The scene opens in a dark room. Seated at a towering desk, a man in a dark suit reads a message on a piece of paper. He raises his gaze to the cowering figure seated in front of him.
“NC State? Really”
***
I had taken some casual notice of Clemson being just a ten-point favorite or so entering yesterday’s game in Raleigh, but I didn’t make much of it. Clemson was still “figuring it out” on offense, after all, and they’ve played with enough fire in recent years that it wouldn’t have been shocking to see them eek out another September win before turning on the jets in another month or two and making another run.
That run is highly unlikely now.
Although.
It’s possible.
Before getting into this, let’s acknowledge something important, which is that Clemson does not appear to be much good. They’re good, sure. They have loads of talent, their defense has been fine or good, they’re probably still the ACC favorites. But they aren’t what we’re accustomed to seeing. There was some theorizing that this might be the case, and that theorizing has now been justified. Clemson does not appear to be much good.
I say that because teams that aren’t much good shouldn’t be expected to win out, and while nobody in college football should be expected to win out at this point, a team that managed just 4.3 yards per pass against North Carolina State University should especially not be expected to win out. A team that was outgained 386-214 by North Carolina State University especially should not be expected to win out. A team that managed to hold onto the ball for just eighteen minutes and twelve seconds against North Carolina State University especially should not be expected to win out.
But again, the run is still possible.
We’ve talked a bit this season about how unusual the last few years have been in terms of how many undefeated teams we’ve seen. Last year can be explained by the pandemic shortening things, but that doesn’t change the fact that an abundance of undefeateds clouds recent memory. We haven’t seen a two-loss Power Five champion make the playoff, but we also haven’t seen a situation where there have been three or more two-loss Power Five champions, and we could be on our way to that happening. We’ve had two two-or-more-loss Power Five champions before. That’s happened four times. In two of those seasons, Notre Dame was a clear choice for the fourth spot. In one of them, Alabama got in with just one loss. In the other, Ohio State got in with just one loss. If we get to three teams in this situation, rather than two, the committee’s going to have to dig deeper than it’s dug before. Clemson’s probability is certainly low, but it’s not zero yet. Not with such a clear path still between them and an ACC Championship.
Regardless of whether Clemson still has a path or not, the rest of the country’s paths just got a bit wider, and a helpful exercise for this is gauging what each playoff hopeful needs to do to be guaranteed a playoff spot. These are estimations, of course, but of the teams that control their fate, I’d offer the following prescriptions for being nearly locked into a playoff berth:
Alabama
Go 12-1.
Georgia
Go 12-1.
Oklahoma
Go 12-1, win the Big 12.
Oregon
Go 12-1, win the Pac-12.
Ohio State
Go 12-1.
Pausing for a second, yes, I’m offering paths such that theoretically, five or more of them could all be attained. The odds of such attainment are rather low, though.
Florida
…Go 12-1.
Look, this is tough. Florida might be able to get in without much controversy at 11-2, especially if it somehow finagles itself into a situation where it wins the SEC at 11-2. But that’s not safe enough yet to recommend it.
Notre Dame
Go 12-0.
Iowa, Penn State, Michigan
Go 12-1, win the Big Ten.
Wake Forest, Boston College, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Maryland, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi
I mean, sure, you go 13-0 or 12-1 with a conference title, you’re most likely getting in if you’re in the Power Five, and with no losses yet from any of these schools, that’s certainly a goal. But the probability is so low for all of them that at this point, like we talked about a bit yesterday, they’re just not factors yet. They’re teams of interest, but not factors.
***
That leaves us with eighteen teams who control their fate. We’re also left with just five contenders, and I’d say still the same six factors as yesterday: Florida, Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan, and Cincinnati, who does not at all control their fate because we still don’t know what, if anything, a Group of Five team needs to do to make the playoff field. Clemson, like that Wake Forest grouping, is a team of interest, but they’re not going to be a factor again until things open up substantially, which may or may not happen.
What a shift. What a game by NC State. What a game by Clemson, meant in the opposite way.
Let’s go around the country now.
***
ACC
It’s Nightmare Time™ for the ACC, although unlike Nightmare Time™ in the Pac-12 in recent years, this might just be a blip historically.
Of course, it might not be a blip, but the chances of that are comparable to the chances of the ACC actually getting its one-loss champion or undefeated champion or two-loss Clemson champion with enough chaos to put that team in the playoff.
Wake Forest and Boston College are the lone unbeatens. North Carolina lost again, this time to Georgia Tech, and it was a pulverization. Complicating things a bit for Clemson’s conference title hopes is the fact that NC State’s in the Atlantic with the Tigers, meaning NC State now has a loss to give, like a basketball team might “have a foul to give.” Lose once in conference play, and NC State still makes the ACC Championship if there’s just a two-way tie. That could matter. It probably doesn’t, but it could.
The question, as alluded to above, is whether Clemson can play well enough to not just keep losing. The other question is whether this league might have some weeks with nobody in the top 25 if things break poorly and Clemson loses another one soon.
Boston College plays at Clemson on Saturday. One-loss (the Mississippi one) Louisville visits Wake Forest. I’m not sure what other games matter because the ACC without Clemson looks like a molded, corroded refrigerator whose door has finally been ripped off the hinges. Before yesterday, you wouldn’t have necessarily noticed it. Now, it’s out in the open. And it reeks.
Big 12
Oklahoma almost got its own Clemson treatment, scuffling yet again but winning yet again. The Sooners were an underdog by win probability late in the game against West Virginia, and West Virginia’s biggest accomplishments entering the game were beating Virginia Tech by six and managing to lose to Maryland by only six.
Oklahoma has a little bit of cushion, but not an infinite amount, and with the Big 12 gauntlet looking more like a gauntlet for them than it usually does (they go to Kansas State next week, follow that with the Red River Shootout, and follow that with a visit from TCU), it’s dicey. Look at that parenthetical again. That’s not such a bad slate. But the way Oklahoma’s looked? They might be more than 50% likely to lose at least one of the three. The Big 12 is somewhat open. Nobody’s all that well-positioned to take it, but it’s the most open it’s been in a few years.
On a related note, please excuse me while I look at Iowa State’s box scores against Iowa and Baylor and scream into a pillow until I go unconscious.
Texas walloped Texas Tech, putting up seventy points, including 63 in the first three quarters and 42 before halftime. I don’t know, guys. Maybe. Iowa State lost to Baylor, taking the Cyclones out of even the team of interest category for at least the moment and putting Baylor in there in their place. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State, and after a lackluster first three weeks, the Pokes are 4-0, even with just an average margin of victory of six points.
Baylor goes to Stillwater next week.
SEC
We haven’t even gotten to Arkansas! Man. Fun times for them. The Pigs are undefeated heading into a visit to Georgia next weekend, and with Alabama hosting Mississippi later in the afternoon, it’s a big, big day in the SEC, albeit one where we have a pretty good idea of what’s about to happen.
There’ve been questions about the SEC West’s pecking order, and at least for the moment, Arkansas appears to be the second team in line over there. More importantly, Texas A&M is clearly not that team. Not right now. They might get back there, but what looked so promising for the Aggies has gotten sad in a hurry.
In the East, Florida took care of Tennessee and we’ve been mentioning undefeateds, so we’ll tell you that Kentucky now has wins over Louisiana-Monroe, Mizzou, Chattanooga, and South Carolina. They’ll host the Gators next weekend in an undercard.
Big Ten
We’ll talk about Wisconsin in a moment, but even beyond them…not a great showing from the Legends and the Leaders. Michigan struggled to put away Rutgers. Iowa trailed Colorado State at the half. Ohio State and Penn State were fine, and Ohio State’s still arguably the league’s best shot at a national champion, but it’d be nice for the conference if its other best shots were looking great right now, and Iowa and Michigan suffered at least blips.
Minnesota losing to Bowling Green provokes some broader questions regarding the quality of various teams (as does Auburn struggling against Georgia State), but there’s enough else going on that this shouldn’t be called a house of cards. Even if we’re wondering that.
Michigan State stays interesting as well, escaping a feisty Nebraska, and Maryland is also 4-0. The Terps host Iowa next week while Ohio State goes to Rutgers, Michigan goes to Madison, Penn State hosts Indiana, and Michigan State hosts Western Kentucky in a game where come on you guys could see that happening, couldn’t you?
Pac-12
And in a twist, the most routine Power Five league is the Pacific 12, where Oregon did its job while UCLA and Arizona State looked fine.
Notre Dame
Here’s where it gets interesting again.
Notre Dame struggled mightily against Wisconsin, then was forced by injuries to turn to its third-string quarterback yesterday, who may not have been flawless but did provide some life. The team is suspect, but so is the schedule, and with Clemson taking the ACC out of the picture (at least for the moment), that might end up being a good thing for the Irish. Notre Dame is far from the best team out there, but aside from Oregon, they probably have the most manageable path from here, beginning with a home game next week against good-not-great Cincinnati.
(We mentioned we’d mention Wisconsin so…apologies, Wisconsin, for everything that has ever happened to you.)
The American
On the topic of Cincinnati, the Bearcats were off this week but their leaguemates in Dallas were not. SMU went to Fort Worth and beat TCU, and the AAC might have itself a second team to help bolster the narrative. I don’t know what happens if Cincinnati beats Notre Dame next weekend. I don’t think any of us do. That’s part of the deal when the Playoff’s as young as it is. We don’t know what happens if one of the most consistently powerful Group of Five programs, which plays in the best Group of Five league, beats a big-name team that could reasonably go 11-1 against a Power Five schedule.
Or rather.
We don’t know what happens if that team does that and then keeps winning.
BYU
The Cougars, like Cincinnati, are in somewhat unknown territory, but after holding off a late South Florida charge last night, BYU’s 4-0 with promising ground ahead.
The Rest
There are some other undefeateds lurking out there, the most interesting of which are Coastal Carolina and UTSA, because they’re the most likely to win out and they are named “Chanticleers” and “Roadrunners.” UTSA took down Memphis after beating Illinois a few weeks ago, and it’s not an entrance to the national stage, but it’s an entrance to a national stage.
***
Great week of games next week, including some good stuff Friday night, with Iowa in College Park and BYU in Logan. Remember, sparknotes: Five contenders, six factors, a world of teams of interest.
