Yoshinobu Yamamoto was posted today, meaning the 25-year-old Japanese ace has 45 days in which to negotiate with MLB teams before choosing where to land his jump across the Pacific.
I don’t know if this is a national thought or a pet theory in Cubs circles, but every now and then, someone will theorize that Seiya Suzuki’s presence on the Cubs might improve the Cubs’ chances of landing Shohei Ohtani, speculating that it’s probably nice—when working in a foreign country whose language is not your native tongue—to have one of your countrymen working the same job as you.
By that theory:
Will the team who signs Ohtani have a better chance at Yamamoto?
Reports hold that Ohtani’s decision is likely to come in the next two or three weeks. Yamamoto’s has to come by January 4th (the end of the 45-day window). Conventional thinking holds that Ohtani will sign first, partly because the team who signs him will be out of the running to sign Yamamoto (too much money) and partly because those who fail to sign Ohtani might be more motivated to land Yamamoto. What if the conventional thinking has this “too much money” piece backwards, though? All it takes is one team—one deep-pocketed enough to sign Ohtani—to match the best offer for Yamamoto, and to then say: Hey. We know there’s going to be a lot of pressure on you. Don’t you think that would lessen if you got to play on the same team as the greatest baseball player in the history of the world?
Maybe this is just a pet theory in my own little Cubs circle.
The NL Central Favorites
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have signed Lance Lynn on an effective one-year, $11M deal. That’s a pretty good price for Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn is a decent bet to be worth 1.5 WAR or more.
More importantly, for Cubs fans reading this, the signing extends the Cardinals’ lead in FanGraphs’s current–roster projections for next year. Based on players currently signed to each team, the Cardinals are the best team in the division on paper by a full five wins over the Brewers and six wins over the Cubs. The Cardinals have more of their big fish already on the boat than the Cubs do—they already have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, while the Cubs are sure signaling that they’re going to add another salary or two like Dansby Swanson’s—but to benchmark what the Cubs have to do this offseason to make themselves the NL Central favorites, the on-paper projections are a good place to start. In those projections, the Cardinals are the main team the Cubs are chasing.
Where Are the Lakers Going?
LeBron James had a special game last night, scoring 37 points and making the eventual game-winning free throw while playing 40 minutes in a win over the Rockets. The oldest player in the NBA right now scored 37 points. That’s special!
It was against the Rockets, though, hot but likely overperforming, and it only brought the Lakers to 8–6, and what’s maybe most interesting about this Lakers team is remembering how different last year’s November Lakers looked from last year’s April Lakers. Part of the LeBron James experience at this point in his career is that to a greater extent than any other player, he chooses with whom he plays. The biggest question for the Lakers, then, isn’t how well LeBron is playing. It’s how LeBron feels about the shape of the team.
It’s Possible to Sign a Bad Max Contract
Theoretically, it should be very hard to sign a bad max contract. The max contract, by definition, implies a good deal. It’s a capped price. You can’t have a larger contract than the max. No matter how good a player his, you cannot pay him more than the salary of a max contract.
What this means is that any player at or above the value of the max contract should get one, and with the probability near zero that a player’s worth exactly one max contract, this means every player who signs a max contract should, by market value, be underpaid. Basic microeconomics hold that it’s harder to sign a bad max contract than to sign a bad deal of any other price in today’s NBA.
This makes it kind of impressive when a player on a max contract is clearly not worth the money he makes, especially when it isn’t because of any off-court concern. Good work, Bulls. You’ve done it again.
Miscellany
In my world:
It was a nice win for the Packers yesterday. As many have said, they needed that, especially with the Lions and Chiefs coming up. It was enough to start a hopeful narrative, especially if they can look respectable against the Lions on Thursday coming off the short week. But, Aaron Jones got hurt again. It doesn’t sound season-ending by any stretch (which was a big relief when we found out), but they’ve had to go grab Patrick Taylor back from the Patriots’ practice squad, maybe because the short week makes familiarity valuable? Either way, anyone hoping for a 2007 Ryan Grant pickup (that was me who was hoping for that) is probably going to turn out disappointed.
Iowa State never fully got it going against Texas. Sometimes you’re overmatched and you hang in there, but sometimes you’re overmatched and you don’t. More on the Cyclones sometime soon. Big weekend ahead for the wrestling and the basketball.
It was a tough weekend for the Blackhawks, but the franchise momentum there is positive enough that the status quo is a positive feeling. They’re in the sweet spot in the rebuild, and given how long hockey rebuilds can last, they might be in that spot for a long time.
The USMNT held off Trinidad & Tobago enough in tonight’s Nations League quarterfinal second leg, and with that, they’re into Copa América, where they could theoretically (this won’t happen; they will not win Copa América; South America is collectively too good) play their way into the CONMEBOL–UEFA Cup of Champions in 2025. I love how interwoven all the soccer cups and leagues are. It’s very fun for a dork like me who likes tiebreakers and kooky tournament formats and such.
