1. That was likely peak (2021) Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta worked through trouble, only walked one, and struck out five in his six-inning, one-run effort, leading the Cubs to their first win of the season. There was some hard contact, which one can probably expect against Arrieta this year, but the big guy’s results were at the front end of the bell curve of what that combination of contact and command can yield. Good outing. Great outcome.
2. The aggression was fun.
The offense got more out of home runs than stolen bases, and if you just line up all the hits and outs in the second inning, Javy Báez stealing second and third didn’t change anything. But it did add some energy, and there’s no counterfactual about what would have happened had Báez not taken at least one of those bags.
3. Nice to see Heyward smack one.
It’s always nice to see Jason Heyward succeed. Does the good-guy thing really well. Hopefully it was the first of a lot of missiles for him this year.
4. Nice to get Kris Bryant on the leaderboard.
Every time Bryant has a good day at the plate, anxiety about his wrist can go down by that much more.
5. The back end of the bullpen worked as designed.
It wasn’t especially high-leverage, but seeing Brandon Workman, Andrew Chafin, and Craig Kimbrel mow through a bad team, striking out seven of nine batters, felt good. That’s how good bullpens look.
6. Is Ian Happ not an everyday player?
Happ’s omission from the lineup was a surprise, and I think we’re all kind of wondering if that’ll just be the deal against lefties for the time being. Haven’t seen anything too specific from David Ross on the matter yet.
7. Glad the Ke’Bryan Hayes x-rays were negative.
Curious if we’ll see Hayes back out there today for the Pirates. Hopefully whatever’s causing the discomfort is minor and quick to recede.
***
Around the Division:
Benches cleared in Cincinnati and the Reds beat the Cardinals 9-6, moving each of those teams to 1-1. The Brewers nearly got no-hit (broke it up in the eighth) and nearly got a no-hitter (Corbin Burnes’s bid was broken up in the seventh) in a 2-0 loss to the Twins. The Brewers are now also 1-1. Everyone in the Central is 1-1.
Up Next:
Rubber match with the Pirates this afternoon. Let’s break it down:
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Clear skies again with temperatures in the low 60’s. Winds around 10 mph, moving from right to left.
The Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Mitch Keller
The Opponent:
Keller, a righty, has just 16 career major league starts. Today is his 25th birthday. Over his young career, he has a 5.81 ERA but his FIP sits at 4.30. FanGraphs projects him for a 4.41 FIP this season. In other words? Probably solid, but with more uncertainty than is the norm.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at -175 to win, implying slightly better than 60% odds. The over/under is set at eight.
Cubs News:
Nothing too noteworthy.
Cubs Thoughts:
Winning the series is back on the table, and if the Cubs win this series, it’ll have been a successful opening half-week, Thursday’s ugliness and all. None of Workman, Chafin, and Kimbrel threw more than 16 pitches yesterday, but Workman did throw 23 on Thursday and Chafin also worked Thursday. Guessing all are available, but not positive about that.
