One of our favorite things to do when considering the MVP award is to look at which player, numerically, has been the most impactful. Which player has changed the course of games by the highest margin?
You can take this to an extreme level, looking into the leverage of individual games, but we usually just look at WPA instead: Win Probability Added, the measure we see on FanGraphs reflecting how much every pitcher moved the win probability needle while on the mound and how much every hitter moved it while at the plate. It has a few flaws—there’s no accounting for defense or baserunning, it’s a little hard to explain—but it’s the best metric we have of measuring actual wins-and-losses impact, rather than simply performance.
The current leader is…
Oh, it’s Aaron Judge. By a lot, too. More than two wins ahead of Manny Machado, who’s the NL guy. Dammit. I thought we were gonna get Jhoan Duran or someone like that (Duran leads pitchers, so if you’re voting for Most Valuable Pitcher you could throw him the nod).
Well, another reason he should be the favorite, I guess.
The White Sox Are Done
The White Sox aren’t technically done, but after last night’s loss to the Guardians, it’s nearly definitively over. They are seven games back, they have just twelve games to play, they’ve done it. The season is lost.
On the bright side, for White Sox fans, at least your franchise isn’t masking its mediocrity with division championships, like the…2021 White Sox did.
Other races:
Aaron Judge, Albert Pujols
No home runs for either of these guys last night. At some point, is 698 cooler than 700 if you’re Pujols? Because it showed you were ready to say you were done, independent of the number? I still hope he gets it.
NL East
The Phillies took down Atlanta, 1-0, largely thanks to some stellar work out of the bullpen by Zach Eflin and José Alvarado. This drops Atlanta to a game and a half back of the Mets, which is a lot at this late stage.
NL Wild Card
The win also kept the Phillies two and a half games clear of the Brewers, who beat the Reds, and pulled them within half a game of the Padres for the 5-seed, as the Pads fell to the Cardinals after Brendan Donovan hit a grand slam in the seventh. Something of a last stand for Milwaukee this weekend, who needs both wins and help at this stage.
AL Wild Card
The Rays broke out of their little slump, beating the Blue Jays 10-5 in a game where each of Tampa Bay’s first five batters in the order registered two or more hits. Earlier in the day, the Mariners got a win over the A’s, though George Kirby did struggle, which is concerning for Seattle. Those three are back within a loss of one another, with Toronto in front for the 4-seed.
The Cubs
Hayden Wesneski just keeps doing it. Through 22 innings, which has more or less been four starts, the not-even-a-rookie-yet has a 3.25 FIP and a 1.43 xERA. I’m curious how much this changes his offseason prospect ranking. How set in stone are those things?
The News
The Dodgers have extended Daniel Hudson, picking up his 2023 option and solidifying that piece of their bullpen. I haven’t followed matters too closely out there, but I wonder if they’d consider him as an option to close games.
Ryan Yarbrough’s on the IL, likely ending a weird season for the former Rays ace.
Julio Rodríguez is going to get an MRI on his back, adding further concern for Seattle ahead of the playoffs. Beyond the immediate, October concerns, backs are not a fun thing to hear about with injuries. Especially not when you just extended a guy for a long, long time. This, though, is why those extensions make sense for guys like Rodríguez. He’s got his security, and he earned it.
Mike Soroka’s been shut down for the year, and while Atlanta’s saying there’s no structural damage, the guy’s been out long enough now—nearly three full seasons—that you’d imagine a lot of development’s been lost. It just stinks for the guy.
Santiago Espinal’s going on the IL for the Blue Jays with an oblique strain, and given the timing, it’s possible we won’t see him back this postseason. Part-time player, but every guy counts.
The Yankees have designated Miguel Andujár for assignment, closing their chapter on one of the better prospects in the prospect era for that franchise. It just never quite worked out. Zack Britton has been activated, and Wandy Peralta’s on the IL.
Some Housekeeping
We’ll have more notes tomorrow, where we’ll cover Iowa State and the Packers’ games. Our full preview of college football’s fourth week is available here. We’ll have two picks for those games in tomorrow’s bets.
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Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
MLB (of playoff race and home run chase significance, plus the Cubs)
- 6:35 PM EDT: Cubs @ Pittsburgh, Assad vs. Wilson (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Milwaukee @ Cincinnati, Lauer vs. Cessa (MLB TV)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Atlanta @ Philadelphia, Odorizzi vs. Nola (MLB TV/ESPN+)
- 7:05 PM EDT: Boston @ New York (AL), Hill vs. Cole (Apple TV+)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Toronto @ Tampa Bay, White vs. Springs (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: San Diego @ Colorado, Manaea vs. Feltner (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Seattle @ Kansas City, Gonzales vs. Singer (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: New York (NL) @ Oakland, Bassitt vs. Irvin (MLB TV)
- 10:10 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Los Angeles, Quintana vs. Heaney (Apple TV+)
College Football (of interest)
- 7:00 PM EDT: Virginia @ Syracuse (ESPN)
