1. The Cubs couldn’t steal one.
This is the best way to sum up last night’s game. It wasn’t that the Cubs had the game in hand. It was that they didn’t get away with one in which they were outpitched and outhit. Now…
2. That Jason Heyward home run would have changed the game.
There’s no denying that. Different bullpen usage, some possible opening of the floodgates, etc. That ball being ruled foul didn’t necessarily lose the Cubs the game, but it might have. There’s a chance it did. We don’t have the counterfactual.
3. Was it foul?
We didn’t see. Which was odd. We don’t know. Presumably, given how quick the review was, there was a very clear angle in New York. That seems like the best assumption, and therefore there probably isn’t room to complain.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers pulled past the Rockies late, turning a 4-3 deficit entering the bottom of the seventh into a 10-4 win. The Reds won against Atlanta, 4-1, with Luis Castillo turning in a solid seven innings. The Cardinals finally beat the Pirates, by a score of 3-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 44-33, 67.1%
2. Cubs: 42-35, 20.8%
3. Cincinnati: 38-37, 9.4%
4. St. Louis: 37-40, 2.7%
5. Pittsburgh: 28-47, 0.0%
It’s Eric Lauer against Chi Chi González in Milwaukee. Tyler Mahle against Kyle Muller in Cincinnati. Johan Oviedo against debuting Max Kranick (not a big prospect) in St. Louis.
Up Next:
The finale.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Los Angeles
When:
6:08 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Chavez Ravine
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s to start the game, wind blowing leisurely out towards left. Five miles per hour or so.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Clayton Kershaw
The Opponent:
Kershaw’s only 33. Guy’s been around forever, but he’s only 33. And he’s not showing signs of slowing down yet, with a 2.95 FIP and a 3.12 xERA. Tough matchup. Always a tough one.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +180 underdogs with the Dodgers at -200. So a little better than a one-in-three chance of a win. Over/under’s at eight.
Cubs News:
Nico Hoerner starts his rehab assignment today, which is welcome news for an offense that feels like it could use some contact, and for a defense that wouldn’t mind having a Gold Glove-caliber guy there in the middle infield most days.
Cubs Thoughts:
Falling three games back of the Brewers to end June would not be a disaster. But. Winning and pulling off a split would be an accomplishment, and would send the Cubs to Milwaukee riding high.
