Rob Dillingham hit a big shot for Kentucky last night. He hit many big shots, but there was one that was particularly big. The big one was a jumper from the baseline which nearly won the game for Kentucky in the closing seconds, before LSU pulled some Louisiana voodoo and volleyball-set a semi-loose ball into the net. The ones before it were 19 more points worth of magic in ten minutes of basketball. There is a reason Dillingham is a projected first-round pick in so many NBA mock drafts.
There is also a reason, though, why Kentucky fans are upset Dillingham isn’t getting more minutes on a Wildcats team that continues to merely flirt with success. The loss was Kentucky’s fifth in its last nine games. It dropped them to 8–5 on the SEC season. Dillingham played 22 minutes, fifth-most on the team. It was the most minutes he’s played in a game since Kentucky blew out Vanderbilt more than two weeks ago.
There is probably, again, also a reason for why John Calipari isn’t playing Dillingham more, though Coach Cal continues to be vague in his explanations. Dillingham is not the best example of the phenomenon we’re about to explore. Dillingham should be playing more minutes.
Most of us know the George Carlin routine about the whimsy of baseball and the regimented nature of football. I’d like to hear Carlin on the modern NBA. But even back in 1984, I’d imagine a close examination of basketball would reveal something that’s true of it today as well:
While football is about speed and strength and baseball can be measured down to a hundredth of a single win, basketball is a game of vibes.
To take an objective view of Dillingham, EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating grades him as the 76th-most positively impactful player in the country. The metric is a rate stat, so it’s per possession, making Dillingham’s time on the bench a small deal. Dillingham being on the floor is, per EvanMiya, less good news than the same being true of 75 other players in the college game. Sam Vecenie’s latest mock draft, meanwhile, has Dillingham as the 8th college player to come off the board.
What’s going on? Part of this might be that John Calipari is struggling to figure out the best way to use Dillingham. If Dillingham’s abilities are enough to justify that kind of pick, he should at least be in the top 25 on BPR. Part of it might also be Dillingham’s skillset translating better to the pro game than the college game. The Zach Edey phenomenon, reversed.
But a lot of it, in sincerity, is that players often underperform at Kentucky right now. It’s what Kentucky basketball is. It’s not a lack of talent. It’s not a lack of athleticism. Part of it is scheme, sure. But part of it is vibes. The intangibles. Culture. Discipline. Focus. Competitiveness.
Rob Dillingham is a great college basketball player. He’ll likely be an even better pro. Some of that might be skillset. A lot of it is, in the eyes of the scouts clamoring for their employers to take him in the first round in June, because he’d benefit from a change in vibes.
Ok the 14-Team Playoff Might Be Real
We really pooh-poohed that 14-team playoff speculation on Tuesday, when Yahoo relayed talk of it from Washington State president Kirk Schulz. Whoops! From ESPN:
According to sources, the most dominant discussion of a new model revolved around a 14-team playoff, and CFP leaders left Wednesday’s meeting feeling there was momentum. The bump from 12 to 14 teams, as opposed to 16, would mostly address the issue of access rather than finances.
Is this from the Big Ten and the SEC, the sources driving the boat? We think so:
There has been a push, especially from the Big Ten, for an increase in automatic qualifiers for the CFP. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has made it clear that he values the regular season and believes that increasing automatic qualifier spots could assure that late-season games have higher stakes.
“We want fans to think that you know a game in the second week of November, even if you’ve already lost two or three games, still has a lot of value,” Petitti told ESPN last week. “That’s the goal.”
A 14-team playoff would likely mean that the highest-ranked conference champions end up with a bye, which would incentivize those league title games. From there, the format would play out like the 12-team playoff that is debuting this season.
This is insulting from Petitti towards us, of course. We’re supposed to believe that this is about driving up the drama of late-season games? An automatic bid versus an at-large bid won’t change that. This is about money, like so much is, and we’re all wearing our big boy and big girl pants here, Tony. If the Big Ten or SEC Championship lacks sufficient intrinsic incentivization, college football has a problem a first-round bye isn’t going to solve. Still, that inserted detail illustrates the piece of this we’ve been missing:
The Big Ten and SEC don’t want more teams in the playoff for the sake of having more of their teams in the playoff.
The Big Ten and SEC want more teams in the playoff so the other conference champions don’t get byes.
In the 2024 and 2025 format, a maximum of six of the eight quarterfinalists can be Big Ten and SEC teams. If the 14-team format happens in 2026, those eight can be all Big Ten and SEC. In a sense, that might be fair. Rank the eight best college football teams heading into next year and your list might be entirely comprised of teams from those two leagues. It’s not a terrible idea—we’ve already diluted the meaning of playoff team, two more teams isn’t going to alter college football’s DNA—but that’s the reason. It isn’t that they want more first rounders. It’s that they want the ability to fully control the quarterfinals, if their teams are good enough to get there.
The Big Ten/SEC arms race, one which seems it could possibly engulf the entire Power Five before too long, has its downsides. But one thing that would be very fun? If we could get past this playoff era entirely and get back to one raw national championship game between two deserving candidates. If the Big Ten and SEC reach 32 teams apiece, an OG Super Bowl-style matchup between their respective champions would carry more meaning than the 12 and maybe 14-team future currently in the GPS.
The Rest
College basketball:
- New Mexico and Colorado State delivered a fun one last night won by Donovan Dent in the closing seconds in The Pit. We’re as on board the 6-bid Mountain West train as anybody, in terms of how likely we think it is to happen. There are dangerous games in that league, but they’re mostly ones with low probability of disaster. Even UNLV is good enough that if they beat Colorado State on Saturday in Vegas, Colorado State should be fine. We’ve seen the collapse before (I think it was Boise State in 2021 who really wilted and fell into the NIT), but all six good teams out there continue to cook.
- Alabama survived a tough one from Florida in overtime, but the bigger story there might be that Mohamed Wague managed to get away with bringing his forearm down hard on the back of Alex Condon’s head. For a moment, anyway. There are some reports out that the SEC is suspending Wague three games for the act. We have not confirmed their veracity.
- George Mason took down Dayton, but it was in Fairfax and George Mason’s good enough that it shouldn’t move too many needles on the Flyers.
- Washington State’s trip to Arizona is the biggest one tonight. We’ve grown to believe in the Wildcats as a national title contender, but they only lead WSU by half a game, and while it’s in the loss column (where you’d prefer it to be), WSU won the matchup in Pullman. The Pac-12 regular season title might be decided tonight.
The NHL:
- The Bruins and Oilers played a great one last night in Edmonton, one which lasted well past midnight on the East Coast. Eleven total goals, including the game-winner from Charlie McAvoy in overtime for Boston. Playoff hockey is only two months away.
The NBA:
- NBA action resumes tonight post-All-Star Break, with 24 teams in action. Knicks/Sixers and Lakers/Warriors are the main events, but there are five competitive games (on paper) in total between playoff teams, which is something that happens when two thirds of your league makes the playoffs (effectively).
Chicago:
- Not included in those five games is the Bulls’ visit from the Celtics, though the Bulls are more likely than not a playoff team (if you count the play-in tournament, which we do, because we are annoyed by the NBA and annoyance begets contrarian behavior). It’s a familiar story with games like this: The Bulls can compete. They’re good enough to do that. But if they win, it won’t boost hope the way it would for a young team in a similar position.
- The Blackhawks fell neatly to the Flyers. Didn’t catch any of it personally, but there was evidently some good mic’d up content between Connor Bedard and Nick Foligno, including this clip.
