This is an unlikely win for the Cyclones.
But it’d go a long way.
The Game
Iowa State @ Iowa
The Time
8:00 PM Central
The Television
Big Ten Network
The Opponent
The Hawkeyes are good. Ranked third in the country. Probably not the third-best team, but they’re in KenPom’s top ten, the five teams between them and the Baylor/Gonzaga KenPom pair have each lost, and they’ve got the Player of the Year favorite. The ranking is fair. Yes, on defense they’re mediocre, but so is Iowa State, and on offense…
The Numbers
Vegas has Iowa favored by 13, down from the 16 where it opened. KenPom has Iowa favored by eleven, as an 83% favorite. KenPom says 159 points will be scored. Vegas says 158, down from 163.5. There will be much scoring. Iowa State has to roll a six.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
Iowa State is a clear little brother right now. It’d be different if the Cyclones had won the football game last year. Or the year before that. Or the three years before that. Or if they’d won in basketball either of the last two years, or in wrestling any of the last sixteen. So it’s not like Iowa State can lose this one and say, “Yeah, but we’ve still got you guys in _____.” Unless ISU somehow makes the College Football Playoff, there is no blank. And even then, barring something majestic against an Alabama of the world, there’s probably still no blank.
Now, if Iowa State wins…whoa boy. What a win it would be. Season-altering. Rivalry-helping. There’s a path there. One that relies on lighting Iowa up outside. The Hawkeye guards, for all their strengths, aren’t exactly the quickest. Open looks will be had, and Iowa State’s going to shoot whether it’s a good idea or not. Of all the nights to start making them, this would be a good one. Inside, defending Luka Garza is going to be rather impossible, and it might be a good idea to have Xavier Foster and George Conditt pick up most of the fouls so Solomon Young can go at Garza on the other end and try to get him in foul trouble. I haven’t watched enough Iowa these last couple years to know if Garza can be rattled, but my guess is that he can be, and we know Fran McCaffery can get rattled (to put it mildly), so if things get chippy, that could help too. It isn’t a great shot, but it’s a shot.
In a more realistic sense, Iowa State needs to just play Iowa close, to prove to itself it can play good teams close and to at least show some capability in the rivalry, speaking more broadly. This can get out of hand, and if Iowa State shoots as poorly as Iowa State can shoot (and has shot), it’s going to get out of hand. It’s stupid and it’s simple, but Iowa State needs to make shots. They also need to figure out a way to chop up Iowa on the other end.
We’ll see.
