Maybe it was getting some fresh air this morning or getting caffeinated a little later than usual, but I’m fired up for this series. Nice opportunity to take care of business.
Whom:
Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Where:
Wrigley Field
When:
1:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures in the low 50’s. Wind blowing in at 10-15 mph. Good pre-2021 Zach Davies weather…
Starting Pitchers:
Zach Davies vs. Trevor Cahill (old friend!)
The Opponent:
Remember this guy? Cahill had some good outings with the Cubs back around the World Series year, though he never amassed great stats. Well, he did have a 2.61 ERA, but his 4.10 FIP was right around replacement-level, which actually explains perfectly why I remember him being good but the numbers don’t say he was good. Anyway, the luck has caught up with him half a decade later—he’s got a 3.72 FIP so far but a 7.40 ERA, and it’s not just hard contact—his xERA’s only 4.80. Tougher opponent than one might expect.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is still out for the Pirates. He’s reportedly swinging, but I haven’t seen anything about him coming back this weekend. Wouldn’t rule it out based on what’s out there, but wouldn’t expect it.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -145 favorites with the Pirates at +135, so a bit better than a 55% chance of a win. Over/under’s at 7½ and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Tyson Miller’s off the Covid-19 list, and to make room for him on the 40-man roster Austin Romine’s been moved to the 60-day IL, which means Tony Wolters is the backup for the foreseeable future if all goes as planned.
Pedro Strop has elected free agency. Weird little foray there.
Cubs Thoughts:
Ian Happ isn’t in the lineup today against the righty, and I’m curious why he isn’t on the injured list. That said, it’s hard not to play Jake Marisnick and Matt Duffy right now, Duffy is technically a reverse split on his career (smaller sample than the threshold for predictivity, I think), and Marisnick is also on the bench as they try to heat Joc Pederson up and they keep Jason Heyward in the lineup. Hopefully we see Happ pinch hit today and get some reassurance the Cubs aren’t just wasting this roster spot.
Davies was better his last time out (slight improvement on walks, strikeouts, and exit velocity, and some better luck on balls in play and with timing), and it’s hard to draw up a better situation for him than facing a lineup like that of the Pirates—terrible on paper, terrible in practice, missing one of its best weapons—on a cool-not-cold day with the wind blowing in. Hopefully he can get through four innings again and leave with the Cubs having a chance to win.
Around the Division:
The Brewers got swept by the Phillies and the Cardinals ended up splitting their four with the Mets while the Reds and Pirates were off yesterday. On the topic of the Reds: I neglected to mention yesterday that Joey Votto has a broken thumb and is going to be out a while, which is obviously quite bad for them.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 18-14, 29.0%
2. Milwaukee: 17-15, 44.5%
3. Cubs: 15-16, 12.8%
4. Cincinnati: 14-15, 13.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 13-17, 0.3%
The Reds are in Cleveland this weekend, while the Brewers go to Miami and the Cardinals host the Rockies. So, don’t expect to gain much ground on St. Louis, but hopefully the Cubs can hold the gap by winning the series.
