Quick ones today, Cubs are on and I want to eat lunch (i.e., we don’t have that much to talk about).
Put On Your Smyly Face
Drew Smyly looked great for the Cubs yesterday, and I’ll admit to being surprised. It’s just one start, and it was against a woeful Pirates lineup, but even in last year’s fine-ERA, bad-FIP year in Atlanta, Smyly was rarely as good as he was yesterday. Is this his ceiling? Probably, yeah. But what a ceiling it was. No runs, no walks, a bunch of weak contact…we’re all about that from a back-of-the-rotation (hopefully) starter.
The Cubs’ rotation remains a question mark—Alec Mills won’t start on Saturday, so there are still just four starters and two of those are unproven historically—but either the Cubs have gotten away with it through five games or it’s better than it appears, and those are both good possibilities. Kyle Hendricks is on the mound today, Justin Steele starts tomorrow, Marcus Stroman starts Friday, Smyly goes again on Sunday, and between those games and Saturday’s it’s hard to ask for more than three wins, which appears decently doable (even with a bad start so far today, as this goes to publication). Step by step.
Offensively, it’s so, so early, but the Cubs are seventh in baseball in wRC+, for whatever it’s worth. Most of that’s come from Seiya Suzuki (two home runs yesterday, up to a ridiculous .616 FanGraphs xwOBA) and Ian Happ (.522 xwOBA), but Willson Contreras has been smoking the ball, Rafael Ortega’s had a solid start, and for as terrible as Frank Schwindel and Patrick Wisdom have been (again, it’s so, so early), that was a possibility for which the Cubs were very prepared.
The Cubs have yet to play a night game, and you do wonder if that’s wearing on them. They did get an off day on Monday, but I’d imagine they’re excited to get to Denver tonight and get to sleep. Hopefully they bring a win with them.
The Medium Term
The series-based structure of the baseball schedule is interesting competitively, and we probably don’t put enough weight on how choices early in a series affect outcomes later in a series. “We,” in this case, does not include Gabe Kapler.
Last night, the Giants bunted while blowing out the Padres, and the Padres were upset. It was understandable that they were upset. Blowouts in baseball are painful affairs, and often reach a point where both teams want them done. To a fault.
As Kapler explained after the game, the bunt was not an exercise in attempted disrespect, or an attempt to further cement an already-cemented lead. It was an attempt to win today’s game, by further depleting the San Diego bullpen, and to make the Padres more likely to lose later in the week as well, by the same token. It’s a small thing, but compared to what else baseball teams do to gain fractions of an advantage? It’s rather big when viewed through that lens.
Last year, a frequent question regarding the Giants was how they were doing it. One thing I personally didn’t consider, and haven’t dug into, was the willingness of Kapler to be unconventional. Managers often aren’t worth much. Again, though, in San Francisco the norm might not apply.
Back Like Bacot
Armando Bacot is coming back for UNC, announcing this morning that he’ll return for another year. Bacot was the 11th-ranked player on EvanMiya this year, and he was memorably perhaps the most important figure in UNC’s title game run. Bad news for the ACC, great news for Carolina, good news for those of us without a dog in the fight. Bacot’s a lot of fun, and is an early Player of the Year contender.
Into the Portal
Elsewhere with the Tar Heels, Dawson Garcia is back into the transfer portal. Garcia, a big man who just transferred to UNC from Marquette prior to this year, missed much of this season, returning home to Minnesota to be with his family as they dealt with a number of medical issues. Upper Midwestern programs are on high alert.
Kendric Davis, the SMU point guard who won the AAC’s Player of the Year award, is also transferring, and what program wouldn’t want a proven veteran point guard with a remarkably low turnover rate and a sensational shooting percentage given his usage rate? Really. Is there a program that wouldn’t want Kendric Davis?
Out of the Portal
Among EvanMiya five-stars, Eric Gaines and Jaelin Llewellyn are no longer on the table. Gaines will join a UAB program awaiting Jelly Walker’s completion of the NBA draft decision process, while Llewellyn will go to Clemson. A Gaines/Walker combination in the backcourt would be a lot of fun in what I believe is the Blazers’ final year in Conference USA.
Where the Cyclones Stand
On the Iowa State side, Tristan Enaruna announced he’s transferring, ending that forward-speculation. There’s plenty to backward-speculate on regarding Enaruna, but the quickest evaluation is that he was probably a good player and a bad fit, and with no known reason to think ill of him, we hope whichever program lands him finally brings that talent all the way to the surface.
The leaves ISU with three open scholarships provided Gabe Kalscheur returns, which still isn’t confirmed. It’s possible more outward movement will happen, but right now, it’s likeliest the Cyclones will only be adding from here. As we wrote yesterday, Hason Ward is visiting Ames this weekend, but since we wrote that, reports emerged that Grant Basile will also at some point be visiting Iowa State, along with Blacksburg, South Bend, and Madison. Basile’s an offense-first big, and if watching the Cyclone “offense” this last year grated on you, an offense running through a big like Basile would be a great reprieve, because even if the offense wouldn’t be all that good, it would be better, and it would be less of an exercise in dribbling to nowhere.
I’m curious if ISU could be in the mix for Garcia, given the proximity to the Twin Cities and the significance of the role the Cyclones could offer him. A question with all of this is how many bigs ISU’s willing to add, but we’d hope it’s at least two, given all three of these guys—Ward, Basile, Garcia (about whom I’m purely speculating here)—would be sizable improvements from the current options.
Down Go the Vols
Finally, Tennessee’s winning streak ended at the hands of Tennessee Tech last night. It was a midweek game, and the Vols are still the College World Series favorites, but the streak is no more.
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Viewing schedule today, italics for the muted screen:
- 12:35 PM EDT – Cubs @ Pirates, Regional TV
- 3:45 PM EDT – Padres @ Giants, Regional TV
- 7:00 PM EDT – Hornets @ Hawks, ESPN
- 7:05 PM EDT – Blue Jays @ Yankees, Regional TV
- 9:30 PM EDT – Spurs @ Pelicans, ESPN
