There was, as there will be for months to come, a lot of baseball this weekend.
The Cubs Started Well
Yesterday’s loss was disappointing, but the weekend as a whole was a success. Against the teeth of the Brewers’ rotation, and therefore the Brewers, the Cubs took two out of three. That’s a good start.
Marcus Stroman’s start felt better at the time than it did in hindsight. He had a bit of trouble finding the zone, walking just as many guys as he struck out. That said, he only allowed one run over five innings of work, and he’s not exactly someone we’re worried about in the rotation. He’ll be fine, and he definitely seemed to have fun, which was fun for us as well.
A start that feels just as good in hindsight is Justin Steele’s from Saturday. Five scoreless, only one walk, five strikeouts. Steele was someone we’d been hoping on as a good multi-inning relief guy. If he really can contribute to the rotation, it’d be a godsend, especially with Wade Miley and Alec Mills currently sidelined.
Seiya Suzuki got that first home run, which we’re all thrilled about. It’s too early to be looking at xwOBA (I’m not even sure if it’s out there), but home runs are a hard thing to fluke into, and he was good across the board. Meanwhile, Ian Happ was the MVP of the series, even without playing yesterday. Nice for him to have a good two games. Hopefully it turns into a hot start. We’ll come back to Ian Happ.
The concern from the weekend was the bullpen, which allowed seven earned runs in fewer than twelve innings of work, yielding two home runs, walking five, and hitting two batters (one clearly unintentionally). Overall, it was a 5.40 ERA from the unit, and the FIP (5.03) isn’t much better. Jesse Chavez, Daniel Norris, and Rowan Wick all struggled, Norris in two appearances. Overall, it’s too early to be too concerned about the relief corps, and it’s worth giving credit to imports David Robertson, Mychal Givens, and Chris Martin, who allowed a combined three baserunners over four innings, as well as the young guys—Scott Effross, Keegan Thompson, and Ethan Roberts—who allowed four baserunners over their own four innings. Thompson was especially good, striking out four of the ten batters he faced on Saturday as he saved Chavez and Norris for yesterday afternoon. He’ll likely be suspended, but it should be short.
Thompson will likely be suspended, and we have to talk about Ian Happ, because if you missed it, tempers flared on Saturday. Brandon Woodruff hit Willson Contreras with a 96-mph fastball up and in early in the game, and after a 91-mph slider (I think it was a cutter) from Trevor Gott got away, striking Happ in the knee and knocking him out of the game, Keegan Thompson seemingly retaliated, throwing a fastball just past Andrew McCutchen’s hip with two outs in the next inning and then hitting McCutchen in the spot he’d just missed on the next offering. The Brewers and Cubs have hit each other with a lot of pitches over the last few years, but a preponderance of those from the Brewers have hit Contreras, a preponderance of those have been fastballs up and in, and the Cubs are evidently tired of it again, just as they were last year, when this last blew up (Woodruff was involved then as well).
I don’t see how anyone can fault Contreras for being upset. I’ve been lucky in my life to not be hit in the general area of my arms, shoulders, and head by a number of baseballs traveling 90 miles per hour, but I would imagine they hurt. Regardless of whatever generalizations Brewers fans are throwing at him, Contreras was diplomatic after the game, saying he’d stood closer to the plate last year than he’s standing this year and acknowledging he doesn’t think the Brewers are hitting batters on purpose. He did, though, get at what’s been the Cubs stance about this thing for the last few years, which is that the Brewers are being reckless with inside fastballs against the Cubs, failing to control them, and hitting batters a lot in the process. Throwing inside with that velocity at or above the letters is a gray area, but the Cubs’ stance seems to be that the Brewers need some discouraging if they aren’t going to locate those pitches, and the Brewers’ stance seems to be that if the Cubs retaliate, the Cubs are the ones in the wrong. McCutchen was specifically upset about how Thompson did it, criticizing the pitcher for starting the at-bat with an offspeed pitch rather than just drilling him right away, and we see merit there. At the end of the day, the Brewers’ argument seems to be that they should be allowed to put players in danger because it’s their gameplan, and the Cubs’ argument seems to be that the Brewers shouldn’t. I’m obviously a biased interpreter here, but the Brewers’ stance is more than a little ridiculous. If you’re going to throw fastballs up and inside and fail to locate them as often as the Brewers have failed to locate them, you can’t be upset when a team responds. It’s what Clint Hurdle was doing with the Pirates all over again, and you can do that, but you should expect and accept the reactions.
Thankfully, Happ is evidently ok. He was held out of yesterday’s game as a precaution, but he shouldn’t go on the IL or anything, and x-rays were negative. The incident did make me wonder about a Craig Counsell rule, though, stating that if a player leaves the game immediately following a hit by pitch, that player’s team can designate one player from the opponent to be removed. It could be abused, but that’s kind of the point: it would raise the price of throwing inside, since right now it’s open season on hitters as long as it’s part of your gameplan. Thompson will be suspended, Woodruff won’t be, Woodruff’s pitch was objectively the more dangerous of the two. As an added benefit, this would help offenses, which is something Major League Baseball is interested in doing. Batters could dig in a bit deeper. Batters could focus more on the outer half of the plate. Does it have to be named the Craig Counsell rule? Of course not. But his team is currently one abusing the system.
Around the League
The Guardians are on their way to splitting a four-game set with the Royals, leading in the ninth as I type this. Steven Kwan, the 58th-ranked prospect league-wide by FanGraphs, went five for five yesterday and has a triple to his name today. Tomorrow the Royals will head to St. Louis and the Guardians will go to Cincinnati.
Nolan Arenado had a big weekend for the Cardinals, who took two of three from the Pirates at home. Two home runs, three doubles, one four-hit game. Great start for the third baseman, and for the Cards, who benefitted from the Brewers’ struggles in Chicago. The pair was supposed to play a fourth game today, but it was postponed. The Pirates await the Cubs tomorrow afternoon, where they’ll play their home opener.
Matt Olson started the year strong for Atlanta, who split four games with the Reds. One home run, eleven times on base in 17 plate appearances. Atlanta hosts the Nationals on the front half of this week.
Elsewhere in the A’s diaspora, Mark Canha had a good weekend for the Mets, recording seven singles and three walks in 13 plate appearances. The Mets took three of four from the Nationals and now start a series in Philadelphia.
Kyle Gibson made the best start of the weekend by fWAR, striking out ten A’s on Saturday across seven innings of two-hit, no-walk ball. Gibson’s never topped 3.0 fWAR in a season, but that 3.0-fWAR year was last year. The Phillies took two of three. The A’s are down in Tampa to start this week.
Danny Jansen was the fWAR leader from a wild Blue Jays/Rangers series in which two of the three games featured one team coming back from a five or more-run deficit. Jansen homered in each of those two games, and Toronto took the series. They’ll start a set with the Yankees tonight in the Bronx. The Rangers are currently hosting the Rockies.
Jurickson Profar hit a grand slam yesterday to cap a two-homer weekend in which the Padres took three of four from the Diamondbacks. If you recall Thursday’s game, the Padres nearly swept the series, in hindsight, and Friday’s game featured Sean Manaea being pulled after seven scoreless, no-hit, one-walk innings. Just 88 pitches, too. Aggressive management by San Diego, but after these last few years of pitcher injuries (Blake Snell might be headed back to the IL, by the way), can you blame them? The Diamondbacks are home tomorrow against the Astros. The Pads go to San Francisco tonight.
Speaking of San Francisco, Carlos Rodón had a good debut there on Saturday for the Giants, who took two of three from the Marlins. The Marlins travel down the coast to Anaheim today, where they’ll meet…
…the Angels, whom Alex Bregman tormented with a six-hit weekend, homering twice. Three wins in four games for the Astros.
Anthony Rizzo had a nice weekend for the Yankees, hitting two home runs of his own while the Bronx Bombers took two of three from the visiting Red Sox. The Red Sox are in Detroit today.
Byron Buxton and the Twins aren’t done with the Rangers just yet, with a chance to salvage a split from the series tonight. Buxton’s homered three times in the first three games. Tomorrow, the Twins will host the Dodgers while the Mariners travel down to Chicago to play the White Sox.
Andrew Vaughn was the hero for the White Sox yesterday, homering for the second time in three games against the Tigers, two of which Chicago won. Vaughn didn’t have a bad rookie year, but it was underwhelming for a prospect of his reputation. Key figure there as they try to defend the Central.
Wander Franco posted the best numbers in the Rays’ sweep of the Orioles, reaching base in half of his twelve plate appearances. The O’s are hosting the Brewers today.
Finally, it was an ugly series in Denver, but the Rockies won it over the Dodgers, two games to one. Walker Buehler threw five strong innings in the Dodgers’ lone win.
College Bits
In the college game, Florida took that series from Arkansas we mentioned Friday, bolstering their postseason hopes. Miami swept Virginia, and the final game was decisive. Oklahoma State battled back from a Friday loss to take the Bedlam set in Stillwater. Texas took two of three from TCU. Mississippi was swept by Alabama after losing a midweek game to Southern Miss. LSU swept the defending champs in Starkville. Louisville took two of three from UNC, including a bizarre one yesterday that went 14 innings and was delayed for more than two and a half hours due to a bomb threat. Tennessee continued to roll, sweeping Mizzou in Knoxville.
Recency vs. History
We hit on our IndyCar bet this weekend, missed narrowly on NASCAR, and whiffed again on Formula 1. My current impression is that recency is a strong indicator in F1 whereas history’s a stronger one in NASCAR, with too few data points on IndyCar to make much of a judgment. Will be curious to see how this plays out as we research more over the months and years ahead. The gist of our model design with these sports, if we can ever complete it, is to have variables for each driver, team, and make of car at every track, as well as an overall performance variable, with the track-specific variables linked track-to-track depending on their historic correlation. This is a lot of work, which is part of why it’s always been a work in progress.
Transfer News, Saint Peter’s Has a Coach
Saint Peter’s is hiring Bashir Mason out of Wagner to be its next head men’s basketball coach, answering our question from a few days ago about whether Saint Peter’s would go for a fellow low-major head coach or try to grab an assistant from somewhere. Mason takes over a good program and a bad one. On the one hand, Saint Peter’s has had little historic success and the facilities are famously underwhelming. On the other, the MAAC is routinely rather open and the Peacocks have just introduced a lot of fans to their name. We’ll see. On the other side of the hire, Saint Peter’s gets a guy who’s shown himself able to win at the low-major level in the New York area, and while the MAAC is stronger than the NEC, the expectation should be that Saint Peter’s can compete.
In transfer news, Will Richard is going from Belmont to Florida, giving Todd Golden an excellent shooter on top of some strength down low in the returning Colin Castleton. This is probably big for Golden, taking over a program with little history of not being competitive. Not a lot of space for a rebuild there, and bad teams lose a lot of games in that conference these days. Elsewhere, Brandon Murray is going from LSU to Georgetown, Joe Toussaint is going from Iowa to West Virginia, and Jake Stephens is moving from VMI to Chattanooga, following his coach across the SoCon. Stephens is going to be one of the SoCon’s best players next year if not the best overall, and in a tough league, Chattanooga might manage to avoid missing a beat despite their transition.
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As far as tonight goes, FS1 has the Mets @ Phillies game on (6:45 PM EDT), and sometimes it’s nice to let the national broadcast schedule guide you. Later, the Padres are in San Francisco (9:45 PM EDT, regional broadcasts), and in addition to being an important matchup in the NL (and the NL West, specifically), the Padres’ Nick Martinez is making his return to American professional baseball after pitching in Japan and for Team USA over the last four years. Interesting guy for the Padres in that he’s a wildcard but also potentially a guy who can eat innings, which is unusual because most wildcards are young and therefore on short hooks.
