The Cubs did not stand pat at the Trade Deadline, and perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising. The reluctance from ownership to extend large offseason contracts has, at times, felt more focused on luxury tax considerations and the bad taste of the Jason Heyward deal than something stemming from an actual shortage of money, though the layoffs of scouts and development staff do swim contrary to the cash-strapped narrative (though I suppose minor league contraction could be playing as much a role in those moves as financial strain). In the end, the Cubs also didn’t exactly balloon their payroll, picking up four affordable role players on a market where few big chips were available. So, we aren’t surprised, but we don’t know what this says about the ol’ pocketbook.
The moves don’t significantly change the makeup of the roster, but they do shore up the edges. José Martínez should take some of Victor Caratini’s at-bat’s against left-handed pitching, as well as those of Albert Almora Jr. Cameron Maybin will likewise take some of Almora’s vacated playing time, while also presumably filling some of the Steven Souza Jr. role. Josh Osich gives the bullpen an arm that will hopefully prove serviceable against lefties. Andrew Chafin gives the bullpen an arm capable of capitalizing on high-leverage opportunities and locking down lefties.
In total, the bullpen got a bit better, the lineup got a bit better, and the late-inning defense got a smidge worse, assuming we don’t see Almora again in 2020. The team as a whole lines up rather clearly now as the best roster in the NL Central, and with the three-game lead, this makes the Cubs the clear favorite over the field if they weren’t already. At five games back of the Dodgers, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs locking up home field throughout the NL half of the playoffs, but they should be home for the Wild Card Series and, if they make it, possibly the Division Series, most likely facing someone in the Cardinals/Phillies/Reds/Brewers/Marlins/Mets realm in the former, and perhaps one of those or the Braves, or Rockies, or Giants in the latter.
Of course, that’s just the script. We’ll see if it’s followed. And while it’s fair to call this the final iteration of the roster, a lot can happen over 26 games.
The first three of those games come in Pittsburgh, and they’re three of only seven remaining games against non-playoff contenders (with the latter four also coming in Pittsburgh). While the back end of the rotation is currently in some turmoil, with Tyler Chatwood’s health uncertain, Alec Mills still proving himself, and José Quintana still working his way back from the kitchen injury, that’s an issue for this weekend, because for this week, it’s Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, and presumably Yu Darvish, though it’s possible he could be pushed back a day to face Jack Flaherty in this weekend’s series opener.
Lester’s been a concern, struggling in two of his last three starts and working around a lot of trouble in the third. He’s 36 now, and his velocity continues to decline, but on the whole, he’s not exactly unreliable—he’s merely more a back-end guy than an ace, at least for now. And with Hendricks still firmly a sub-4.00 FIP guy, and Darvish a Cy Young contender, Lester doesn’t need to be an ace, even if it’d be nice to get some big outings from him in October. The conventional wisdom would say that two of him, Quintana, Mills, and maybe Adbert Alzolay need to come through, and that conventional wisdom’s probably correct—even the 2019 Nationals, with a similarly ramshackle bullpen, relied heavily on Aníbal Sánchez to get them to the finish line, and that was with three aces rather than two (and all three were, frankly, better than Hendricks at his average).
In short, it’s all about lefties these days. Lester. Chafin. Osich. Whoever’s pitching to Martínez. And while the goal, as always, is to just win the series against the Pirates, a strong outing from Lester tonight could set the Cubs up for a sweep, which would in turn extend the division lead by at least half a game heading into a big weekend against the Cardinals.
