“It’s Only April:” Which MLB Teams Have Helped and Hurt Themselves the Most

“It’s only April.”

We say that a lot around this point in the Major League Baseball season, and we mean it, and it’s true. It is only April. Very few games have been played. It’s easy to overreact. But at the same time, these games count. They count just as much as ones played at the end of September. Teams are helping themselves. Teams are hurting themselves. Let’s quantify some of that.

Just now, I pulled FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds from both this morning and from the day before Opening Day. I then measured three painfully simple variables:

• The first, Change in Projected Wins, is how much each team’s projected final win/loss total has shifted and in what direction. The Rockies were expected to win 67.5 games, they’re now expected to win 71.1. That’s a positive change of 3.6 wins.
• The second, Change in Playoff Probability (% pts) measures how much each team’s playoff probability has shifted, measured linearly. The Giants moving from 48.3% playoff-likely to 69.1% playoff-likely is, measured this way, a 20.8-percentage point shift in a positive direction.
• The third, Change in Playoff Probability (%) measures how much each team’s playoff probability has shifted relative to its own size. This is the relationship between the current playoff probability and the original playoff probability, so when we say the Giants’ 48.3%-to-69.1% shift is a 43% improvement, we mean it’s 43% better than it originally was.

The full list is below, but here are the teams who’ve meaningfully helped themselves the most, followed by those who’ve most meaningfully hurt themselves. The helpers:

San Francisco Giants: 3.5-win increase, 20.8-percentage point playoff probability increase, 43% playoff probability improvement

“It’s only April,” but Carlos Rodón and Logan Webb have pitched a combined 26 innings over four starts, they’ve allowed just four combined earned runs (yes, one per start), and the Giants bring a 7-2 record into today’s doubleheader in Queens. “It’s only April,” but Joey Bart and Joc Pederson have been a heck of a supporting cast for Brandon Belt in the batting order, and whatever happens from here, that will have mattered.

New York Mets: 3.3-win increase, 14.9-percentage point playoff probability increase, 22% playoff probability improvement

“It’s only April,” but the Mets have been just fine with Max Scherzer limited, Jacob deGrom sidelined, and a minor Covid outbreak in the locker room forcing the front office to already look hard at the 40-man roster. Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have raked, Eduardo Escobar’s been a wonderful pickup, and the Mets have pulled even with Atlanta in projected wins after starting the season expected to be 4.5 games worse. That’s a big swing, and to turn to the “today is the first day of the rest of your life” line of thinking, it’s the new starting point for the rest of the year.

Chicago White Sox: 1.9-win increase, 11.5-percentage point playoff probability increase, 16% playoff probability improvement

Will the White Sox hand the AL Central back over already? It’s not looking that way. They’ve won three straight series to start the year, all over teams that came in feeling *trendy*—Detroit, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. “It’s only April,” but if the Guardians, Tigers, Twins, or Royals wants to come back and win the AL Central, they’ll have to outplay the leaders by an additional two games over these next five and a half months.

***

Those who’ve been hurt:

Philadelphia Phillies: 3.2-win decrease, 24.0-percentage point playoff probability decrease, 39% playoff probability worsening

“It’s only April,” but when you lose five of seven against division opponents and then drop the opener of a winnable series, it hurts. You do that in August, sports radio loses its mind. You do that in April, sports radio loses its mind but it’s called overreacting (and you’re shielded a bit by the Sixers).

Tampa Bay Rays: 2.6-win decrease, 14.3-percentage point playoff probability decrease, 27% playoff probability worsening

The Rays were a bane last year for those of us who use these FanGraphs Playoff Odds to make, ahem, *investments*, but what if one year doesn’t make a trend? “It’s only April,” but FanGraphs was low on the Rays, and now it’s lower, because for as good as Ji-Man Choi and Wander Franco have been, and for as in-line with the rest of the AL East contenders as that run differential is, the Rays came off a sweep of the Orioles and lost five of seven, including three of four at home to the A’s, and they’re off to a bad start in this three-game set at Wrigley Field. A missed layup is still a missed layup when it happens in the first quarter. We just say, “That might come back to bite them,” instead of, “Holy hell they just missed a layup.”

Milwaukee Brewers: 1.4-win decrease, 7.2-percentage point playoff probability decrease, 9% playoff probability worsening

The Brewers had a pretty good cushion from which to work, given the general lack of competition in the NL Central this year, but Nolan Arenado’s heroics and the Cubs getting big things out of Seiya Suzuki and Keegan Thompson (who are second and fourth in the Majors in Win Probability Added so far, meaning they’ve come through with the most on the line) have meant the Brewers are looking just that little bit less assured of success, and that’s with FanGraphs projecting perfect health for the five arms upon whom the Brewers are outsizedly reliant (to be fair, the Brewers might trot out another absolute stud without warning, as is their wont). “It’s only April,” but the Brewers have to fix their eyes a bit more strongly on those behind them.

***

Alright, here’s the full table, ordered by the percentage point playoff probability change, since that’s probably the most meaningful: