More progress?
The Game
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech, in Ames
The Time
3:00 PM Central
The Television
ESPN2
The Opponent
Texas Tech. Yet another very good basketball team.
The Numbers
Vegas has Iowa State a 7.5-point underdog, with the over/under at 134. KenPom’s projecting a final score of 70-64 and giving the Cyclones a 31% chance to win.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
The goal is progress, but because of how deep the top half of the Big 12 runs, this is one of ISU’s best shots at a win the remainder of the year. By KenPom, only six games are more likely winners for the Cyclones to the rest of the way, only five of those are in the Big 12, and only a few are significantly more likely winners.
We’ve been enjoying the steps taken over the last two games. Defensively, ISU’s looked better. Offensively, ISU’s looked more consistent. It’s probably greedy to hope for a win, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. We’re looking at a comparable probability to when a bad Major League Baseball team plays a good one.
To make it happen, though, ISU’s going to have to protect the ball. That’s been terrifically hard for State all year, and today it’ll be especially hard. Texas Tech’s likely the best team in the country at forcing turnovers (the two with better numbers both play in the Southland, where they exactly been competing against as strong of offenses as Chris Beard’s team has had to rob). Making shots is also hard against Tech, but honestly, if we’re at the point where the Cyclones are at least shooting, it’s not the worst possession (provided they aren’t reverting to some of the chucking that went on over the season’s first month, though we would still take that over a slew of turnovers).
Defensively, there’s some opportunity. Tech’s been struggling to shoot efficiently. Limit second chances and don’t bail them out with fouls, and ISU has a chance. But that’s easier said than done, and the Red Raiders are, true to form, among college basketball’s best at getting second chance shots and getting to the free throw line.
So no, the path isn’t exactly there for an upset. But it’s possible to overemphasize paths a lot with upsets, and the bigger thing here is that Texas Tech is not as good as Baylor, and is not as good as Texas, and Iowa State played respectably against both those schools.
There’s a chance.
