We shared our NIT probabilities last night. I think they’re helpful. I don’t think it’s a great strategy in a big pool to pick straight favorites—differentiation helps—and this one is big, so that’s not how they’re helpful. Rather, I think they’re helpful for 1) highlighting who has a good path and 2) indicating how much chaos to expect.
The expected number of NIT first round upsets is five. Only two 1-seeds should be expected to reach the quarterfinals. Only one 1-seed should be expected to make the Final Four. Wake Forest is the favorite on paper. Based on all of that:
Seton Hall Region
- Seton Hall over Saint Joe’s
- LSU over North Texas
- Boston College over Providence
- Princeton over UNLV
- Seton Hall over LSU
- Princeton over Boston College
- Seton Hall over Princeton
Seton Hall has a great path those first two rounds. That creates value. Providence is reportedly not playing the full lineup tonight. That indicates a certain NIT approach in addition to mattering for availability.
Wake Forest Region
- Wake Forest over Appalachian State
- Xavier over Georgia
- Richmond over Virginia Tech
- Ohio State over Cornell
- Wake Forest over Xavier
- Ohio State over Richmond
- Wake Forest over Ohio State
Wake Forest is the best team in this, per kenpom. Again, I think that’s helpful. I don’t like picking teams to win two road games in a row. It’s common across the board, but it’s hard to ride on that from one individual team. I will do it only sparingly.
Indiana State Region
- Indiana State over SMU
- Minnesota over Butler
- Bradley over Loyola
- Cincinnati over San Francisco
- Indiana State over Minnesota
- Cincinnati over Bradley
- Indiana State over Cincinnati
I went with the full five first-round upsets, but from there I let it get mostly chalky. Three 1-seeds to the Final Four is a lot. It’s unrealistic. But between Seton Hall’s path, Wake Forest’s favoritehood, and Indiana State being so popular that there isn’t much downside to to “try to pick them to lose one round earlier than everybody else,” it’s the approach for me this year.
Villanova Region
- Villanova over VCU
- UCF over South Florida
- Kansas State over Iowa
- Utah over UC Irvine
- UCF over Villanova
- Kansas State over Utah
- UCF over Kansas State
I’m worried about that approach piece with Villanova as well. I think UCF has a lot to play for. I’ll also let my Big 12 loyalties shine through here. It’s the best conference. Let’s let it make some noise.
Final Four
- Wake Forest over Seton Hall
- UCF over Indiana State
- Wake Forest over UCF
UCF is only the 14th-likeliest team to make the championship, but 1-in-20 isn’t too bad, and with Wake Forest the favorite, as I keep saying, I think that makes this matchup original enough and probable enough to be valuable enough. The nice thing about the NIT is that even more so than with the NCAA Tournament, this can all be in shreds in a few hours. The first round happens so fast.
For the tiebreaker, I’m picking Ibrahima Diallo to lead the NIT in rebounds. If I’m tied with someone and it’s relevant, I’m assuming they’ll also have picked Wake over UCF in the title game, given how big this thing has gotten. I’m therefore assuming they’ll take Efton Reid. Give me someone from the other team playing five games.
For the Record
In case I pick a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket when I get to it by Thursday morning, I would like these First Four picks somewhere for posterity:
- Howard over Wagner
- Virginia over Colorado State
- Montana State over Grambling State
- Colorado over Boise State
