Not all championships are created equal. This is true across all sports. The “bubble” titles from 2020 are different from those won in front of full crowds. The downside of dynasties is that rings become rote. Even within teams, championship games and series have different stakes to different players and coaches. If the Mavericks win these NBA Finals, Luka Dončić’s identity will change more than Kyrie Irving’s.
We’ve discussed this in other sports with “desperation rankings,” lists identifying which franchises, cities, teams, and fanbases need the relevant title the most. At this point in the NBA season, though, there are only two teams left. The rankings are simple. The Celtics need this title more than the Dallas Mavericks.
There are facets to this, and layers. Part of why the Mavs have less to gain is that they’ve gained more already, working their way through a tough Western Conference bracket while the Celtics played mostly tune-up games against the East. Irving proved he can focus and commit to an NBA team. Dončić solidified his claim to being the second-best player in basketball. Some of those reputational gains still hang in the balance, but win or lose, the Mavericks will finish this postseason enjoying far better perceptions than they did when it began.
The Celtics, on the other hand, have maxed out any benefits they could gain without a Larry O’Brien Trophy. This is their second Finals appearance in three years, and it’s only due to their own failings that it’s not the third. They’re approaching the 40th anniversary of the 1986 title, currently trailing the Lakers 8–1 on championships since Larry Bird won his final ring. Similarly to how it goes with Karl-Anthony Towns, fans stay ready to pounce on Jayson Tatum’s failings. And while the Celtics’ “window” is a long way from closed, windows usually close faster than expectations would have things go. Add in that Boston’s a heavy favorite—somewhere in the 70% range—and there is hardly any pressure on Dallas in this series. Every weight out there sits on Boston’s side of the scale. I’m not sure there’s another team in Big Four sports who needs a title as badly as the Celtics need one these next two weeks.
Will the Celtics win this? Probably. They’re a 70% favorite. That’s a big number. Their competition in the East may have been lacking, but they did sweep the Pacers, and with Kristaps Porziņģis expected to return tonight, they should not only be fresh, but healthy. But as the Mavericks showed against the Wolves, an offense built around two of the best offensive basketball players in the world is hard to stop, especially when the two play such similar positions. The Celtics will probably win. They have a lot to gain if they do. But compared to their opponents, they have far, far more to lose.
Miscellany
- The College Football Playoff schedule is out. First round games, the on-campus ones, will happen the Friday and Saturday before Christmas. (Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve fall on Tuesdays this year.) The quarterfinals—the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl—will be played on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The semifinals—the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl—will be played Thursday and Friday January 9th and 10th. The national championship is coming on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which is the 20th this year. I’m skeptical of the ability of this 12-team format to hold interest the whole way through. But! Most rounds should hold significant interest. There will likely just be a little ebb and flow. And with the semifinals leading into the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend, there’s probably going to be some symbiosis between the two. That is going to be a gigantic football weekend.
- The Alamo Bowl tried to keep Texas and Oklahoma as options, given it signed its contract with the Big 12 through next season and Texas and Oklahoma were part of that contract. Brett McMurphy reported yesterday, though, that the Alamo Bowl won’t be allowed to use these two. My impression is that this didn’t go to court or anything, but that the SEC said no? Which should have been expected? Which makes me think this might still go to court? Not necessarily with the Alamo Bowl specifically, but with at least some jilted bowl. It’s going to be a weird two seasons for that industry.
- It took me way too long to do the math on this, but I think the net impact of the 12-team playoff on bowl slots available is negligible? There are four extra postseason FBS games—the four first-round playoff games, not termed bowls—but of those eight slots, four are negated in the quarterfinals and four are negated in the semis. Within the New Year’s Six/CFP combination, there are still a total of twelve teams. I’m guessing everyone else reached this conclusion before I did, so please welcome me to this place of recognizing what’s going on.
- Kansas lost Elmarko Jackson for the upcoming college basketball season, the sophomore guard tearing his patellar tendon in a Tuesday scrimmage. Bill Self has built more depth this season than the last few, and Jackson’s freshman year was surprisingly discouraging, but still a noteworthy blow for the Jayhawks, whose primary problem the last two years has been a shallow bench.
- There was some weird reporting yesterday about a weird clause in the A’s agreement with Las Vegas, one in which the A’s are asking to be permitted to play as many as seven home games a year outside of the new Las Vegas stadium. The seven games part is weird, because that’s reportedly roughly twice as many as other MLB teams have in their own respective clauses, but the reporting is also weird, because these clauses are evidently commonplace. (I assume this is how the Seoul Series and similar efforts have come to pass.) It’s definitely newsworthy that the A’s want the number so high, but the presentation gives the impression that this is seven vs. zero, not seven vs. three or four. As for the big number: Are the A’s just anchoring within the negotiation? Do they want the option to keep holding one series a year in Sacramento if things go well there? Do they have some pie-in-the-sky barnstorming scheme in mind that may or may not work out? Or is this authentically a concern by the A’s about needing to limit their total number of true home games due to attendance concerns? Something to watch, but not necessarily anything actually meaningful.
- Michael Bloomberg has reportedly joined the A-Rod/Marc Lore Timberwolves ownership effort in an arrangement in which he would buy Glen Taylor’s final 20% stake in the team. If Lore and Rodriguez win their arbitration case, they’ll control 80% of the franchise, with Bloomberg then providing the money to exercise a preexisting option to buy the last 20%. If Lore and Rodriguez lose their arbitration case, I’m guessing Bloomberg’s involvement is moot? In other T-Wolves news, Lore and Rodriguez might replace the Target Center, which is one of the oldest NBA arenas but—at least in my personal experience—does not feel particularly old.
