Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh
Where:
PNC Park
When:
5:35 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s throughout the game, with the wind blowing a bit left of the left field foul pole at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. TBA (expected to be Cody Ponce)
The Opponent:
If Ponce is indeed the starter, it’s not a bad draw for the Cubs. Something of a non-prospect taken from the Brewers in the Jordan Lyles deal in 2019, the expectation on Ponce is that he’ll be competent but not exceptional, with only 17 MLB innings off of which to make much of a claim.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -134 favorites, with their hosts at +124, which comes out to about a 55% chance of a win. The over/under is at 8½ and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Tony Wolters cleared waivers and will play in Des Moines. I haven’t seen much else of note besides that, but keep an eye out for Willson Contreras wrist news (though there was some indication he might be out of the lineup today for rest anyway).
Cubs Thoughts:
Winning series against the Pirates is important, and this time is no different. If the Cubs can go 4-2 this week, taking sets from the Pirates and the Reds, there’s a good chance they’ll be in a position to take the division lead on Memorial Day and exit May in first place. Being in that space in the race would be important entering a June slate that features four games in Los Angeles, three in San Diego, four in Queens, three in San Francisco, three in Milwaukee, and a combined seven at home against St. Louis, Cleveland, and San Diego (not including Monday’s San Diego game). The only other games in June are a three-game set at Wrigley against the Marlins, who you may have already noted are the only team currently on the Cubs’ June schedule without a winning record. So…yeah. Entering June right there with the division leaders is important. Especially knowing the decisions that await the front office in July.
Around the Division:
Lance Lynn beat the Cardinals last night on the South Side, with the Sox triumphing 5-1. Brandon Woodruff got run support early against a scuffling Blake Snell and pitched seven shoutout innings to get the Brewers a 5-3 win.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 26-21, 29.0%
2. Cubs: 24-22, 21.0%
3. Milwaukee: 24-23, 41.5%
4. Cincinnati: 20-25, 8.5%
5. Pittsburgh: 18-28, 0.1%
It’s Flaherty vs. Giolito tonight in Game 2 of that Cardinals/White Sox set. Corbin Burnes opposes Joe Musgrove in Milwaukee. Tyler Mahle and the Reds have to deal with Max Scherzer in Washington.
Lastly, not sure I mentioned this already, but Miles Mikolas is back on the IL for the Cardinals, and it sounds possible that end-of-season surgery is coming. Another dip in a rollercoaster career for that guy.
