There was, predictably, a reaction to the Packers not drafting a wide receiver last night in the first round. That’s what happens with running jokes. They get run into the ground. The Packers, who memorably have declined to invest resources in getting Aaron Rodgers playmakers and recently did draft a second quarterback early in the proceedings, declined to either trade up to draft a receiver overvalued at the position they’d draft him at or select a second-round talent with a first-round pick. They focused on their defense instead, adding two of the most impactful players available when Green Bay was on the clock (Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt, respectively a linebacker and a defensive tackle, both from Georgia) and in doing so, addressed areas of need. The exact kind of thing you want your general manager to do, Brian Gutekunst did, and there was, predictably, a reaction.
It was surprising that Treylon Burks didn’t fall to 22, but his selection by the Titans via the A.J. Brown trade wasn’t a rash move. The Titans got younger and cheaper at receiver while exchanging a known quantity for one with a comparable best-case. The rash moves came earlier in the round, and put the Packers in the receiver position they were in, but Gutekunst handled it well, and tonight, the Packers will probably get an NFL-ready receiver at a sensible opportunity cost. They have nine picks remaining, with two in the second round and one in the third. There are also more avenues through which to add personnel, if that’s what makes sense. This “makes sense” thing is key. It didn’t make sense last night to reach for a weapon outside.
Breece Hall Falls to the Second Round
Mild surprise here, with Breece Hall dropping to the second round after many had him slated to go to the Bills, who traded the 25th pick to the Ravens instead. With Hall, you just hope he ends up in a good situation. If he ends up in a good situation, we’re happy, and really, anything could be a good situation. Some are more questionable than others, but there isn’t a doomed spot for a guy like Hall to go.
Isaiah Wong, Terrence Shannon, and Other Friday Drama
Weird end to the college basketball week.
It started last night, with news coming out that Isaiah Wong—a Miami guard who topped 20 points in the Hurricanes’ NCAA Tournament wins over USC and Auburn—was threatening to transfer if Miami boosters didn’t get him more money via NIL. Predictably, this rubbed some folks the wrong way. Evidently there’s nostalgia for the days when people shut the hell up and let others leech off of their economic value (nostalgia bizarrely held, generally speaking, by the tribe which currently talks a big game about keeping others from taking their economic production) or kept it all under the table and much more susceptible to exploitation. Regardless, it worked out, Wong’s staying at Miami, with Hurricane booster John Ruiz relaying that Adam Papas, Wong’s NIL agent, reached out to him, a conversation Ruiz said succeeded through his continued promise to help Wong obtain additional NIL deals beyond that already agreed to with Ruiz.
Trouble keeping all that straight? The sparknotes are that a Miami booster was paying Wong, Wong wanted more money, the booster said he couldn’t give Wong more money but that he’ll help Wong work with other boosters, and Wong decided that was enough for him. Sounds a lot like a job negotiation to me.
In the later news—Mark Adams, bad guy?
You hope this isn’t true, but Michigan player Hunter Dickinson is alleging that Adams, Texas Tech’s nationally beloved first-year (now second-year) head coach, wouldn’t allow Terrence Shannon Jr. to take summer classes and graduate Texas Tech early, resulting in Michigan being unwilling to admit Shannon and Shannon ending up at Illinois. It’s a very concrete allegation, and while we don’t know its veracity, it’s ugly, if true. Is this widespread? I have no idea. Did this even happen? I have no idea. Why wouldn’t Michigan let him in anyway? I don’t know. But Dickinson tweeted it, Juwan Howard’s son Jace tweeted something to the same effect, and Illinois is the big, innocent winner.
In other portal news, Fardaws Aimaq—a Utah Valley big man who’s currently the lowest-ranked five-star transfer on EvanMiya (still very good)—committed to…Texas Tech! That’s a good bit.
In other portal news, Jaelin Llewellyn—the Princeton point guard who previously committed to Clemson only to withdraw said commitment—committed to Michigan! Let’s get some new characters, guys.
Noah Freidel, South Dakota State sharpshooter who was oddly absent the second half of SDSU’s season, has committed to James Madison. Wonder if any broader story exists with him, a guy I, at least, assumed bigger programs would pursue.
De’Vion Harmon, right around Aimaq in quality but a guard from Oregon, is joining Texas Tech.
Khalil Shabazz, San Francisco point guard; Osun Osunniyi, St. Bonaventure big man; Pete Nance, Northwestern big man; Isiaih Mosley, Missouri State phenom guard; and Josh Minott, eventual NBA prospect and Memphis forward; are all into the portal.
And, in the last news of the day as this goes off for editing…Jaren Holmes is coming to Iowa State.
One of St. Bonaventure’s iron five (to steal a phrase), Holmes is an offense-first guard who played more minutes than just about anyone in the country and was effective when it came to scoring, most notably from the free throw line when putting the points on his own stat sheet. He gives Iowa State a veteran presence some would opine they sorely need offensively, with a more proven track record than Jeremiah Williams, the other major backcourt pickup so far. A continued strong transfer season for T.J. Otzelberger, and the Cyclones still have two scholarships available, if my math is correct.
Shouldn’t get too many new entries into the portal from here, with the deadline for athlete submission of their own names fast approaching. Due to paperwork time, some may trickle in early next week, but we’re pretty well-set on that end, for those wondering where this stops.
The Cubs Were…Fine
Drew Smyly pitched pretty well again for the Cubs last night, but Kyle Wright was better, shutting down a Cubs offense that only scored on some funky baserunning in the second. The Cubs were out-xBA’d .313 to .183, which means Atlanta hit like a .313-hitting team in terms of contact quality and the Cubs hit like a .183-hitting team. Not as close as the 5-1 score (2-1 after seven and a half innings) looked.
The Cubs are on to Milwaukee now, where they’ll run into a Brewers team narrowly in control of the Central. The Brewers are the prohibitive division favorites, they’ve won eight of ten, but their stumble out of the gate (part of which came against the Cubs) was big enough that they only lead the Cardinals by one game (Cardinals have had a solid start, too, to give some credit there). Depth has been a question for Milwaukee, notably reliant on five guys (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Josh Hader, Devin Williams), but the emergence of Adrian Houser, tonight’s starter, and Eric Lauer, tomorrow’s starter, is big for them.
In other Cubs news, which I forgot to mention yesterday, Alec Mills had a quad-tightness setback in his return from a back issue, so he isn’t coming back right away or potentially anytime all that soon, after all. More Mark Leiter Jr. starts, for better or worse (sorry, Leiter, but it’s worse).
Taylor Ward, Eric Hosmer, and Other Surprising Producers
The big news in Major League Baseball today is that the commissioner’s office has issued Trevor Bauer a two-year suspension following its investigation under the joint domestic violence and sexual assault policy. It’s an historic suspension, and what it says, effectively, is that the league found enough evidence of wrongdoing that it believed an historic suspension was in order. I don’t have much commentary on this. Domestic violence and sexual assault are terrible, terrible things, and I certainly don’t know as much about what happened as those who investigated Bauer’s actions.
In happier news, a guy named Taylor Ward had a great week.
Ward, a faded former Angels first-round pick, is getting MLB at-bats at a rate he’s never previously sustainably maintained them, despite playing for Anaheim in parts, now, of five different seasons. He’s got a 269 wRC+ (meaning he’s 169% better than an average MLB hitter) and his xwOBA is .490, relative to a .542 wOBA (meaning he’s only been a little bit lucky, relatively speaking, in terms of the results he’s gotten relative to the quality of his contact). He and Mike Trout (of course Trout was involved) led the Angels to a four-game sweep of the Guardians. The Angels now travel to Chicago to visit the White Sox. The Guardians head up to Oakland for three against the A’s.
Elsewhere involving teams from Southern California, Eric Hosmer had a surprisingly good week as the Padres swept the Reds. Two home runs, six hits, and five walks for the guy, whose current fWAR is as good as that of his last two seasons combined, and infinite times that of his fWAR over the last four years, when he’s been replacement-level despite making $18M a year (whoops). Padres head to Pittsburgh today. Reds go to Colorado. Will Eric Hosmer get moved? The Padres have tried plenty previously, wanting to dump that contract and open up roster space.
Out in Colorado, the Rockies will be trying to get their first win since Sunday after going to Philadelphia and dropping four straight to the Phillies, who needed that. Bryce Harper led the way with a home run, a triple, a double, and two stolen bases for the Phils. They’ll visit the Mets over the weekend.
The Mets took two of three in St. Louis before yesterday’s day off, with Max Scherzer’s seven scoreless innings on Monday starting things off strong. The Cardinals host the Diamondbacks these next three days after starting the series off with a win last night.
Arizona took two of three in Los Angeles, but it was Walker Buehler’s complete game shutout on Monday that drew the most individual attention. Dominant outing from the ace. The Dodgers are in an early dogfight out west, but they got a day off yesterday before hosting the Tigers tonight.
It was a disastrous trip for the Tigers to Minneapolis, where they lost three in a row to the Twins. Max Kepler did the heavy lifting for Minnesota, clobbering three home runs for the AL Central’s best, who visits the Rays beginning tonight.
The Rays had fun with Seattle in town, taking the series two games to one and pulling into (very early) playoff position in the American League. Drew Rasmussen was strong on Wednesday, throwing six two-hit innings for the home team. The Mariners now visit Miami.
Miami’s playing well, and the pitching, as it’s often been these last few years when times are good down there, is the reason why. The Marlins’ rotation has the fourth-best ERA in the NL, trailing only the Dodgers (makes sense), the Mets (makes sense), and the Diamondbacks (wait, what?). Pablo López was this week’s big performer, striking out six on Wednesday over six scoreless as the Marlins swept the Nationals, who now have the Giants to deal with in San Francisco.
The Giants had a good, weird little week, winning in Milwaukee on Monday before splitting two games at home against the A’s. Carlos Rodón continued his phenomenal start of the year, striking out nine over six one-run innings on Tuesday.
Back in New York, Anthony Rizzo had some fun with Yankee Stadium, homering three times against the Orioles on Tuesday and adding a double yesterday, in case Baltimore didn’t get the point. The Yankees swept the set and now go to Kansas City. The Orioles are home this weekend against the Red Sox.
For those Red Sox, it was a rough trip to Toronto, with Tanner Houck’s unvaccinated absence the story entering the series and the team dropping three of four the story exiting customs back here in the States. Kevin Gausman was great on Tuesday, striking out nine and allowing no earned runs over six innings of work. The Blue Jays now welcome the Astros to town.
The Astros, who’d scuffled through trips to Arizona and Seattle and visits from Anaheim and Toronto, bounced back from a Monday loss to take three of four from the Rangers in Arlington. Justin Verlander continued his vengeful return (that sounds like something a Baptist would say about God), striking out eight while holding the Rangers in check for seven innings yesterday. Those Rangers now host Atlanta.
We’ve talked plenty about Atlanta as they’ve took two of three from the Cubs, but credit to Dansby Swanson, who broke out a little with a home run yesterday and an OBP above .500 on the set. The Cubs, as stated, now go to Milwaukee.
In Milwaukee, the Brewers are having fun, sandwiching a three-game road sweep of Pittsburgh between Monday’s loss to the Giants and tonight’s game against the Cubs. Willy Adames caused the Pirates problems, doubling once and homering twice in Tuesday’s 12-8 win.
Finally, the White Sox’s struggles continued against the Royals, with Wednesday’s win a false tiding of good news as they proceeded to drop their eighth of nine yesterday. Jake Burger was good for the Sox, homering and doubling in the lone win.
Big, Big Baseball
There are too many good college baseball series this weekend to keep the list at five. The six biggest series of the weekend:
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
Miami @ Georgia Tech
We begin on our nation’s eastern coast, or a little inland from there. Virginia Tech is visiting Virginia, Georgia Tech is hosting Miami, and all four are wrestling—broadly speaking, since we include the Yellow Jackets in this designation—for the right to host postseason games—in the case of Virginia and Miami, potentially a lot of postseason games. The Coastal Division is busy, and if UVA or VT can sweep the other, Miami may have someone breathing down their neck.
Oklahoma State @ Texas
In the Big 12, there are four teams within a game and a half of one another, and two of those—Oklahoma State and Texas—are going at it in Austin, where I’m told by our southern bureau that the weather is good and the vibes are charged. We’ll see what that means on the baseball field.
TCU @ Florida State
Crossover action? You got it. Big 12-leading TCU goes to middle-of-the-ACC-but-good Florida State for a significant late-season nonconference series. Should be a lot of fun.
Georgia @ LSU
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt
Finally, in the SEC, good things are happening for all four of these programs but they’d each like to change “good” to “great.” All projected top-two seeds by Baseball America (the college basketball equivalent of being between a 1 and an 8-seed), each is a Regional contender, though they all need help within the conference (and Georgia and Vandy, by virtue of sharing a division with Tennessee, are toast when it comes to regular season aspirations).
Rolling the…Ahh, Screw It
Was going to try to mix a metaphor here with our bets for Sunday on NASCAR and IndyCar, but basically, we’ve got a fairly wide portfolio for each, which makes me both optimistic—because our win probability’s rather high—and scared, because the way our units are set up, we now kind of have a lot down on two very unproven (and so far unprofitable) markets. We did hit on our F1 bet last weekend after changing our approach there. Hopefully a comparable IndyCar shift increases our success on that front as well. We keep knocking on the door with NASCAR, but it’s been hard to get anyone to open up.
NHL Playoff Field: Not Quite Set
The playoff teams themselves are set, but with the NHL’s effective regular season finale tonight, there are still some matchups to be sorted out. The Panthers have the top seed in the East, the Avalanche have the top seed in the West, the Hurricanes and Leafs and Flames and Wild and Blues and Rangers and Lightning and Bruins and Oilers and Penguins and Capitals and Kings and Predators and Stars are all going to continue playing, and we’ll know whom each plays when we go to bed, which then means I’m supposed to spend the weekend firing up a model I may or may not fire up. Depends on a few internal and external factors, but hoping to have NHL probabilities and thereby NHL bets for you on Monday. We’ll see you then.
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Weekend viewing schedule, second screen in italics, figure it out where there’s conflict that’s what we all have to do in life:
Friday
- 8:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Brewers (Regional TV) – Hendricks vs. Houser
- 9:00 PM EDT: Grizzlies @ Timberwolves (ESPN)
Saturday
- 12:00 PM EDT: NFL Draft (ESPN? It is bizarrely hard to find a TV schedule for this damn thing.)
- 3:07 PM EDT: Astros @ Blue Jays (Regional TV) – Garcia vs. Berríos
- 4:10 PM EDT: Twins @ Rays (Regional TV) – Archer vs. McClanahan
- 6:10 PM EDT: Mariners @ Marlins (Regional TV) – Ray vs. Luzardo
- 7:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Brewers (Regional TV) – Steele vs. Lauer
Sunday
- 1:00 PM EDT: Bucks @ Celtics (ABC)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Cubs @ Brewers (Regional TV) – Stroman vs. Burnes
- 3:00 PM EDT: NASCAR Cup Series @ Dover (FS1)
- 3:30 PM EDT: Timberwolves @ Grizzlies, if necessary (ABC)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Phillies @ Mets (ESPN) – Eflin vs. Scherzer
