I do not have a perfect bracket this year, marking the 30th year of my life with no perfection (though I don’t think I filled one out prior to 2003). I listed my First Four picks with my NIT bracket, and I got three of the four wrong.
So, pressure’s off, and I will look quite humble when they come to me after these next 63 picks all wind up correct and I say, “Oh, no. No, I did not have a perfect bracket this year. I had Howard beating Wagner.”
First Round
UConn over Stetson
Stetson is a good shooting team in what is presumably a poor defensive league.
Florida Atlantic over Northwestern
I don’t like this FAU team very much, and I like this Northwestern team a lot, but I think Matthew Nicholson’s injury is going to make it very hard for Northwestern to counter Vladislav Goldin crashing the boards.
San Diego State over UAB
UAB’s a scary one for San Diego State because Andy Kennedy knows what he’s doing, but this feels more like one to file away in the back of the head and less like one where the move’s to actively pick against SDSU. SDSU might go down, but we can weight that a little in next round’s call.
Auburn over Yale
I’m not a big fan of this version of Yale. They’re a fine, clean team, but they’ve been upset more than they’ve done the upsetting, and Auburn basketball doesn’t get as much attention as its recent success probably warrants.
BYU over Duquesne
The early slot and being a team from altitude are red flags on BYU. As with San Diego State, though, we’ll just file those away.
Illinois over Morehead State
Could I see Morehead upsetting Illinois? Sure. I could see almost all of these upsets happening. I think Morehead’s an intriguing team. But yet again, I don’t really believe in them, and I don’t doubt Illinois to the extent necessary to make that move either.
Washington State over Drake
Washington State is a narrow favorite here, but Drake seems really popular. That’s a nice opportunity to pick up a point.
Iowa State over South Dakota State
Of course I’m scared of TJ Otzelberger’s old team playing my favorite team. South Dakota State, as always, can shoot. But we’re sticking with chalk in the First Round in the East. The Cyclones were great at beating low-majors this year. So good that it got a lot of people upset about the NET rankings.
North Carolina over Wagner
If it was UNC, the worst 1-seed, playing Longwood, the best 16-seed, I would give it a glance.
Michigan State over Mississippi State
I’m not a huge believer in Tom Izzo being a spectacular March coach, especially these days, but I think this MSU team is chronically undervalued. It’s probably popular, but I think they’re going to win.
Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s
Grand Canyon lines up right behind South Carolina and Drake in kenpom. They’re the best team seeded 11th or higher. Saint Mary’s excels at rebounding and protecting the interior, and the rebounding thing’s a big deal, but Grand Canyon’s more than just glass-crashing. Also? Saint Mary’s strong numbers down there might have something to do with playing in the WCC. Raw numbers are less trustworthy with Saint Mary’s than adjusted numbers.
Alabama over College of Charleston
I wanted to find an angle to pick against Alabama here, because they’ve been playing so poorly, but I didn’t find it. Charleston is a pretty different team from last year. Had some turnover. Not quite as good.
New Mexico over Clemson
I alluded to this above, but I’m into the anti-altitude theory—Three Man Weave has talked about it a lot, but it’s basically the idea that something gets out of whack with kenpom with these Mountain West teams, and that it’s stemming from the impact of altitude on regular season games, which is why San Diego State isn’t overseeded in March—but I also think it’s valuable to know which 11-seed is favored over which 6-seed in a big fun pool setting. If it was all against sharps, the value situation would be different, but as much as I don’t love the Lobos here, it’s generally a good call to take favorites.
Baylor over Colgate
I’m fairly anti-Colgate. They could do it, sure, anyone could do it. But it would almost be a shame to have it be this team and not one of their better ones.
Dayton over Nevada
Anti-altitude. Even in a game being played at altitude. (It’s not about the altitude, it’s about oddities with against-the-spread betting involving these teams. Anyway, Dayton’s slightly better on paper.)
Arizona over Long Beach State
Long Beach State likes to run? Allegedly? They weren’t running all that much in the Big West Tournament. Just made a lot of three throws against UC Irvine. But if they are who their profile says they are, they’re playing right into Arizona’s hand.
Houston over Longwood
I’ll admit to have given this a long look, but I respect Kelvin Sampson too much. Houston’s been solid in March lately too. They’ve never lost in the first round with Sampson. Sampson hasn’t lost in the first round with Sampson since 2008 at Indiana.
Nebraska over Texas A&M
As far as 8/9 games go, Nebraska’s a pretty big favorite here. Buzz Williams’s teams are always scary, but the results aren’t necessarily present.
Wisconsin over James Madison
There’s a narrative around Wisconsin which says they’ve fallen apart, and it was truer a few weeks ago. JMU’s good, but Wisconsin’s better by enough to create value.
Duke over Vermont
Vermont, like Colgate, feels like they should’ve won one by now if they were going to. It’s a little like Texas Southern.
Texas Tech over NC State
I like the Grant McCasland angle here. I think he can probably outmaneuver Kevin Keatts. Don’t love it, though.
Oakland over Kentucky
Alright, my lone 14/15/16-seed advancing through the first round.
Our probabilities say 1.5 teams on the first four seed lines should go down. That’s not all that high a number. It leaves me pretty comfortable only taking one upset in those games. Why I like Kentucky to lose is that 1) Oakland’s played quality competition and did win at Xavier, which is easy to undervalue and at least leaves them credible, 2) I think the early exits are in John Calipari’s head, that he’ll be thinking about them, and 3) that Calipari’s already been coaching in a way that doesn’t make a ton of sense. Why is Reed Sheppard not being asked to do more in a more consistent way? I don’t trust Cal right now, and I don’t think Kentucky’s as good as their seed, and they’ve gotten a ton of shine because when they’re good, they’re fun, and it’s been a while since they’ve gone deep in this thing.
Colorado over Florida
Colorado might be favored here when the game shows up. I like Todd Golden, and I like this Florida team just fine, but Colorado is a super talented team.
Marquette over Western Kentucky
As with LBSU, I think WKU’s game plays into Marquette’s hands here, even if I doubt Tyler Kolek can be sustainably effective with the oblique injury.
Purdue over Grambling State
There’s nothing we’re seeing here, and someone else in our pool will probably pick it as a joke.
TCU over Utah State
TCU’s a good deal better than Utah State. And that’s without thinking about altitude!
Gonzaga over McNeese
McNeese is good, especially by McNeese standards, but Gonzaga’s deal for most of the year has been successfully beating decent and bad teams while falling short of the best teams. We’ll take Mark Few.
Kansas over Samford
I don’t trust Kansas, and Samford checks out well in raw numbers, but the height thing gives me pause. I think Hunter Dickinson will make it work.
South Carolina over Oregon
I hate this game, I would love to pick against South Carolina because of how close the line is, and I’m not doing it because I think people overly associate Oregon with March runs. Two times. That’s all it was. And now this.
Creighton over Akron
Akron’s fairly tempting, as Creighton seems vulnerable, but I don’t think Akron’s actually good enough and I don’t think Creighton’s actually necessarily that vulnerable.
Texas over Colorado State
I like this Texas team well enough to see them winning this. Altitude, and whatnot.
Tennessee over Saint Peter’s
Gave this an admittedly long look. I don’t really trust Dalton Knecht, and I think Saint Peter’s defense is real. But I do trust Zakai Zeigler, and this is just too long a longshot to make much sense. The benefit isn’t big enough.
Second Round
UConn over FAU
I wanted this one a little, but it’s hard to see it. UConn’s been great at taking care of lesser teams, and FAU’s a lesser team.
Auburn over San Diego State
We tucked away that thought about UAB, and it makes this even easier. We like using kenpom to make us feel good about a favorite, too. Treating it as, “Yes, this team’s really good,” feels better than treating it as, “Actually, this team’s really good.” We feel more comfortable when it aligns with our prior or tells us that something we know is likely is even likelier.
Illinois over BYU
We really don’t like BYU’s situation with the early game in the first round, given their natural time zone, and while they handled it well in the Big 12 Tournament, we also think the thought about Illinois not making the Sweet Sixteen in so long is more coincidence than anything real.
Iowa State over Washington State
Good draw for the Cyclones. Love Washington State, and they did beat Arizona who we like a lot, but Iowa State’s done a great job against teams like this one. That’s how you get to the top of a league like the Big 12.
UNC over Michigan State
We think too many people will ride Izzo to make it worthwhile, even if the line will be only three points or so.
Grand Canyon over Alabama
Here’s where we take our Nate Oats shot. Playing real bad lately. Grand Canyon’s good enough to justify this kind of thing.
Baylor over New Mexico
Having cashed in our advantage of knowing New Mexico’s good, we now cash out with the altitude thing. That’s the theory, anyway.
Arizona over Dayton
Dayton has a good path here, but we like Arizona too much to focus on it. Also, we think Dayton’s thinness makes them hard to ride for long. Need one more guy to feel secure.
Houston over Nebraska
Nebraska’s shooting is intriguing, but Houston’s issue is more the offense suddenly disappearing than the defense not working. We have no reason to believe Nebraska will do something different than what the Big 12 did against these guys.
Duke over Wisconsin
As with Gonzaga, we think Duke’s good enough to beat everybody worse than them and not many teams better than them.
Texas Tech over Oakland
We’re not riding a team we don’t believe in. We believed in Kentucky to lose. That’s done.
Colorado over Marquette
We do believe in Colorado, though the altitude gives us pause. We’re really worried about the Kolek thing. If we’re right, it sure stinks for Marquette.
Purdue over TCU
We don’t like TCU much. We really like this Purdue team.
Gonzaga over Kansas
Just one, KU. Gonzaga should be able to hold you at bay.
Creighton over South Carolina
The Jays will be a big favorite if this comes to pass.
Tennessee over Texas
Texas just doesn’t have that extra gear, or if they do, we haven’t seen it. Also, you might not want Brock Cunningham playing his Brock Cunningham game against a team that has been more purposeful Brock Cunninghams in their past. Rick Barnes wins the revenge game.
Sweet Sixteen
UConn over Auburn
We hate UConn’s path, we’re encouraged about Auburn, and it gives us pause that the Big East is performing so badly in the NIT. That Conference USA thing from last year has us wondering about team rankings missing in the same direction within conferences. Still, we don’t trust Auburn to beat one of the best teams in the country. We just don’t.
Iowa State over Illinois
This was the only one I crossed out while going through. I wrote Illinois down and felt some disgust with myself.
I don’t like that Illinois has guys who can get buckets when necessary and Iowa State doesn’t, but I also know Illinois does not play a shred of defense. Eventually, that should catch up to them.
Grand Canyon over UNC
Here it is. I think Grand Canyon’s the kind of team who can frustrate UNC. Even RJ Davis, the rock, is frustratable. If Grand Canyon’s getting calls—and they generally get lots of calls, because they create lots of contact—look out. This UNC team has been too content to play to the level of its competition.
Arizona over Baylor
Better team wins, and the game being in LA doesn’t hurt.
Houston over Duke
I’ve seen this movie before. It looks a lot like 2023’s Duke vs. Tennessee.
Colorado over Texas Tech
Colorado is ranked ahead of Texas Tech by one spot in kenpom right now. That’s not the only reason to make the choice, but I think it points towards a situation where they might be slept on, and the Kolek oblique piece of the story makes this too tempting to pass up. Especially without a lot of faith in Texas Tech, who’s banged up and might be playing Kentucky in the second round, not Oakland.
Purdue over Gonzaga
Nothing needs to have changed since Maui.
Tennessee over Creighton
This was part of what I was looking at with Tennessee when I wanted them gone against Saint Peter’s. I think Creighton’s going to be popular. They’re fun, and because they almost made the Final Four last year, they’re in the perfect spot of not being a team thought of as always losing while still being a team people would like to see break through. Tennessee is not likable at all. Which makes me like the pick.
Elite Eight
Iowa State over UConn
I just don’t think UConn’s good enough to be worth the odds they’re getting. And I do think Iowa State’s capable of beating great teams. So, why not pick your favorite team?
Arizona over Grand Canyon
We’re not crazy (and we like this Arizona team a lot).
Houston over Colorado
We’re not crazy (and I think we like Houston’s path).
Purdue over Tennessee
Maui, Round 2.
Final Four
Arizona over Iowa State
We think Arizona could also beat UConn, for what it’s worth. Arizona is the team we’re riding on this half of the bracket. We think they’re good enough and slept on enough to be valuable in a bracket pool, so we’re taking the Cats. End of the line for our Cyclones.
Purdue over Houston
If this is the exact matchup, we’ll be very nervous about the Boilermakers, but Lance Jones and Zach Edey are both capable of roughing it up, and Houston feels like a non-starter national title pick without Joseph Tugler. He was a role player, but he thins them that much more. Boiler up.
Championship
Purdue over Arizona
And in this, we go with Purdue. With the Tugler injury, we do think it’s kind of binary between Purdue and UConn. With a lot of people thinking it’s UConn and UConn alone, that makes this the value play.
