For much of the playoff era, college football’s power structure has revolved around Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. The Buckeyes have slipped up the most often of those three, but they’ve consistently been in the national title picture, and they’ve proven themselves more a threat to win it than Oklahoma, who’s distinctly been its own category one level below.
I’m not sure Clemson and Ohio State are quite there with the big boys anymore.
For one thing, the ascent of Georgia has given the SEC a legitimate route to putting two teams in the national title game routinely. Gone, it seems, are the days of the SEC West sharpening iron against iron while the SEC East ground its pumice into dust. The two scariest programs in the college football landscape? They’re Georgia and Alabama, and it’s going to take some losses to shake them from that perch.
For another, though, it’s been a decently long time since we’ve seen a great Clemson or Ohio State team. Over the last three years, we’ve seen Clemson get pounded by LSU, Clemson lose to Notre Dame, Clemson get pounded by Ohio State, Clemson fail to score a touchdown against Georgia, Clemson limp to a three-loss season, Ohio State lose narrowly to Clemson, Ohio State get pounded by Alabama, Ohio State lose at home to Oregon, and Ohio State get pounded by Michigan. In that time period, neither has won a single game over a team of Alabama or Georgia’s caliber. They’ve beaten each other, and they’ve beaten good teams, and they’ve been good teams, but they haven’t been 2015-18 Clemson or 2014 Ohio State.
Three years isn’t a long time, and the record of the pair against SEC powers in that stretch is only 0-3, not exactly the largest of samples. But what happened at the end of 2018? What happened right before this recent shift in the power structure? In Columbus, Urban Meyer handed the reins over to Ryan Day. In Clemson, three players (of the fewer than twenty which were tested) tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. Now, Clemson’s lost both its coordinators. Potential program-changing events happened. We haven’t seen the same level of success since. The programs may have changed.
It’s possible Clemson and/or Ohio State will prove me wrong. There’s a pretty good chance at least one of them makes the national championship this year, and there’s a realistic chance either wins it. I’m also not saying Notre Dame’s going to go into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes on Saturday. This isn’t an argument that Ohio State and Clemson are bad—I’d still pick both to win their respective conference title.
What we’re trying to do here, rather, is point out that there are good reasons to believe that Ohio State and Clemson are not what they were earlier in the playoff era. That they’re closer to Oklahoma and Notre Dame than they are to Georgia and Alabama. And that if each loses twice or more this year, while it might feel surprising, it shouldn’t.
Big 12 Aggression: Offense or Defense?
The Big 12 has opened its media rights negotiations early, taking a proactive step to neutralize any advantage the Pac-12 had in college football’s B-game arms race. The idea here is that the Big 12 will now be able to get some hard numbers from Fox and ESPN which schools can compare directly with those the Pac-12 is obtaining (why the Pac-12 is taking so long remains unclear, at least to me). What can we take away from this? It doesn’t mean anything concretely, but it does seem to signify one of two contradictory things:
The first would be that the Big 12 doesn’t seem content to let the Pac-12 restock on a Boise State and an SMU (or similar mid-majors) and go their merry way. The Big 12 is going to go into the room and make the Pac-12 earn its continued existence.
The second would be that the Big 12 actively perceives itself as being under threat, and is taking this measure to keep TCU and/or other schools the Pac-12 may be interested in poaching. It remains a little hard to believe, given relative revenues and the overall ease current Big 12 schools enjoy (even in a conference that stretches from Provo to Orlando, the travel schedule is so centered on the I-35 corridor that trips to Seattle really do look like a lot for someone like Oklahoma State; also, Washington and Oregon and Stanford are pretty obviously interested in getting to the Big Ten one day, one way or another, which bodes poorly for the Pac-12 in the long run). But it’s possible this is a defensive move.
In other realignment whispers, there were reports in recent weeks that Oregon sent a delegation to Big Ten offices to pitch themselves to the league. Those reports rather firmly stated that these were not discussions taking place “at the highest levels,” and we’ve always been led to believe that only discussions taking place at the highest levels are ones that matter, but something to keep an eye on. If nothing else, it’s further confirmation that Oregon has its sights set on the Big Ten and the Big Ten, so far, does not want Oregon.
53-Man Rosters Are Set
The NFL’s end-of-training-camp cuts are complete, and while there’ll be more shuffling as Week 1 approaches, with cut players getting picked up by other teams and those teams in turn cutting more players, the bones of the rosters are complete. Here’s the Packers’. As was appearing to be the case yesterday, Samori Toure is on it, the seventh-round pick out of Nebraska (by way of Montana) making the cut as the seventh receiver. Also of note, Mason Crosby was activated from the PUP list and made the cut.
On the Iowa State side, Brock Purdy was able to catch on with the 49ers even with Jimmy Garoppolo staying in town, and both Jake Hummel and Eyioma Uwazurike made their teams’ respective rosters, as did Breece Hall, though that was long a lock.
The White Sox Keep Losing
With last night’s defeat at home to Kansas City, the White Sox have now dropped five straight. They’re three games below .500, they’re six games out of a playoff spot, and their FanGraphs Playoff Odds are at a season low.
This feels like it’s been going on all season, but it’s worth noting how recent, exactly, the development is: Just two weeks ago, after games of August 16th, the White Sox were more than fifty percent likely to make the field. Now, the number’s well below ten percent. That’s a terrible turn, and it makes one wonder whether the White Sox might blow things up this offseason, and it makes one wonder if the White Sox maybe want to blow things up this offseason, reticent as they’ve been to really get aggressive with their cash. But that’s all a matter for this offseason. The rest of yesterday’s action:
AL Central
Not fading, the Guardians and Twins both won last night, the former over the Orioles on a pair of rallies in the fourth and fifth, the latter over the Red Sox as Nick Gordon’s grand slam busted things open. They remain separated by a game and a half.
AL East
The Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays all won, and Aaron Judge hit his 51st home run of the season. Still gaps of six and seven in the loss column, respectively, between New York/Tampa Bay and New York/Toronto.
AL Wild Card
Also winning were the Mariners, who rolled in Detroit to keep pace with their surroundings. One game separates all three of the Rays, Jays, and Mariners, with Toronto the bottom-most team there. Behind them, it’s a three-game drop to Baltimore and Minnesota. Boston and Chicago are further back, and may be out of it entirely sometimes soon.
NL East
The Mets lost to the Dodgers, but it didn’t hurt them as the entire rest of the division also lost. For Atlanta, the defeat by Colorado was the team’s third straight, and Philadelphia reached the same number when they lost to Arizona (who pulled even with the Giants for third in the West, a sign of San Francisco’s doom rather than Arizona coming to life).
NL Central
The Brewers and Cardinals lost as well, to the Pirates and Reds, keeping that gap at six games. That’s similar to the Yankees/Rays gap across the country, and to go back to those FanGraphs numbers for a minute, the numbers on the Yankees and Cardinals are similar to win their divisions. Close to locked up, but it would take an ideal week or two to make it happen soon.
NL Wild Card
For the second straight night, the Padres nearly coughed it up late to the Giants, but San Diego emerged unscathed and is now just half a game back of the Phillies. Two and a half up on Milwaukee, too, which is more significant.
News
Shane McClanahan was scratched before starting yesterday’s game for the Rays with his ongoing shoulder issue, and Brandon Lowe is going on the IL with him after getting hit by a pitch on the elbow on Friday. It’s just a bruise for Lowe (a “contusion,” per the Rays), and the word is positive on McClanahan, but it’s a high-value pair of players at a high-leverage time.
The Orioles are calling Gunnar Henderson up from AAA, bringing one of the best prospects in baseball into the thick of a playoff chase. An infielder, Henderson is just 21 years old and was drafted 42nd overall by Baltimore back in 2019. In other top prospect news, the Nationals have already sent Cade Cavalli to the IL with shoulder inflammation.
Jameson Taillon left yesterday’s start after getting hit by a line drive on the forearm. X-rays were negative.
Making matters even worse for the White Sox, this time in a personal capacity, Tony La Russa is going to miss time, traveling to Arizona to undergo some medical testing. Hopefully all that comes out fine.
The Cubs
Brennen Davis is back up to AAA and homered last night. Willson Contreras exited last night’s game with his ongoing ankle issue. Chance to avoid the sweep tonight. Looks like Luke Farrell was just announced as the starter.
Tage Thompson Has Been Extended
The Sabres locked up Tage Thompson on an extension worth $7.1M per season over seven years. That puts him in the top 100 NHL salaries, but not the top 75. For some context, the cap hit for a similarly-ranked NBA salary is (all this is coming from Spotrac, and we used cap hit for Thompson as well) roughly $16M, the cap hit for a similarly-ranked NFL salary is roughly $12M, and a similarly-ranked MLB salary (no cap, the most straightforward of the four) is roughly $14M. It’s not a great way to compare across sports, but it’s also not useless.
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Viewing schedule, second screen rotation in italics:
MLB (of Significance):
- 3:45 PM EDT: San Diego @ San Francisco, Musgrove vs. Wood (MLB TV)
- 7:07 PM EDT: Cubs @ Toronto, TBA vs. White (MLB TV)
- 2:05 PM EDT: Houston @ Texas, Javier vs. Pérez (MLB TV)
- 2:10 PM EDT: Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee, Thompson vs. Peralta (MLB TV)
- 6:10 PM EDT: Baltimore @ Cleveland, Lyles vs. McKenzie (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: St. Louis @ Cincinnati, Quintana vs. Minor (MLB TV)
- 6:40 PM EDT: Tampa Bay @ Miami, Rasmussen vs. TBA (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Los Angeles @ New York (NL), Anderson vs. deGrom (MLB TV)
- 7:10 PM EDT: Seattle @ Detroit, Gonzales vs. Alexander (MLB TV)
- 7:20 PM EDT: Colorado @ Atlanta, Feltner vs. Wright (MLB TV)
- 7:40 PM EDT: Boston @ Minnesota, Wacha vs. Ryan (MLB TV)
- 8:10 PM EDT: Kansas City @ Chicago (AL), Bubic vs. Lynn (MLB TV)
- 9:38 PM EDT: New York (AL) @ Anaheim, Cole vs. Sandoval (MLB TV)
- 9:40 PM EDT: Philadelphia @ Arizona, Falter vs. Henry (MLB TV)
Soccer (of Significance to Our Futures Portfolios):
- 2:45 PM EDT: Tottenham @ West Ham (Peacock)
- 2:45 PM EDT: Swansea @ Stoke
- 2:45 PM EDT: Rotherham @ Sunderland
