As I wrote the other day when filling out my NIT bracket, I’m not sure what the best way is to fill out a bracket. I think it depends on the nature of the pool you’re trying to win—the size, the fanbases represented, the payout structure. In the past, I’ve tried to take the likeliest quantity of chaos and shake it out through the bracket, meaning if the most likely number of 15 and 16-seeds to win in the first round is one, I try to find a 15 or 16-seed to pick. This year, I’m going to try going for roughly half the likeliest quantity of chaos. Basically, the idea is that while your best bet at a perfect bracket is picking all the favorites, that bracket materializing as perfect wouldn’t make it unique enough to be special beyond just being part of the year that everything went chalk, and for pool purposes, you’d find yourself in a crowded lane. So, fully conscious of the immense unlikelihood of a perfect bracket, picking this half-likely quantity of chaos, erring on the chalkier side, seems like a good way to not bore myself while still having a reasonable shot at winning the two pools I’m in (both of which are rather mediumly sized—a couple dozen entries, I believe).
First Four
These don’t count in either of the pools I’m in (and they’re now finished, as I wrote this yesterday but am publishing it this morning), but I always enjoy picking them, so I do it.
Norfolk State vs. Appalachian State
Appalachian State’s the favorite in Vegas, but KenPom likes Norfolk State. The Spartans have had to play an inconsistent lineup, but their play’s lined up pretty well with preseason expectations and they appear to be healthy. Appalachian State, meanwhile, might be lucky as much as they’re “hot.” None of their wins in the Sun Belt Tournament came by double digits, and two were in overtime. It’s possible this team didn’t “figure it out.” And even if they did, Norfolk State’s still likely better.
Pick: Norfolk State
Mount St. Mary’s vs. Texas Southern
The line here’s a lot closer to KenPom, with Mount St. Mary’s favored to win by a point or two. Neither team’s fluctuated a ton from their expectations over the course of the season. They are what they are, and what they are puts them close to a straight tossup. Texas Southern closed impressively, but so did MSM. With no quantified chaos in the First Four, the Mountaineers it is.
Pick: Mount St. Mary’s
Wichita State vs. Drake
Vegas and KenPom agree that Drake’s about a two-point favorite here. The Bulldogs have been fine without Roman Penn, and it’s hard to see Shanquan Hemphill’s return actively hurting them. Wichita State, meanwhile, may have benefited seed-wise from a Covid break sparing them chances to even out their résumé to something closer to their actual ability. They’re 75th in KenPom. That isn’t very good.
Pick: Drake
Michigan State vs. UCLA
This is a tough one. I’m biased because Michigan State hurt our bracketology model’s final performance (more on that in the coming days), but MSU is, by KenPom, the second-worst team in the field. UCLA’s coming off four straight losses, but all of those were by single digits, all were technically to tournament teams, and only the overtime loss to Oregon State was really a “bad” loss. I don’t like picking all the KenPom favorites tonight, but again, there isn’t a good way to quantify how much chaos to expect (because “chaos” isn’t really a term that’s used with regard to the First Four), I’m picking two Vegas upsets, and there’s definitely value in UCLA.
Pick: UCLA
First Round
Gonzaga vs. Norfolk State
For whatever it’s worth, the expected number of 1-seeds to win in the first round, per a quick 1,000 simulations based on KenPom, is 3.9.
Pick: Gonzaga
Oklahoma vs. Missouri
8-9 games don’t get any chaos factor. This is a De’Vion Harmon question. Oklahoma’s the better team, but they don’t have Harmon. Vegas still seems to have Oklahoma as the narrow favorite, and Evan Miya’s math says Harmon’s only Oklahoma’s fifth-best player. Seems like OU could be undervalued in a pool.
Pick: Oklahoma
Creighton vs. UC-Santa Barbara
The expected number of 5-seeds, per those simulations (all of this is per those simulations, so just assume that from here out), to win in the first round is pretty much exactly 3.0. The expected number of 6-seeds to win is roughly 2.6. The expected number of 1-4 seeds to win is 14.1. That would imply that four 1-6 seeds lose in the first round. I’ll loosely aim for three, with two of those coming from the 5-6 lines.
UCSB is a good team that slows the game down. They’re what you look for in a 12-seed, in that sense. They don’t shoot many threes, which is too bad since Creighton’s a bit weaker defending the perimeter than the paint, and their own three-point defense isn’t great, which is also a problem given Creighton’s shooting style. In the end, I just don’t buy the matchup, and I think UCSB might be a little trendy.
Pick: Creighton
Virginia vs. Ohio
Ohio is strong offensively, and one of the downsides to their defensive approach—they foul a lot—may be neutralized by Virginia’s seeming refusal to get to the free throw line.
Ohio’s strength comes more inside the arc than outside of it, numerically, which is good for the Virginia defense. I trust UVA to slow things down and score, though quarantine limiting their practice reps does have me concerned.
Pick: Virginia
USC vs. Drake
USC might be sneaky-good. 14th in KenPom, with one of the best players in the country in Evan Mobley. Drake’s fun, Drake’s solid, Drake might have lost by now so I also have to account for Wichita State…it doesn’t really matter. USC’s the best 6-seed.
Pick: USC
Kansas vs. Eastern Washington
What happens if David McCormack doesn’t play? The case for Eastern Washington is that their offense is efficient. With McCormack out, KU’s defense will be missing its best asset, and Jalen Wilson’s absence is similarly concerning.
Does that matter, though? In addition to being efficient, EWU takes shots fast. McCormack already only plays a little more than half his team’s minutes, and Bill Self has a small rotation this year. It isn’t numerically the best pick (Colgate and Abilene Christian are each more likely to take down a 3-seed in the first round), but EWU’s defensive play, while uninspiring, has few enough obvious weaknesses that if Kansas is both shorthanded and has a bad shooting night—both of which are possibilities—Eastern Washington could stun them.
This does feel easier with USC lying in wait.
Pick: Eastern Washington
Oregon vs. VCU
VCU’s defense is effectively aggressive, forcing tons of turnovers. Oregon might not be that good. But the Rams struggle to score, the Ducks protect the ball well, and on paper, Oregon’s the better team.
Pick: Oregon
Iowa vs. Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon is, per KenPom, better than Eastern Washington. But Iowa’s also a lot better than Kansas. And that’s not the test anyway.
Pick: Iowa
Michigan vs. Mount St. Mary’s
Nothing to see here.
Pick: Michigan
LSU vs. St. Bonaventure
KenPom likes the Bonnies, who play strong defense and should tear up LSU on the offensive glass.
That’s enough for me.
Pick: St. Bonaventure
Colorado vs. Georgetown
Georgetown’s run through the Big East Tournament was wild, and Colorado has some bad losses to their name.
Colorado’s also a pretty darn good team on paper, and Georgetown’s liable to be overvalued as a 12-seed with some noteworthy “momentum.”
Pick: Colorado
Florida State vs. UNC-Greensboro
Will Florida State have turnover problems? They very well might. But UNC-Greensboro’s propensity to force turnovers may be overstated by raw numbers, considering they didn’t play the most grueling of schedules. FSU has offensive heft elsewhere, too, and there are real questions about whether or not UNCG will be able to score.
Pick: Florida State
BYU vs. UCLA
BYU’s not going to be a heavy favorite here, no matter who they play, but they’re a good team that’s taken care of business the vast majority of the time. There aren’t a lot of spots where one would expect UCLA to hurt them, either.
Pick: BYU
Texas vs. Abilene Christian
Abilene Christian plays a bit like Texas Tech, which is to say they’re like an alligator that drags its prey into the mud and suffocates it. They force turnovers. They make life hell for shooters. They hit threes themselves. They move the ball well.
Kolton Kohl draws a ton of fouls, which could cause big problems for Texas’s bigs. But Texas has some depth in its options down there, and Abilene Christian’s own scoring efforts will likely be fairly futile against the Longhorns.
It could cost Texas fans a lot of sweat, but Texas should be alright in the end.
Pick: Texas
UConn vs. Maryland
It’s a cliché, but UConn’s been playing great basketball since getting James Bouknight back. Maryland kind of pales in comparison.
Pick: UConn
Alabama vs. Iona
Rick Pitino has tricks up his sleeve, and the Gaels play authentically great defense, as one would expect. But Alabama is too good.
Pick: Alabama
Baylor vs. Hartford
Not messing around here.
Pick: Baylor
North Carolina vs. Wisconsin
Can Wisconsin, who lost an obscene number of close games against good teams, get over the hump? The answer, as is so often the case against UNC, depends on whether they can protect their defensive glass.
Odds are, they can, and UNC’s weak perimeter defense will torpedo the Heels.
Pick: Wisconsin
Villanova vs. Winthrop
What Georgetown did after knocking off Villanova did a lot to ease concerns of a Villanova freefall in the wake of the Colin Gillespie injury. In hindsight, hanging with Georgetown during whatever last week was is a pretty solid result.
Still, there are concerns for the Wildcats, and Winthrop’s aggressive defense theoretically presents some problems to a team without its starting point guard.
Villanova is so good at protecting the ball, though, that the turnover thing shouldn’t actually be too terrible of a concern. And one downside of Winthrop’s pace is that the Eagles amplify the sample size over which the final result is constructed, decreasing the impact of randomness.
It should, like so many of these, be a bit scary, but Villanova should be composed enough to get through it.
Pick: Villanova
Purdue vs. North Texas
North Texas managed to play a grinder of a schedule and is better than half the tournament’s 12-seeds. But Purdue is quietly one of the best teams in the country, as we saw glimpses of in their near-takedown of Ohio State on Friday.
North Texas may force turnovers, and they’ll slow things down, and their offense is rather efficient when they protect the ball, which is something Purdue should allow them to do. In other words, it’s kind of a terrible matchup for Purdue. Looking ahead, it seems if I do want three teams from the 11-16 lines to win in the first round, I’ll need two of UNT/Utah State/Oregon State/Syracuse/Liberty. I don’t love the other four. Let’s give North Texas a shot.
Pick: North Texas
Texas Tech vs. Utah State
Risky one for Texas Tech. Utah State rebounds well, doesn’t foul too often, and defends the paint admirably.
Utah State does not, however, protect the ball very well.
Can Texas Tech muscle out a win? I’d guess so. But I have my doubts, and if I’m going to take one more 11-14 seed in the first round, it’s these guys or Syracuse.
Pick: Utah State
Arkansas vs. Colgate
Colgate’s a bit of a mystery, with dominant offensive numbers against just three regular season opponents, and five opponents in total. They’ve yet to play anyone better than Army. Arkansas is a lot better than Army.
Pick: Arkansas
Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Mike White is not getting enough credit for keeping Florida competitive in the wake of the Keyontae Johnson scare (not to mention while having to play without Keyontae Johnson). Virginia Tech’s fine, but Covid likely saved them more losses than it cost them wins (to be clear on this and a similar previous comment—yes, duh, it would be better for them to not have gotten Covid; just saying that their résumé might look better than it is).
Pick: Florida
Ohio State vs. Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts does shoot very well from deep, which could burn the Buckeyes, but that’s a lot of faith to place in Oral Roberts.
Pick: Ohio State
Illinois vs. Drexel
Nope.
Pick: Illinois
Loyola vs. Georgia Tech
There’s some skepticism around KenPom relative to prior years, with even Ken Pomeroy himself saying that the system could use more cross-conference games to lock in its data. But with Moses Wright out and Loyola in KenPom’s top ten, fading KenPom here would be overthinking it.
Pick: Loyola
Tennessee vs. Oregon State
Oregon State’s a whole lot of fun, but Tennessee’s a solid team, underwhelming as they’ve been at times. Could the Beavers do it? Of course. But they’re likely overvalued by virtue of how they got here (and they’re probably a little overseeded).
Pick: Tennessee
Oklahoma State vs. Liberty
Liberty checks some boxes: Slow tempo. Good shooters. Good defensive rebounders. Few turnovers. They play the possession game well.
But Oklahoma State’s strength is its defense, and the Pokes are going to have a massive advantage in raw athleticism. Look for them to make Liberty run a bit.
Pick: Oklahoma State
San Diego State vs. Syracuse
Buddy Boeheim and Alan Griffin might torch the Aztecs. The Aztecs might torch them right back. San Diego State has fine turnover numbers and rather good shooting numbers. Their perimeter defense isn’t all that good, but their defense overall is great. Syracuse is always scary, but San Diego State should be ok.
Pick: San Diego State
West Virginia vs. Morehead State
West Virginia has its issues.
Morehead State has more.
Pick: West Virginia
Clemson vs. Rutgers
Is the Big Ten overvalued by KenPom? Again, maybe. But maybe not, and Rutgers does, in a this-isn’t-actually-how-probability-works-but-it’s-how-this-weird-quantitative-chaos-method-I-use-works, give me another double-digit seed to play with in the second round.
Pick: Rutgers
Houston vs. Cleveland State
Not happening.
Pick: Houston
Second Round
Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma
Remember those 1,000 quick simulations? In those, Houston is the second most-likely team to reach the Sweet Sixteen, getting there 75% of the time.
Gonzaga makes it in 92% of simulations.
Pick: Gonzaga
Virginia vs. Creighton
On the one hand, I don’t really trust Creighton.
On the other, Virginia might not have practiced all week.
If they do get past Ohio, they’re more likely to be fine, but getting past Ohio’s a serious-enough question mark to take their opponent here, even if their opponent would be a slim underdog.
Pick: Creighton
USC vs. Eastern Washington
For what it’s worth, the expected number of double-digit seeds in the Sweet Sixteen is something like 1.9.
I do not expect Eastern Washington to be one of them.
Pick: USC
Iowa vs. Oregon
The expected number of 1-seeds and 2-seeds to make the Sweet Sixteen is only 5.8. I’m not going to push it that far, but it does seem like picking one of those to lose would be a good call. Gonzaga’s out of the question. St. Bonaventure, Florida, and Rutgers are uninspiring. Loyola, Wisconsin, and UConn are all intriguing. Oregon falls more in the former camp than the latter.
Pick: Iowa
Michigan vs. St. Bonaventure
As was said: St. Bonaventure’s uninspiring here.
Pick: Michigan
Florida State vs. Colorado
This is a tossup, but I’ll take McKinley Wright over Scottie Barnes.
Pick: Colorado
Texas vs. BYU
BYU might be the narrow favorite if this matchup comes to pass, but the Cougars have a tougher road here, and they don’t hit Texas in the weak spots: They don’t draw fouls. They don’t crash the glass aggressively. They don’t force turnovers.
Pick: Texas
Alabama vs. UConn
Alabama is the most likely top-2 seed to lose in the first weekend, and that’s partially because UConn is good. But Josh Primo’s importance might be a bit overstated, he might be back anyway, and the Alabama defense is going to be tougher than anything James Bouknight’s seen.
Pick: Alabama
Baylor vs. Wisconsin
It’s Loyola or Wisconsin for me, KenPom cultist that I am. They’re comparable on paper, as are Illinois and Baylor. Wisconsin, at times this year, was supposed to be a top-five team, so they have the talent. Loyola, though, has the results.
Wisconsin’s struggles seem flukier. I’m not buying that they can’t win close games. And Illinois, for whatever it’s worth, does grade out better than Baylor.
Pick: Wisconsin
Villanova vs. North Texas
As I said in the USC/EWU blurb, the expected number of double-digit seeds in the Sweet Sixteen is 1.9. I’m not going to pick two this year, but I am going to pick one.
It’s much more likely to be Utah State. The Aggies are something like 15% likely to make it that far. North Texas is only something like 7% likely.
But with Gillespie out, the questions about Villanova are real, and Villanova, like Purdue, doesn’t force many turnovers, which could be a saving grace for the Mean Green.
The odds are long. But there’s some value.
Pick: North Texas
Arkansas vs. Utah State
The number of times we’ll get clips of the 2019 Nevada/Utah State attempted locker room invasion if this happens…
Eric Musselman was at Nevada at the time. Craig Smith had just started at Utah State. Both teams were good. Neither liked each other.
This year’s Utah State is stronger defensively than that year’s Utah State by leaps and bounds, but the offensive tendencies are similar: Strong ball movement. Strong offensive rebounding.
Arkansas should have enough inside to get past them, but it could get really interesting, and no matter who plays who in this game, it should be a thrill.
Unless it’s Texas Tech/Colgate.
It feels like Texas Tech would floss with Colgate’s ligaments.
Pick: Arkansas
Ohio State vs. Florida
Where’s Joakim Noah when you need him?
Pick: Ohio State
Illinois vs. Loyola
I’ve talked about this a couple times now: Illinois has a lot to be nervous about here. But there are reasons to doubt Loyola as well, starting with the fact that their best non-conference win came against North Texas. We like North Texas, but Loyola couldn’t top Richmond in December, and Wisconsin handled them with some ease.
Did the Ramblers get better since then? Absolutely. And they should give Illinois a ton of problems. But Illinois is at a talent level that offers some comfort here and makes it too risky to pick against them (there are also a lot of Illinois fans in both my pools, Midwesterner that I am).
Pick: Illinois
Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Man. Really seems to come down to John Fulkerson. Which is rare, because usually teams aren’t close enough for a single injury to actually make the difference on paper. Tennessee’s the better team with him, by maybe two points, but without him?
Even without Fulkerson, it feels like there might be some overvaluing of Oklahoma State going on. The Pokes’ Big 12 Tournament run was impressive, but the Big 12 might not be as good as we thought (though contrarily, it’s possible the timing of the Big 12/SEC challenge and the Big 12’s coronavirus bouts dampened the league as a whole in KenPom). Either way, the winner should be an underdog in the Sweet Sixteen, so flip a coin.
Pick: Tennessee
West Virginia vs. San Diego State
What to make of either of these teams? As was just mentioned regarding Oklahoma State, it’s hard to get a read on the Big 12. But San Diego State, prior to the Mountain West Championship Game, had only one win over an NCAA Tournament at-large. With San Diego State a poorer seed and the better team in KenPom’s eyes, I’ll take them, but I don’t feel great about it.
Pick: San Diego State
Houston vs. Rutgers
Rutgers could compete with Houston.
But it’s unlikely that they will.
Pick: Houston
Sweet Sixteen
Gonzaga vs. Creighton
In those 1,000 simulations, Gonzaga makes the Elite Eight 77% of the time.
Pick: Gonzaga
Iowa vs. USC
Also in those 1,000 simulations, the expected number of 1 and 2-seeds to make the Elite Eight is 4.2. Which means I’m probably going with five or six.
Of the non-Wisconsin/North Texas options, USC is the best team left in my bracket (again, by KenPom). Maybe I’m putting too much faith in Evan Mobley against Luka Garza, but I like this for USC. Iowa might light them up from three, but USC should get second chances galore.
Pick: USC
Michigan vs. Colorado
In the other half of the Big Ten/Pac-12 challenge, I don’t trust Colorado, and that’s for two reasons. First, Michigan’s very good, rough finish and all. Second, I was very torn between Florida State and Colorado in the first place.
Colorado might make Michigan pay for its poor three-point defense, but Colorado runs through McKinley Wright, and threes aren’t a huge part of Wright’s game.
Pick: Michigan
Alabama vs. Texas
Indirectly, Texas beat Alabama in Maui/Asheville. How things have changed.
Alabama does force turnovers, but more importantly, Alabama locks down the perimeter, which means Texas is going to have to penetrate or score in the post, and while it can do both those things, it has that tendency towards hero-ball in a crunch that seems destined to bite it at some point.
The Tide might not roll, but they’re more than 50% likely to advance through to the Elite Eight (per the simulations).
Pick: Alabama
Wisconsin vs. North Texas
The expected number of double-digit seeds to reach the Elite Eight is only 0.7. That implies it’s more likely than not at least one will make it, but North Texas is less than one percent likely to be that team. Wisconsin only makes it in 11% of simulations, but that isn’t terrible overall as one flyer to take.
Pick: Wisconsin
Ohio State vs. Arkansas
Unless there’s some really obscene Big Ten inflation going on in KenPom, Ohio State is notably better than Arkansas. The Buckeye weakness is on the defensive end, but Arkansas’s strength is defense, so they don’t even have the matchup going for them.
Pick: Ohio State
Illinois vs. Tennessee
For as uneasy as I feel about Illinois’s path, Tennessee’s is much worse, especially considering they could have to play Loyola here. Illinois is the safe play, and a good one.
Pick: Illinois
Houston vs. San Diego State
Two strong defenses. On the offensive end, though, Houston’s got a big edge.
Pick: Houston
Elite Eight
Gonzaga vs. USC
Gonzaga is dominant enough that its likelihood of winning four straight games to open a tournament designed to crown college basketball’s champion is well north of 50%. It’s 58% or so. The next closest is Michigan, at 36%.
Pick: Gonzaga
Michigan vs. Alabama
Nate Oats making the Final Four would be awesome, and it’s not terribly unlikely. Somewhere in the 18% range. But Michigan’s in the 36% range, and there isn’t a matchup here that seems like it would obviously play into Alabama’s hands (I’m skeptical on the importance of matchups, but they’re easy to talk about when looking to justify picks). Michigan’s a pretty good value play overall.
Pick: Michigan
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
The bet against Baylor was a big value risk. Baylor’s 35% likely to make the Final Four. Ohio State, on the other hand, is only 21% likely. And Wisconsin—who, granted, has some skepticism on their KenPom ranking—is actually the 21st-likeliest Final Four participant, or somewhere in that range. They’re in a block with Texas Tech and West Virginia. They aren’t far behind 3-seed Texas. It’s only 5.5% (or thereabouts), but that’s not the worst spot to take a shot, especially when any non-Baylor team from this region would be a Final Four underdog. I’ll take Wisconsin to get the monkey off their back.
Pick: Wisconsin
Illinois vs. Houston
The expected number of 1-seeds to make the Final Four is 1.6, and while I told myself I’d err on the side of chalk, taking two 1-seeds (and three 1 or 2-seeds) is still erring on the side of chalk, even if only mildly—less so than I originally intended.
The thing here is that Houston, for the third straight tournament, is undervalued, and I, for the third straight tournament, can’t quit picking them to make the Final Four. In 2018, it was the Jordan Poole buzzer beater that did me in. In 2019, it was a four-point loss to Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen. Will it work out this year? The simulations say there’s about a 31% chance it does, making Houston the fifth-likeliest team to make the semifinals (Illinois is at 35%).
Matchup-wise, Houston is going to send Illinois to the line, but Illinois will need to hit them, and Houston does display a tendency to foul the right guys. Whether that’s luck or something else is a good question, but for whatever it’s worth, Kofi Cockburn is a 54% free throw shooter so far this year.
Beyond that, Illinois might struggle with turnovers, Illinois should have a lot of trouble finding good shots, Houston will likely struggle on the defensive glass, Illinois should be able to hold Houston off on their own defensive boards.
If it comes to pass, it’ll be a good game. Houston will be an underdog. But I think there’d be value in them.
Pick: Houston
Final Four
Gonzaga vs. Michigan
Probabilities of winning a Final Four game (rough):
Gonzaga: 43%
Illinois: 21%
Baylor: 21%
Michigan: 19%
Houston: 18%
Iowa: 12%
Ohio State: 10%
Alabama: 6%
Loyola: 4%
Villanova: 4%
Arkansas: 4%
I included those last three to give an idea of how unlikely it is anyone gets past Gonzaga. If Alabama’s only 6% likely to make the title game, then even with Gonzaga not favored over the field on their half of the bracket, Gonzaga’s a pretty obvious play. Big upside to not taking them, but you don’t get points for other people being wrong. You have to find the right team to beat them. And while Michigan would be as good a choice as anyone, and may be undervalued, that’s too bold a take for something that could end up being kind of a common anti-Gonzaga play.
Pick: Gonzaga
Houston vs. Wisconsin
And in the weird one…Wisconsin’s only 2% likely to make the title game. So by taking Houston, it feels like I’m giving myself better than a one-in-six chance of finishing in the money in my pools, given that:
- If Gonzaga wins over Houston, I’m likely to win, because I’ll likely be the only one picking that exact thing to happen.
- If Houston wins, I’m still probably safe, because I doubt anyone in my pools will pick Houston to win.
- If Houston loses to someone that isn’t Gonzaga, it’s hard to see more than one person beating me in pools of a couple dozen people.
Pick: Houston
National Championship
Gonzaga vs. Houston
Anticlimax. Unless you want straight dominance, end-to-end. Because that’s what it feels like we’re going to get. Championship probabilities from those simulations:
Gonzaga: 29%
Michigan: 11%
Baylor: 11%
Illinois: 9%
Houston: 8%
Iowa: 7%
Ohio State: 4%
Alabama: 3%
For the final score (since I’m in ESPN pools and that’s their tiebreaker), KenPom would have Gonzaga as roughly a six-point favorite, I think, and I think the tempo would come out to something like 70 possessions, so let’s say 79-73.
We’ll see.
