Is the Positive Covid Test Rate Surging?

Note: We revisited this three days later, and the feared spike had not, at that point, turned out to be a spike.

The positive coronavirus test rate in the United States has slid upwards over the last three days.

Line is seven-day moving average of positive test rate. Graph from Johns Hopkins.

It’s not a massive spike, and it’s only been three days, but it’s noticeable, and given it comes a few weeks after students returned to college campuses and local schools, there’s something there to be wary of. The United States was on the verge of holding the positive test rate under five percent—a threshold the World Health Organization used in May as signifying a country was safe to “reopen.” Now, it’s back above five percent, with memories of this summer’s spike not very distant. It’s possible this is just a blip. It’s possible it’s a short-term trend. It’s possible we’re once again turning the wrong corner.

Hopefully, it’s nothing. We’ll see.

Editor. Occasional blogger. Seen on Twitter, often in bursts: @StuartNMcGrath
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