There are still four weeks before Selection Sunday. That’s a lot of weeks, in which there will be a lot of games. But right now, as things project in our latest bracketology, Iowa is expected to land as a three-seed. And because there’s more stratification at the top than in the middle of the S-Curve, that means they’re more likely to land as a four-seed than a two-seed. Which, in turn, means someone on the top two seed lines is going to be staring down the team KenPom currently rates as the third-best in the country should both they and Iowa advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
The most fun way this could go would be for Iowa to get a four seed and play Gonzaga or Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen. Give one of those the toughest test the rest of the field can throw at them relatively quickly out of the gates. Get all the hype involved.
Where will it probably go? Well, as has been said, the median projection, has the Hawkeyes a three-seed, lined up against a USC team that would be a three or four-point underdog were the two to meet today.
More likely than not, someone’s going to get a tough draw because of Iowa. Garza Roulette.
Our other morning movement:
Moving Up: Arkansas, VCU
The Razorbacks got a nice win over Mizzou in Columbia. Our model wasn’t shocked, but this still moves the needle a good bit in systems like KPI, and it further confirms suspicions that the Razorbacks are roughly as good as Eric Musselman’s best two teams at Nevada. Woo Pig, indeed.
VCU’s win over St. Bonaventure was also not unexpected, but it did shake up the A-10 race a bit. We’ll talk about this more below, but the A-10 could easily be a four-bid league, and it could easily be a one-bid league. Such is life in true mid majordom.
Moving Down: Xavier
Xavier took their third loss of the season, but it’s only paired with eleven wins (it was only the Musketeers’ second game in the last month), and it came at home against a UConn team that is still, this morning, projected to land in the NIT. Xavier’s far from safe.
Moving In: Saint Louis (auto-bid)
After that VCU/Bonaventure game, Saint Louis again looks like the best team in the A-10, but is unlikely to produce a résumé worthy of NCAA Tournament inclusion. The result is that the Billikens slot into our projection as something of a pseudo-bid thief. There are no projected bid thieves, but that’s because St. Louis would be thieving the bid, something our model, based on parameters we don’t love but kind of have to accept, expects to happen for the purposes of bracketologizing (someone has to get the A-10 automatic bid). SLU is only something like 20% likely to win the A-10 tournament, but that still makes them the winner in the plurality of simulations, with many others seeing Richmond crack the field themselves, or be the team that gets their bid stolen by the Billikens. Complex scenarios, many of them good for the Atlantic 10, many of them (only VCU or St. Bonaventure makes the cut) disappointing.
Moving Out: Colorado State
And whose bid is thieved, in our model’s projection? Colorado State’s, as the Rams sank ever-so-slightly over their weekend off.
