Well, um, a little less emotional this week.
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Whom:
Iowa State vs. UNLV
When:
9:30 PM Cyclone Time
Where:
Las Vegas
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s around gametime. Not too much wind—five, ten miles per hour.
How to Watch:
CBS Sports Network
The Opponent:
UNLV is among the FBS’s worst teams. They’re the bottom of the Mountain West. They are narrowly worse than Kansas.
Iowa State should pound this team.
The Numbers:
Bill Connelly’s SP+ has the Cyclones a 31.7-point favorite. Vegas has it at 32.5. The over/under’s at 52.
What Iowa State Needs to Do:
A clean, comfortable, confident victory feels necessary. It’s also probably a good week to try to build Brock Purdy back up. Get him some open relievers downfield to hit. Get him clicking on those bubble screens. Reestablish him as the quarterback. He needs to be better than he was against Iowa if Iowa State’s going to make a run at that conference championship appearance.
Other Games of Interest:
West Virginia hosts Virginia Tech in the Big 12’s biggest cross-conference clash. Oklahoma State visits Boise State, which should tell us something about the Pokes. Kansas State hosts Nevada, which should tell us something about the Skylar Thompson-less Cats. Baylor and Kansas open league play in Lawrence.
Connelly posted the Big 12’s SP+ numbers this week in the public sphere as part of a…well, long story, but he posted them, so they were out from behind the paywall, so let’s check in on them. Among FBS programs, here’s where everyone ranks:
3. Oklahoma (12.0-point favorite over ISU on neutral field)
18. Iowa State
29. TCU (4.5-point underdog against ISU on neutral field)
30. Texas (4.8-point underdog)
38. Oklahoma State (6.5-point underdog)
43. West Virginia (7.9-point underdog)
48. Baylor (8.8-point underdog)
52. Kansas State (9.1-point underdog)
56. Texas Tech (11.3-point underdog)
118. Kansas (31.7-point underdog)
In other words, take care of business and you’re favored until November 20th. One week at a time, though.
Iowa State Thoughts:
The Cyclones didn’t really change perceptions last week, in hindsight. Per Connelly, their postgame win expectancy (which tries to take luck out of the equation) had them winning 87% of games like that one. Which does nothing to comfort, and perhaps more to frustrate, but does confirm what we thought was the case: They’re a solid football team with some shakiness on offense. Hopefully, that’s enough to go 8-1 in Big 12 play, sneak into a New Years Six bowl, and win it (see you later—I’m going to go look for a scenario in which they get to play Iowa again).
