I neglected to mention Jake Marisnick as a possible trade target in yesterday’s post, and it was me forgetting, not me having some brainy take about why Marisnick will stay a Cub. But with last night another dud and us all just kind of waiting to finally see what happens and finally see how we actually feel about what happens, let’s talk Marisnick.
I had a P.E. teacher who once said, “I wish I’d been around in the 80’s. I would’ve been a viking.” To be clear, the P.E. teacher probably meant that he wished he’d been an adolescent and/or adult in the 80’s (he was around in the 80’s, he was just a child), but the point stands: Jake Marisnick would’ve been a lot more appreciated a few decades ago.
He’s fast. He plays good defense. Those are good skills for a player to have, and can turn him into something of a useful postseason role player (see: Roberts, Dave; 2004). But he’s not some bopper who’s going to transform an offense, and the 0.2 fWAR FanGraphs projects him to attain over the rest of the year feels potentially optimistic given he’s been evenly replacement-level so far.
Taking that 0.2 fWAR at face value, though, and in turn ignoring the potential value for a role player in Marisnick’s role (an even set of concessions, I would argue), and assuming the Cubs will eat the remaining $500K or so of Marisnick’s salary, the guy’s worth about $1.6M in market value, which comes out to roughly a 40 FV prospect, or someone who would land in the top 40 of the Cubs’ system but not the top 25.
That’s pretty good, actually! For a replacement-level player? That’s pretty good. So, to amend what I wrote yesterday (which was that if pressed, I’d say the Cubs trade Kimbrel, Tepera, Davies, one of Bryant and Winkler, and one surprise like Brothers or Rizzo), I’d now say that the Cubs trade Kimbrel and Tepera and probably Marisnick, and probably Davies but the silence around him is baffling, and probably Bryant and probably Winkler but those are close to tossups, meaning I’d really expect four or five of those guys to move and then maybe still one more surprise. But this is just me guessing. Regardless, as long as Kimbrel and Tepera move, you’re probably getting a good farm system boost in the next 36 hours, and hopefully the Cubs can move Davies since there’s really no reason not to move Davies even if it’s just for a box of pencils. You’re out of the playoff race. He’s going to be a free agent. He’s blocking prospects you want to try out as starters. Any value you can get is good value.
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Around the Division:
The Brewers dealt for Eduardo Escobar and got him for cheap, which is a bummer, but doesn’t really affect the Cubs this year. The Brewers beat the Pirates 7-3, which is also a bummer, but also doesn’t really affect the Cubs this year. The Cardinals lost in Cleveland, 7-2.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 60-42, 91.9%
2. Cincinnati: 53-49, 6.3%
3. St. Louis: 51-51, 1.4%
4. Cubs: 50-53, 0.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 38-63, 0.0%
Almost to zero.
The Cardinals are off today. It’s Freddy Peralta vs. Chad Kuhl in Pittsburgh.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperature at about eighty degrees, wind blowing in from left at about fifteen miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Luis Castillo
The Opponent:
After a rocky, rocky start, Castillo has settled in and currently sits with a 3.78 FIP and a 3.90 xERA behind a 4.20 ERA. Not his numbers last year, but that FIP is close to his career average, and in his last nine starts he’s got a 2.81 FIP and a 1.73 ERA. Luis Castillo remains Luis Castillo.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +110 underdogs with the Reds at -130 for about a 45% win probability. Over/under’s at 7½ and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
No moves, intrafranchise or otherwise, that I’m aware of, but keep your eye out as the day goes on. Keep an eye on Nico Hoerner, too—he left last night with oblique tightness.
Cubs Thoughts:
The series can still be split.
