Alec Mills pitched great, and that’s all I’m gonna say about last night’s game except that…oh crap. This is a Javy Báez post.
Yes, Javy Báez made two errors last night. Yes, they came in the same inning. No, errors aren’t the best indicator of someone’s defensive ability. Yes, errors are still bad. No, we don’t really have a great defensive metric to sub in the way we can sub wRC+ or even just OBP for batting average. Yes, we’re still confident Javy Báez is strong defensively. No, we don’t really know how strong Javy Báez is defensively.
That $200 million number Jon Heyman or whoever mentioned with regard to Báez’s target contract this offseason has been getting a lot of attention, and has ballooned from Heyman speculating offhand to people acting like Báez tattooed a two and eight zeroes on his buttcheeks then showed them to the camera last night after throwing a ball over the Gateway Arch. We didn’t hear $200M from Javy Báez. He heard it from Jon Heyman, who heard it as speculation, and who heard it regarding all the free-agent shortstops, which includes a lot of names (Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, Brandon Crawford, Miguel Rojas, and no not everyone will get $200M from that list but again this was Heyman spitballing this wasn’t Heyman setting the effing market).
Anyway, what’s a reasonable contract for one Javier Báez? The answer depends a lot on defense. Here are Báez’s fWAR’s (listed first) and bWAR’s (listed second) since 2016, his first full year in the big leagues:
2016: 2.2, 2.8
2017: 2.4, 2.6
2018: 5.4, 6.4
2019: 4.4, 6.7
2020: 0.0, 0.9
2021: 1.9, 2.8
Those are some big gaps. Some big, big gaps. Some gaps for which the main difference is, presumably, the way defensive value is calculated. If you use fWAR, you’d guess Báez might end this season with about 3.5 fWAR, maybe landing at 4.0 next season and the following and then declining from there through his 30’s. If you use bWAR, he might end up around 4.5 WAR this year, perhaps bouncing to 5.0 next year and the following before beginning that decline (I have Báez performing better next year than this year and last because of my impression that 2018 and ’19 still have some predictive power and he’s not yet at the age at which hitters traditionally begin their decline). That’s a big difference, one WAR. That’s an eight million dollar difference (using the traditional free agent price) each year. Over four years, that’s $32M. Over seven, that’s $56M. That’s an enormous difference.
Say we split the difference. Say we expect Báez to sit at 4.5 WAR in 2022 and ’23 before beginning that half-a-WAR-per-year decline. Over the next four years, we would then expect Báez to amass 16.5 WAR, worth $132M at the extremely simplistic $8M/WAR rate. Over the next seven, we’d expect him to amass 24 WAR, worth $192M. That’s not that far from $200M, especially for a face-of-the-franchise guy who brings in at least a few million with his swagger alone (I’m not kidding).
There’s a question of how his defense will age, and I don’t personally know the answer to that question. There are concerns that his defense won’t age that well, since people don’t remain as quick as they get older. This is fair, but it’s also fair to say that Javier Báez’s defensive ability is rather unusual, is clearly hard to measure, and that since we don’t have a great understanding of how more routine defense ages we certainly don’t have a great understanding of how Javier Báez’s defense ages.
With this, though, there’s some comfort to be found in the fact that Báez is currently on the Cubs, and has spent his whole career on the Cubs. One would assume that the Cubs, with access to data on every heartbeat Báez’s heart has beat over the last near-decade, have a better idea of how he’ll age and what that’ll mean for his defense than anyone else on the market, and certainly a better idea than we have. The Cubs might overpay for Báez, but they seem less likely to overpay because of a flawed premise than any other team in baseball (there’s a facet of this—the marketing facet—where Báez really is worth more to the Cubs financially than he’s worth to any other team, too).
Anyway, I wouldn’t be upset if the Cubs gave Báez $200M over seven years. I’d love that number over eight years, especially if there are a couple club options involved. I also wouldn’t mind them trading him to the Mets if they can get a big return for him with Francisco Lindor hurt and the Phillies gaining ground (big return in this case equals probably one top-100ish prospect and one or two other guys in the top ten or twenty in that system).
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Around the Division:
The Brewers did not play, and thus only gained half a game on the Cubs. The Reds played an exceptionally fun game against the Mets and lost it 15-11 in eleven innings.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 56-39, 92.7%
2. Cincinnati: 48-46, 4.5%
3. St. Louis: 47-47, 1.6%
4. Cubs: 46-48, 1.2%
5. Pittsburgh: 36-58, 0.0%
This division race is probably over.
Up Next:
Game 2
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Whom:
Cubs vs. St. Louis
When:
7:15 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Busch Stadium
Weather:
Temperature around the lower 80’s, wind blowing in from left (I think) at around five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Trevor Williams vs. Johan Oviedo
The Opponent:
Oviedo’s got a 5.09 ERA backed by a 6.19 xERA and a 5.30 FIP over 53 innings of work. He walks a batter more often than once every two innings, and he’s made it through five innings just three times this year in eleven starts.
The Numbers:
Cubs are +100 underdogs, Cardinals are at -110, that’s about a 49% win probability. Over/under’s at nine and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Dillon Maples was activated from his rehab stint yesterday, with Kyle Ryan optioned to AAA in exchange.
Cubs Thoughts:
This lineup should beat Johan Oviedo even if Williams is slightly worse than his average self.
