I’m not sure what the best way is to win a bracket pool. It’s an interesting piece of game theory, but not one I’m sure there’s been much strong research into, and I’d imagine it depends greatly what the makeup of your pool is. With the NIT as small as it is, and with our NIT pool as relatively large as it is, I think my best shot at winning is to look at the average quantity of “upsets” by round and seed and err on the chalkier side of those, thereby avoiding being lumped in with anyone who just picked the favorites while also not shooting myself in the foot with too many early-round upsets, as I sometimes am prone to doing.
First Round
4. Buffalo over 1. Colorado State
This is about a tossup, and since it’s likely at least one 4-seed wins in the first round, this is the best one to take. Would imagine there’s going to be some value.
2. Davidson over N.C. State
Davidson is the favorite in the top left quarterfinal, at least from what I can tell, and though only something like a 56% favorite, they’re the biggest favorite of any 2-seed.
3. SMU over 2. Boise State
I’m not convinced SMU won’t have some sort of advantage from being in the greater Dallas area. With the likeliest number of 3-seeds winning in the first round at two, and the likeliest number of 3 and 4-seeds winning either at three or four, this is a good place to take an “underdog.”
1. Memphis over 4. Dayton
Memphis is likely the best team in the tournament. Therefore, they will be my champion.
1. Saint Louis over 4. Mississippi State
Saint Louis is up there with Memphis for favoritehood. Mississippi State won’t be a huge underdog, but SLU’s long-term value in the bracket is high, even with their seed.
3. Toledo over 2. Richmond
I believe the Rockets are a straight-up favorite tonight.
2. Saint Mary’s over 3. Western Kentucky
Neither Saint Mary’s nor Western Kentucky is really all that good, but Saint Mary’s is the better of the two, and I’ve hit my quota for 3 and 4-seeds in the first round.
1. Mississippi over 4. Louisiana Tech
Mississippi is right there with Saint Louis as an alternate to Memphis.
Quarterfinals
2. Davidson over 4. Buffalo
Buffalo is tempting, but Davidson finished third the most when I ran a quick thousand simulations, and there’s some solid value to getting third-place right.
1. Memphis over 3. SMU
Again, Memphis should be the tournament favorite.
3. Toledo over 1. Saint Louis
I like Saint Louis, but the likeliest number of 1-seeds in the Final Four is one, so even putting two in feels like a stretch, and I don’t like Saint Mary’s, Western Kentucky, or Louisiana Tech enough to not take Mississippi.
1. Mississippi over 2. Saint Mary’s
See note in Toledo-over-Saint Louis.
Semifinals
1. Memphis over 2. Davidson
Again: Memphis is the favorite, Davidson might have a third-place edge (might be simulation noise, but they’re at least close).
3. Toledo over 1. Mississippi
The most common individual simulation has two 1-seeds in the championship, but the majority of simulations have someone else cracking that game. With Toledo’s experience and relatively easy first-round path (it’s striking how close every single line is—not surprising, but still striking), they aren’t a bad value play (I hope).
Third-Place Game
2. Davidson over 1. Mississippi
Rolling with Davidson.
Championship
1. Memphis over 3. Toledo
Rolling with Memphis.
Tiebreakers
The average turnover rate in college basketball this year was 18.9%. The median number of fouls per game was something like 34 or 35. There were roughly 68.4 possessions in an average game.
Without looking at individual team tendencies, then, these are fine plays:
Total turnovers in the tournament: 414
Total fouls in the tournament: 552
Vice Presidential birthplace closest to eastern edge of runner up’s campus: Charles Fairbanks
