Joe’s Notes: Baseball’s Most Impactful Player (So Far)

I like looking at FanGraphs’s WPA (Win Probability Added), because it’s the most literal evaluator of how impactful a player has been. It doesn’t necessarily reflect value, and it definitely doesn’t reflect how good a player is, but it does sometimes show you things like how big a difference Ranger Suárez made last year in Philly.

For those now curious, Sandy Alcantara currently leads the Majors in WPA. He’s only 19^th in fWAR, but to be fair, he does lead in bWAR. Also leads in innings pitched, by a full nine innings, which explains how all the value and win probability’s been accumulating with such force.

The “surprise” guys on the list are Clay Holmes, who’s only got 1.1 fWAR (1.9 bWAR) but is second among MLB pitchers in WPA; Josh Naylor, who’s eleventh among position players in WPA mostly because of that one outrageous game against the White Sox; and Austin Hays, ninth among position players in WPA despite trailing four or five players in fWAR on the Yankees alone.

I’m most curious about Holmes, as the year goes on. Josh Hader led the majors last year. Would be a big, quiet deal if Holmes was the most impactful this time around. The guy was below replacement level three years ago.

We’re Not Firing All the Managers

Relax, all ye who have watched the Cubs and wonder how David Ross hasn’t gotten fired. This isn’t his fault! Or so says the front office, thereby effectively accepting blame.

It’s fair to question the Cubs’ performance on the field compared to the strength of their roster. The roster is mediocre. The performance is terrible. It’s fair to ask if that divide comes due to Ross. It’s possible it does, and it’s possible that’s worth a firing, but it’s also possible it does and that isn’t worth a firing because the Cubs don’t need Ross to win right now, they need him to develop young players right now.

I don’t know. Basically, the back-to-back firings of two prominent managers on playoff-contending teams seem to have everybody looking for the next guy to get axed, and it isn’t actually that simple. Someone has to manage this team.

In other Cubs notes, I’m not concerned about Caleb Kilian’s bad outing last night, in the long term. It doesn’t change any reasonable perception of him. For those who wanted him to come out of the minors like Mark Prior? Yeah, pump the brakes on that. But that wasn’t a reasonable perception. Kilian’s projected by FanGraphs’s systems to be something like a 4.25-FIP starter the rest of the year. That isn’t incredible, but it’s solid for a rookie, and it’s better than that of Kyle Hendricks. Even the 8.00 ERA is tempered by a 4.48 current FIP. He also hasn’t actually allowed much hard contact. No home runs yet, walks were the problem but that could be just a weird, weird night. The hope for Kilian is that he can be a part of the rotation for next season and beyond, but it’s too early to be hoping on him to be an ace. He needs space to develop. Far from a finished product.

The Lightning Struck, But Not Enough

The Lightning coming back to force overtime last night seemed an omen of a competitive series, but they’re also now one game-as-an-underdog away from heading back home 2-0, something that doesn’t feel terrible, given they just did it against the Rangers, but would be terrible in a practical sense, especially given how much better the Avalanche are than the Lightning’s last opponent.

The odds for Game 2 currently look roughly identical to those from Game 1, yet Gelo is leaning more towards the Avalanche, which has me wondering if it could actually outpace the market and flip to the Avalanche’s side if they blow the Lightning out in Game 2. Lot of ifs in there. For our bets, we’re comfortable at the moment. Still planning on game-by-game hedges unless we acquire the leverage, via the Lightning winning one or more, to place a series pick on the Avs.

Will the Warriors Win It Tonight?

Every fiber in the universe seems to point towards Boston forcing a Game 7 tonight, except for the fiber which states that if every other fiber points the way of something happening, its probability is overrated by groupthink. I kind of like the Warriors to get it done. Losing that one in Memphis was one thing. Forcing themselves into a Game 7 in the Finals? That’s something else. Even if things go badly, we should expect some rallies.

Transfer Windows? Makes Sense.

The NCAA is likely to implement transfer windows, marking specific times when players can transfer. We’ve been pretty forcefully against most NCAA regulation of this process, but this is a good idea as long as the window is large enough to not force players or programs into an artificially-deadlined decision. Simplifies everything for everybody.

Big 12/SEC Challenge: Iowa State vs. Mizzou, Again

Good matchup for Iowa State, playing Mizzou again in this coming season’s Big 12/SEC Challenge. Another likely bubble team with upside. No break this time around, but you don’t want to be a program which gets a break in this kind of event. That means you’re bad, and that you would be a break for somebody else were the other conference as good as the Big 12 is.

***

For the viewing today and tonight, we’ve been watching the Cubs and the U.S. Open as we work through today’s work. Aside from the Finals game tonight, we’ve got the Yankees trying to bury the Rays a little bit, with Luis Severino on the mound and a sweep in sight, plus the Brewers trying to keep getting their feet back under them against the Mets. Aaron Ashby vs. Tylor Megill in that one.