something which ties fans in knots in other sports. They fear the best team being left out of the playoffs (MLB, college football) or they suffer through competition involving teams who have no viable chance to win a championship (NBA). What you want most—and this is something I’d argue baseball and college football actually do quite well—is one where a championship contender *can* get left out. That’s what adds the regular season stakes.
NASCAR isn’t any of these other sports, NASCAR’s season championship matters much less than those in the relative realm of titles you can win in each. (The Daytona 500 giveth, The Daytona 500 it taketh away.) But this is looking like a fun title chase. Part of that comes from having one of the sport’s biggest stars out of the field.
Steve Forbes’s Update
Steve Forbes, the men’s basketball coach at Wake Forest, gave an update on his wife’s health the other day. Johnetta Forbes suffered a stroke on August 8th, resulting in a publicized hasty exit for Steve Forbes from an Operation Hardwood event in Kuwait. She’s scheduled to leave her rehabilitation facility in two weeks and return to Winston-Salem, and she’s working towards being able to walk. It’s such a young age for this to happen, and it’s such a sad thing when it happens regardless of age, and it must be so hard for her and also for the entire Forbes family. So, continued best wishes to everyone involved.
