On the short season, no one has been more unproductive offensively for the Chicago Cubs than one Javier Báez, whom FanGraphs measures as having performed 8.5 runs below average at the plate. He’s contributed positively defensively and on the basepaths, and shortstops are generally a weaker-hitting bunch, so he’s still a positive-WAR player, but it’s been a rough go of it.
Which made his performance in the two-game Cleveland set encouraging.
It’s been a solid week and a half from Báez now, as the shortstop went three-for-nine against the Brewers, hit a key triple against the Reds, and turned in a three-hit performance in the series finale against St. Louis. Over the stretch, his xBA has been .258—not great, but better than the .232 he’s sporting over the whole of the season, which is in turn better than his .211 actual batting average (while batting average can be misleading in comparing players’ offensive production to one another, it’s useful in comparing Javy Báez’s performance to Javy Báez’s performance, especially because Javy Báez doesn’t walk very much). In other words, the results are encouraging, the underlying performance is slightly less discouraging than it’s been, and we’ll see where things go this weekend.
The two-game sweep put the Cubs in their best position since the rapturous start gave way to something more in line with expectations. They lead the division by five and a half games, with a 98.9% chance (per FanGraphs) of finishing off the campaign in first. They’re a game ahead of Atlanta for the second seed in the NL, which could mean a more advantageous Wild Card Series opponent (one would rather deal with the Giants pitching than that of the Reds, for example) in addition to being the home team once more often in the NLDS. Jon Lester has now turned in two straight solid starts. There’s a relative absence of frustration after winning back-to-back game via walkoff.
This weekend will be a test, though. The Twins are, on paper, the best team the Cubs have played all year. What happens won’t be predictive of potential October results, but at the same time, it’s a measuring stick, especially with a mashed up potential playoff rotation set to cover the three games (Kyle Hendricks tonight, Alec Mills tomorrow, Yu Darvish on Sunday). It’s also the final series in a strange season at Wrigley Field, and the forecasts are a bit chilly, giving at least a feel of October weather, though any games in October itself will be played in warmer climes.
It’s still a day or two too early to say the Cubs have wrapped up a division title, but we’re getting closer to that. After two frustrating years, they’re in a good position. Now, to get more production from their shortstop.
