The argument that we should want the Cubs to lose feels particularly weak this week, for the following reasons:
- As we’ve harped on all month, each individual draft slot isn’t worth that much in value. It’s more valuable to get the kind of performances from guys who are sticking around that will eventually beget winning. The market value of a win is something like $8 million. The market value of one spot in the draft order is something like $500 thousand. And while no, a win this year doesn’t equate exactly to wins in future years, the relationship isn’t that far off, especially if that win is coming on the back of performances like those of Frank Schwindel, whom the Cubs can control for a long, long time if they want to.
- The Cubs are pretty locked into the seventh spot in the draft now. Two games worse than the Twins (in real wins and losses, not the backwards draft-order standings). Two and a half better than the Nationals. It’s going to be hard to move from that order, and again, even if they do…it doesn’t change much for the franchise’s future prospects.
So, hopefully the Cubs do some winning this week. Hopefully they can manage a split and get to 70 wins, something that’ll look a lot more pleasant on the historic table. And hopefully next year’s guys show good things, starting with Alec Mills tonight.
***
The Diaspora:
Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and mayyyyyybe Andrew Chafin are in the thick of a blast of a playoff race in the AL, where things stack up as follows in the Wild Card hunt:
1. Yankees: 89-67, 1.0 games up
2. Red Sox: 88-68, last team in
3. Blue Jays: 87-69, 1.0 games back
4. Mariners: 87-70, 1.5 games back
5. Athletics: 85-72, 3.5 games back
The Yankees are in Toronto tonight. The A’s are in Seattle. The Red Sox are in Baltimore.
Around the Division:
The Brewers are locked into Division Series home field advantage, so while I suppose there could be some World Series home field implications with their games this week, there aren’t many. The Cardinals’ magic number is at one over both the Reds and the Phillies (who’d still be in the NL East hunt if eliminated from the Wild Card race), so they could wrap that up tonight through their own actions or those of others.
Up Next:
Three games in Pittsburgh, starting tonight.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh
Where:
PNC Park
When:
5:35 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the 60’s for most of the game, with winds blowing out towards right at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Mitch Keller
The Opponent:
Keller, a former top prospect, is still getting a lot more love from FIP than from his ERA. His career mark in the former is a solid 4.32. His career mark in the latter is a woeful 5.90. His xERA is in between the two, but has been a 5.55 this year, which isn’t a good sign.
The Pirates are fairly healthy overall, though Jacob Stallings is out with a concussion.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at an even -110 tonight. Over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Nothing too significant.
Cubs Thoughts:
Mills could be a really important piece next year if he can be solid. He’s lined up to start both today and Sunday, so hopefully he can end the year on a good note after sliding a bit lately.
