What are we going to see tonight?
The Game
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State, in Ames
The Time
8:00 PM Central
The Television
ESPN2
The Opponent
Oklahoma State’s a good team. Currently projected to wind up an eight-seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Pokes are the seventh-best team in a seven-deep Big 12. They feature potential first overall NBA pick Cade Cunningham, though Cunningham was unavailable on Saturday as he continues to recover from a bout with the coronavirus. I’ve seen nothing about his availability tonight.
The Numbers
Vegas has Iowa State as a three-point underdog, with the over/under at 145.5. That line suggests bettors are not expecting Cunningham to play, since KenPom has Oklahoma State a four-point, 66% favorite, with a projected final score of 75-71.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
I haven’t been able to find a cohesive availability list for Iowa State tonight, suggesting such a list isn’t yet public. That list is the big uncertainty. If Iowa State’s significantly shorthanded, it’s probably just one of those games you have to get through. If they’re at full strength numbers-wise, and everyone’s fully recovered, there’s the opportunity for a reset, with the accompanying risk of rust.
Tactics-wise, Oklahoma State likes to run. They’re aggressive on the offensive glass. They don’t shoot many threes. Cunningham’s the focal point of the offense, but Kalib Boone also gets a lot of touches, and he, Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe, and Keylan Boone should give Solomon Young a lot of work inside. Isaac Likekele’s still on the team, and he still excels at getting to the basket and getting to the free throw line.
For Iowa State, slowing the Cowboys down isn’t necessarily necessary, but they can’t allow too many fast-break points. Thankfully for the Cyclones, OK State doesn’t force many turnovers, but neither have a lot of the other opponents, so as usual, ball protection’s going to be a key. The more possessions that can end in shots in the paint, the better, whether that’s coming from driving or getting it inside to Young. On the defensive end, ISU doesn’t need to completely shut down Oklahoma State’s second chance shots, but they need to limit them better than they have so far. ISU’s best defensive facet is their perimeter defense, which isn’t going to be worth much against an Oklahoma State team that doesn’t like to shoot threes.
It’s a bad matchup, even if Cunningham’s unhealthy. But as far as lines go, this is one of the better ones Iowa State will see over the rest of the year.
