Good afternoon.
First of all, please join our NIT Bracket Challenge if you’re interested. Submissions are due before tipoff of the first game, which is at 7:00 PM EDT.
Secondly, here’s how I like to go about these picks:
I try to pick roughly half of the probable chaos, meaning I look at the likeliest number of seed-line upsets in different categories and try, more or less, to divide it by two in my bracket. For example: In the first round of the NIT, KenPom probabilities indicate seeded teams should go 11–5. I’ll pick either 13 or 14 of them to win. I don’t think this is necessarily the best strategic play, but it’s what I enjoy most, so I do it.
Thirdly, I did finish as the highest-finishing “celebrity” in last year’s NIT Bracket Challenge, getting three of the four Final Four teams correct (I had Oklahoma beating Texas A&M in the championship). So, I have a reputation to defend on that front.
The picks:
NIT
First Round
The only two teams I’d be shocked to see lose in the first round are Clemson and North Texas. This isn’t because North Texas or Clemson is particularly good, though each is a fine basketball team. Their opponents are just the two worst teams in the field. A good first-round draw matters greatly in the NIT, where they can be hard to come by, especially in this new era where half the teams are unseeded.
Santa Clara is a KenPom favorite at home against Sam Houston State, and I do think the Broncos will get it done. Better guard play makes me more confident in them, though Sam Houston State’s a terrifying team to play because they sow so much chaos.
I was surprised to see Washington State such a big favorite over Eastern Washington in KenPom (80%, third-biggest first round favorite in the field), and that makes me think others would be surprised as well, making the Cougars potentially a value play? Eastern Washington has shooters, but then again, so do the Cougs.
Similarly, I was surprised Oklahoma State wasn’t favored by more against Youngstown State, even on the road. I’ll ride my surprise and take the Penguins to eliminate the second-best team in the field.
I don’t see either of Oregon or Rutgers losing in the first round. I could see it, because I respect Irvine and Hofstra, but I don’t see it. Rutgers seems like a team which shows up every night. Oregon has played well in recent NIT first round games.
Virginia Tech is worse than people seem to realize, so I’m taking Cincinnati in that game. Virginia Tech’s shooters just aren’t making shots.
Back to the surprise angle, I’m surprised Michigan isn’t favored by more over Toledo, but at the same time I think Michigan’s probably coming into this somewhat ready to play. I’ll take them, but I don’t love it.
Getting another two out of the way: New Mexico is a rather hearty favorite, and Colorado is playing a very late home game against a team from sea level.
Five remain.
In one, UAB’s pretty healthily favored, and Southern Miss has taken a weird downturn lately. I haven’t followed closely enough to know what’s going on there, but it makes me like the Blazers.
Four remain. I’m still looking for one more seed-line upsets, and I don’t like that I’m doing this by default. I might have to do zero instead.
Villanova should be a popular pick, and there’s a reason for that, but I don’t like the injury rumblings. I can’t do it. I’ll take Liberty there.
I don’t have a ton of faith in UCF, but I do think they’re volatile, and while I kind of like Florida, maybe that can help. Put a pin in that one.
I think Wisconsin is talented, and I’m not sure Bradley really is, and I think it’ll help the Badgers to play at home. I’ll take Wisconsin.
I do think Yale is better than Vanderbilt on a neutral court, so even as a deserving underdog, I don’t mind taking them to win on the road. I’ll take them, and I won’t take UCF.
First Round picks, in bracket order: Youngstown State, Washington State, North Texas, Santa Clara, Oregon, UCF, Florida, Liberty, Rutgers, Cincinnati, New Mexico, Colorado, Clemson, UAB, Yale, Michigan
Second Round
For this one, I don’t have a few pieces of relevant information: First, I don’t have any comprehensive simulations or probabilities to show how many unseeded teams will make rounds beyond the second round. I’m kind of gaming this out as I go. Second, I don’t know if there are any scheduling conflicts which could stop certain home games from happening. I think Wisconsin may have one, but I’m not positive on that.
My best impression, from estimating to fill that first gap, is that one or two is the likeliest number of unseeded teams to make the regional finals, and that four is probably the likeliest number of 1-seeds and 2-seeds. That leaves a lot up to interpretation, but I’ll aim for one unseeded team and only five 1-seeds and 2-seeds, and see whether that makes sense.
First, I’m putting Washington State into the quarterfinals. I don’t think Youngstown State is good enough to win two NIT games, especially if they’re flying all the way to Pullman for one of them.
Second, I’m taking Liberty, just in case the game’s at Liberty. That feels rather likely, with the Wisconsin high school tournament in Madison, and even if Wisconsin does host, Liberty is clearly a better team right now than the Badgers, so they’d have a good chance.
This puts me in a fine position to hit my targets. I think Michigan could handle Yale pretty straightforwardly—potentially a better matchup than Toledo, even if it’s a tougher opponent—and I think Jelly Walker is overestimated by sports gamblers, which will probably make him really overestimated by the bracketing public, which is even more into storylines. So, Michigan and Clemson are through.
I’ll take Santa Clara, my lone remaining unseeded team, to make the quarterfinals. I like North Texas, but they make themselves susceptible to upsets in either direction with their pace. It’s not as helpful when you’re the better team.
I’ll take Rutgers over Cincinnati, in the mold of a better team starting to get its NIT legs in the second round. I’ll take New Mexico over Colorado—Colorado is probably at least a little worse than their KenPom rating right now thanks to KJ Simpson’s absence, and KenPom has the Lobos better as it is.
This leaves me picking Florida to win in Oregon, which I like, because I think Todd Golden is a very good coach who’s going to be willing to try a lot of things in a tournament like the NIT, and I don’t know how well Oregon will prepare for that. The right side of my bracket is quarterfinal chalk, but the left is a little more busy.
Second Round picks, in bracket order: Washington State, Santa Clara, Florida, Liberty, Rutgers, New Mexico, Clemson, Michigan
Quarterfinals
I’m even less equipped now to estimate chaos, but that’s a little out the window at this point in the game. I’ve got a 1-seed playing a 2-seed in each of the right-hand regions, and I’ve got a 4-seed hosting an unseeded team in the top left while another 4-seed visits a 3-seed. I will get a fun enough Final Four. I’m going to pick by matchup here, and I like Washington State a lot (they’d be the biggest favorite if these specific matchups were played today), I like Florida but I think Liberty’s too good, I think Rutgers should handle New Mexico if Rutgers is playing to its capabilities (and by this point I think they should be, injuries and all), and I think Michigan should and will be an underdog—and that there’s potential value on Clemson—but that Clemson’s too up-and-down to string good games together in this magnitude.
Quarterfinal picks, in bracket order: Washington State, Liberty, Rutgers, Michigan
Final Four
Again, at this point it’s just on. It’s just basketball. The chaos stuff came earlier. Individual matchups, then:
Liberty would be a small favorite over Washington State were the game played today, but I have more questions about Liberty’s consistency than I do about Washington State’s, and Liberty would have to travel a decently long way to get to Las Vegas. On the other side, Rutgers is just the better team, and I trust that defense to make plays in Las Vegas. They’ve held Michigan under 60 twice in the last few weeks. I like them to do it again.
Picks, in bracket order: Washington State, Rutgers
Championship
I love Kyle Smith, and I think there might be something to the travel question, but I think Rutgers is the better team. It might be ugly, but I do like the Scarlet Knights to get it done.
Pick: Rutgers
NCAA Tournament
I’ll fill the rest of this in tomorrow, so come back for that if you’re interested (we’ll timestamp it), but we’ll at least start it today so we can include tonight’s games. One note: I will have neither of tonight’s winners winning in the first round. Iowa State gets through!
First Four
Texas A&M Corpus Christi is significantly better than SEMO on paper, so I won’t rock the boat there. Similarly, I don’t think there’s a world where Pitt’s a better team than Mississippi State right now. Good teams win.
First Four picks (Tuesday): TAMU-CC, Mississippi State
** Everything after this line was published Wednesday **
For the other two First Four games, I again like the favorites. I see Nevada as a pretty good team capable of playing badly, and I see Arizona State as a pretty bad team capable of playing well. I’ll specify whether I publish this in time or not, but I’ll probably take Nevada to beat TCU as well. In the 16-seed game, Texas Southern is better overall, has higher highs, and has more experience in bigger stages than Fairleigh Dickinson does. The NEC was atrociously bad this year.
First Four Picks (Wednesday): Texas Southern, Nevada
** Everything after this line was published following the Wednesday night games **
I consider myself a man of honor, and so I will be taking Nevada to the second round and be taking that as a loss. In the digital pools, this will result in me having an Arizona State interest, so there’s really no consequence, which makes it a lot easier. I won’t consider zombie Nevada or Arizona State to advance to the Sweet Sixteen unless I get into this and realize I really like Grand Canyon to upset Gonzaga.
As evidenced by the fact that I’m doing this at 1:00 in the morning the day the games start, I don’t have any more information than I did with the NIT. So, we’ll use the KenPom first round probabilities and then do some guesswork from there. Off we go.
First Round
I go by seed lines early, which I don’t love to do (it’s more fun to go game by game), but is nice for the sake of time and has gone well of late. On the 1-line, there’s about a 15% chance, per KenPom, that we see an upset. I’m not going to try to find one.
When you get to the 2-line, the chance becomes more likely than not that one team will fall. Meaning: There’s greater than a 50/50 shot somebody on the 1-line or 2-line loses within these next two days. Marquette is the smallest favorite of the 1’s or 2’s, but while Vermont shoots a lot of threes, their defense is weak enough that I think even a Catamount onslaught of threes could end in a boat race loss. Similarly, Colgate is good at shooting threes, but they don’t take very many. I’ll continue with chalk through here.
Adding 3’s, it’s too likely that there’s an upset to keep ignoring the possibility.
I think Kansas State is the weakest three-seed, a very accomplished but rather flawed team. But while Montana State is strong defensively and gets to the free throw line well, they’re an underwhelming bunch. Grand Canyon doesn’t show me a ton to like, especially with their poor ability to ward off turnovers. Kennesaw State is a good shooting team but doesn’t shoot that often. Still, Xavier is a clear third-best 3-seed. Then, there’s UCSB playing Baylor, whose defense is deservedly maligned. UCSB doesn’t shoot many threes, but they’re efficient scorers and Baylor’s perimeter defense looks better on paper than its interior.
In the end, I’m going with Kennesaw State, and then rolling with chalk for the other 3-seeds. Kennesaw can shoot, Xavier allows good looks, Kennesaw plays better defense than UCSB and is more tested, and therefore more proven. Hoot hoot, or whatever it is these particular Owls say.
Incorporating the 4-line, I don’t feel like I have to pick anyone. It’s likeliest we’ll see two teams on the top four lines drop, but under half-chaos, I’m already covered, so I only have to go further if I want to.
I think Tennessee is undervalued. Zakai Ziegler is good, and his absence hurts them, but this was a very good team with some bad luck. Could Louisiana beat them? Sure. Anything could happen on any of these lines, and from the 13-seeds up, it’s a strong crew. But ULL doesn’t do much that’s all that compelling, and their defense, again, is troublingly weak.
That leaves us with three more 4-seeds playing three more 13’s. Looking at Iona as a real basketball team, and not just Rick Pitino and a rotation of eight or nine players, we see they have an excellent turnover margin, play great shooting defense, are tough on the offensive boards, but are weak on the defensive boards and not great scorers themselves. UConn is the most prolific offensive rebounding team in the country (shoutout to KenPom on all of this by the way, all of it all of it all of it except for single-player defensive grades which come from EvanMiya), and they’re great scoring defenders. I don’t see this for the Gaels.
Kent State is a scrappy, mean team. They punish vulnerable point guards and they can hang in there on the offensive end. I don’t like how they match up with Trayce Jackson-Davis, though. I don’t like that one bit. Hoosiers advance.
That leaves us with Virginia playing Furman. I don’t know what to make of Virginia. They’re not particularly good, but they do have high upside, which is an odd thing to say about a team like this. Their slow play can make them vulnerable, but Furman pushes the pace, which could negate that to an extent. Furman does chuck a lot of threes, and Furman is highly efficient on offense, and Furman protects the ball. I’m going to leave Furman in the back pocket for a moment, see what we see on the 5/12 line, and go from there.
Expanding to 5’s, we can expect four 1 through 5-seeds to lose their first game. We have one down so far. Half-chaos would leave us at two, but we already have looked at the 6/11 games and don’t like the 11-seeds in any of them besides TCU/ASU, where we took “Nevada” (explanation there, since we’re here, is that TCU is dealing with off-court stuff and we thought Nevada was undervalued, a thought against which they argued strongly and persuasively tonight). Expanding this to all 24 1 through 6-seeds, the likeliest number of seed-line upsets is five, and we would like at least three to leave this at half-chaos. We have Kennesaw State. We have “Nevada.” We could add one more, or two more, or three more if we’re loving what we see.
On the 6-line, I do love Creighton, and I don’t hate NC State but I don’t like them enough. I don’t think anything at all of Pitt or Providence, so while I think Kentucky can be overvalued and Iowa State is risky, I’ll still take each of those two. That leaves my 6/11 line set, with the 5/12’s and UVA/Furman left to address.
I’m still high on the Mountain West. I understand the trend there, but I think it’s overstated and likely to regress, perhaps even further from the narrative after Nevada’s performance. I also think San Diego State’s in a different category from Boise State, Utah State, and Nevada. That said, I don’t love their guard play. That also said, I don’t love Charleston’s bigs on defense. What’s more, though, Hofstra looked great against Rutgers, and Charleston was otherwise somewhat untested. In the end, I’m taking San Diego State because I think they’re a great value play for the Sweet Sixteen, since Virginia appears so weak.
Duke is the best team in the ACC, clearly and decisively, but it’s not stupid to ask how much that means. Really, though, the question is how well anyone can guard Max Abmas. That’s what this game is about. I’m not sure anyone can. Let’s put a pin in it.
Miami is a weird case. They’re nearly a KenPom underdog against Drake, they’re probably not that good, but their offense is great, and specifically their guards are great, and great guards are great in March, or so the story goes (I won’t get into it in too much detail, but I mostly trust this as an idea because it reflects consistency). Drake is also strong offensively, though, and they aren’t bad on the defensive end themselves. Another strong possibility.
Finally, VCU is vicious defensively, and they’re playing a freshman guard in Aidan Mahaney. Does Logan Johnson take enough heat off the young guy to keep Saint Mary’s ok? I do think so, and I do not at all trust VCU’s offense, and I like Saint Mary’s rebounding. Go Gaels.
So, we’re picking one, two, or three out of Furman, Oral Roberts, and Drake. I feel worst about Miami in the next round, so let’s take Drake there. I feel best about Oral Roberts in a matchup sense, so I’ll take them as well and we’ll let Virginia move on.
On the 8/9 and 7/10 lines, I don’t try to do anything fancy, but I do maybe lean towards 10-seeds because it’s fun to have a double-digit seed into the Elite Eight. Going down the bracket in order:
I think West Virginia and Maryland are both underappreciated, and that the winner is going to be a more significant test for Alabama than people realize. For West Virginia, it comes from getting rebounds and getting to the free throw line and forcing turnovers. Very Bob Huggins. For Maryland, ball protection is actually solid and the team slows it down. In the end, I want to have the option to pick against Alabama in the second round if I want that. I’ll take West Virginia, who seems likelier to cause chaos against the Tide.
I think Utah State is really good offensively, and I love what Missouri’s done this year but the Luck number is too high. I’m a little worried about Utah State handling Mizzou’s pressure, but I think they’re too good overall, and again—I like having the 10-seed around.
With Memphis and FAU, I think you can flip a coin. I’m going with FAU because I think most people will choose Memphis on the heels of last year’s fun game with Gonzaga.
Michigan State isn’t much better than USC, and again, I like the contrarian pick and I like having a 10-seed around. USC it is.
Iowa isn’t quite as good as Auburn, and with that game in Birmingham, I think the Tigers win it.
Texas A&M is significantly better than Penn State, even if Micah Shrewsberry is a great coach.
Arkansas and Illinois are similar teams in terms of having a lot of talent and very little composure. I’ll trust the more talented of the two.
Again, with Boise State and Northwestern, I don’t trust Boise State but I also don’t trust the Wildcats. I think the Mountain West is being undervalued because of some chance happenings. I’ll take the Broncos.
Picks: Alabama, West Virginia, San Diego State, Virginia, Creighton, Baylor, Utah State, Arizona, Purdue, FAU, Oral Roberts, Tennessee, Kentucky, Kansas State, USC, Marquette, Houston, Auburn, Drake, Indiana, Iowa State, Kennesaw State, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, UConn, “Nevada,” Gonzaga, Boise State, UCLA
Second Round
What I’m doing here, for the probabilities, is looking at the matchups I’ve already chosen and then using estimated KenPom probabilities for that matchup, using our own formula which approximates his win probability curve. Again, we’ll start on the 1-line, where we estimate Alabama to have a 70% chance to beat West Virginia, Houston to have a 77% chance to beat Auburn, Kansas to have a 62% chance to beat Arkansas, and Purdue to have a 66% chance to beat FAU.
I’ll take Houston, and I’ll take Purdue. I have concerns with each—Marcus Sasser’s groin and the game’s in Birmingham, Purdue’s guards and FAU’s a little unknown—but Houston’s the most likely winner, statistically, and FAU is worse than West Virginia or Arkansas on paper.
With Kansas, my general thought is that they’re a team where everyone knows their role and does that role well and nobody does that role particularly poorly. They’re a rare team where I don’t think the Luck score is fully luck, because I think they handle ends of close games well. I’ve referred to them “answering the bell” a lot this year. Kansas has a terribly difficult path, though. It’s terribly difficult. The 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 12th-ranked teams in KenPom are all in their region, and none of those are Kansas. Last year, the Jayhawks were a good pick to go far because of the opposite phenomenon—they’d drawn Wisconsin and Providence in their set of sixteen. This year, it’s going to be tough.
With Alabama, there’s no other top-nine team in the region, but there are four between 10th and 15th, and West Virginia isn’t far off. The Tide can be a mess at times, but Brandon Miller is very, very good at basketball. I don’t know what to make of them either.
I don’t feel like I have to take one of these teams, and I don’t love either of West Virginia or Arkansas to pull off the upset, so I’m going to have all 1-seeds advance. But I’m growing more willing to axe Bama and Kansas as rounds go on.
On the 2-line, the probabilities in the matchups I have are: Arizona a 62% favorite over Utah State, Marquette a 65% favorite over USC, Texas a 66% favorite over Texas A&M, and UCLA a 76% favorite over Boise State.
Let’s start by putting UCLA into the Sweet Sixteen. No guarantees, but they’re the biggest favorite in this entire hypothetical round aside from Houston and Kennesaw State’s opponent (who is Iowa State). Among the other three, I feel I should really take one, if not two.
Wade Taylor is a strong offensive player. A bit unheralded nationally, but very strong. His issue is turnovers, though, and Texas forces those. Will he play more off the ball? Doubtful. On the other end, A&M should give Texas fits, but Texas has good guards themselves. I’ll put them through.
This leaves me picking against either Arizona, Marquette, or both. This works for me—I’m not hugely into either team—but it works better with Utah State beating Arizona, since that’s likelier statistically. I’ll take Utah State, then, in another firefight, and let’s take a good look at Marquette vs. USC.
With USC, Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson are good players, but I think less highly of their supporting cast. With Marquette, I think they’ve peaked lately and are hard to see continuing to play at this level, and I have concerns about the sustainability of playing with as much emotion as they’re expending. I don’t love Kentucky or Kansas State, though, and I see USC often playing flat, so I’ll uncomfortably put Marquette into the next round.
In the remaining eight games, I’ve got four involving double digit seeds and four that don’t. Let’s work on the three first, and see what our options are.
I’m not going to take Kennesaw State to beat Iowa State. I don’t think Iowa State’s one of the best 16 teams in the country, but I like their chances enough, and I think they’re a valuable enough play.
I’m not going to take either of Arizona State and Nevada to beat Gonzaga. Neither of those teams is good enough to believably do that.
This leaves Drake playing Indiana and Oral Roberts playing Tennessee as two options for double-digit teams into the Sweet Sixteen. Either is believable. I have an instinct to take Tennessee to beat Oral Roberts, because I think Tennessee is undervalued and Oral Roberts is probably overvalued because they’re fun and of all the years for Rick Barnes to finally get back to the Sweet Sixteen, this one would be unexpected, which tracks with how you can often make some moves in these pools. In terms of the matchups, though, I’m not certain about Drake slowing down Jackson-Davis and I’m not sure about Tennessee slowing down Abmas.
I’m going to take Tennessee, and I’m going to take Drake, and I don’t love either but I like Houston a lot and I like Purdue’s path enough for this to be a one-round problem.
In the other four, we’re going straight matchups: San Diego State vs. Virginia. Creighton vs. Baylor. Kentucky vs. Kansas State. Saint Mary’s vs. UConn.
Creighton and Baylor (and Arizona, and Mizzou, and Utah State, and NC State—all of whom are in the same half of the South Region) are so fun. They’re so darn fun. But Creighton is the better team, narrowly, and Creighton is the more well-rounded team by a wide margin. Creighton is on my radar as a valuable title pick, albeit a longshot. They’re moving on.
I don’t want to trust Tony Bennett, but I do. It’s a problem. Still, San Diego State is strong enough defensively that with Virginia missing Ben Vander Plas, I think the SDSU/Charleston winner will probably advance. I have that being SDSU.
Kansas State is a little better than Kentucky and enjoys a nice draw here. But at the same time, Kentucky’s likelier to have a good crowd in Greensboro, and while I know Kentucky’s a popular pick and I know Kentucky’s a risky pick because the Providence probability is narrow compared to the Montana State one…
No.
I have to take K-State.
They can win on the road, too.
UConn vs. Saint Mary’s is so interesting. Both strong on the glass, UConn kind of weirdly constructed, Saint Mary’s a more efficiently run team. With Saint Mary’s playing the whole way across the country, though, and with the games in Albany a strong possibility to be the early start, and with UConn a lot better on paper than Saint Mary’s even if Saint Mary’s is quite good…I’m taking UConn.
Picks: Alabama, San Diego State, Creighton, Utah State, Purdue, Tennessee, Kansas State, Marquette, Houston, Drake, Iowa State, Texas, Kansas, UConn, Gonzaga, UCLA
Sweet Sixteen
So now we have a 1/5/6/10 region in the South, a 1/2/3/4 region in the East, a 1/2/6/12 region in the Midwest, and a 1/2/3/4 region in the West. In the South, it’s still got four of the country’s 21 best teams, by KenPom. In the West, it has four of the country’s best nine.
Let’s start at the top. Alabama is better than San Diego State, and I’m not sure I trust San Diego State, but let’s see if we could get there. The biggest issue for the Aztecs is figuring out how to score points. Alabama does a great job of preventing those, but they’ve played an abundance of poorly shooting teams (for whatever reason, the SEC sucks at shooting the basketball this year). San Diego State has a few shooters, but none are excellent when you account for volume. Could San Diego State slow this team down? I’m not sure. They held Arkansas in check in Maui but they had less luck against Arizona. That was also Maui, though, where offenses rule.
In the absence of a great comparison, I’m going to take Alabama.
I’m taking Creighton over Utah State. Utah State has gone far enough for me, and while I like putting a double-digit seed in the Elite Eight, they’re the closest to one I really believe in this year, and I believe in Creighton more. There are plenty of others I could see doing it, but this is where I think the value lies.
I like Purdue over Tennessee. I don’t think Purdue is playing its best right now, but they’re closer to it than Tennessee is to its best.
I like Marquette over Kansas State in a game of teams that aren’t as good as their highest perception, because Marquette is the better of the two.
Houston will beat Drake in this bracket.
I would like Iowa State’s chances against Texas were Caleb Grill still on the team and a positive member of the team. He’s not, though, and for as strong a crowd as I think the Cyclones will bring to Kansas City, I just think the ceiling is too low.
Kansas vs. UConn is a doozy. You could make Kansas/UConn/Gonzaga/UCLA the Final Four and I would adore it over any other possible combination aside from one swapping out Gonzaga for Houston. This is a fun, fun region, and this is a fun, fun game.
I think Bill Self is a lot smarter than Dan Hurley. I think it’s a good value play to take UConn, but I don’t like taking it myself. Rock Chalk in this one. All four 1-seeds to the Elite Eight. Kind of a weird year in that we’re lamenting the absence of national powers, but the 1-seeds are all at least convincing. We had a lot of convincing conference championships, I guess.
What is UCLA without Jaylen Clark? Eventually, it becomes the question. Clark was so good, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
In the end, my thinking with this is that defense might be easier to teach, and that Mick Cronin might figure it out, and that Gonzaga’s getting a little trendy again. Watson and Timme scare the daylights out of me against even a healthy Bona, but I don’t think Gonzaga’s guards are all that good. Maybe that’s some Rasir Bolton bias from his time at Iowa State and the horrific team he led, but it’s what’s in my head. I’m taking UCLA.
Picks: Alabama, Creighton, Purdue, Marquette, Houston, Texas, Kansas, UCLA
Elite Eight
This leaves me with a painfully chalky bracket, but I think what we might have this year is an abundance of A- teams and then none above a B-level. Maybe that’s what makes this make sense.
I don’t see Houston losing for Texas. I think Marcus Sasser will be fine enough. That’s my current read.
I don’t see Purdue losing to Marquette. I can see it, but I don’t see it. I think Purdue’s path is underappreciatedly open, and I want to ride that.
With Creighton and Alabama, the question is whether I take a shot or don’t. It’s a silly question, but that’s kind of the deal. If Creighton wins, I probably end up in great position. If Creighton loses, I probably badly need Purdue to win. Still, I’m fine having two tries to take down Brandon Miller. That seems to set me up for some entertainment. I’ll put Creighton in the Final Four.
And finally, Kansas vs. UCLA. Oddly, I like Houston more against Kansas than against UCLA. Something about the way UCLA controls the fluidity of games reminds me of how Villanova took Houston so out of whack last year. So one option would be to pick Kansas and have Houston win and then win it all, and another would be to pick UCLA and then have UCLA beat Houston and set up an intriguing final between them and either Creighton or Purdue. I could also go in the middle, of course.
I sat down planning to take Houston to win it all, and I think that’s what I’m going to do. I hate to take Kansas to survive such a brutal path, but all three of UConn, Gonzaga, and UCLA have at least one fatal flaw. Guard play, guard play and defense, the Clark injury and Bona. Kansas/UCLA is the hardest for me. It’s a tossup. But I will take Kansas.
Picks: Creighton, Purdue, Houston, Kansas
Final Four
Purdue vs. Creighton seems like a fun one. I think I’ve gotten enough value out of Creighton by now, and that works well, because I think Purdue is the better team. As I said, I see Houston making Kansas lose. It’s a little gut, but I see Houston causing more problems for Kansas’s offense.
Picks: Purdue, Houston
Championship
In a matchup of two 1-seeds, then (the half-chaos would’ve said to take Creighton, so maybe this is quarter-chaos), I’ll take the Cougs. The best team in the country. I’ve asked all year if they’re consistent enough on offense. I think they really are. Even if Sasser isn’t 100%.
For the final score, my KenPom estimate says the margin should be three points, and with each team so slow but this game close in this scenario I’ll call it a 64-possession game. I’ll say they combine for about 1.05 points per possession. Let’s say Houston 69, Purdue 66.
