Iowa State needs to win the ones it can. This is one of those.
The Game
Iowa State vs. DePaul, in Ames
The Time
5:00 PM Central
The Television
ESPNU
The Opponent
DePaul. After starting last season hot, the Blue Demons faded hard, going just 3-15 in Big East play. They’re fine this year—not the Big East’s worst, but on the bottom end of a good league. Just like Iowa State.
The Numbers
Vegas has Iowa State favored to win by four. So does KenPom.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
Win, win, win. The opportunities are few. The Cyclones missed a big one on Wednesday. If they’re going to do anything with this season, they need to play significantly better than they’ve played so far.
That starts with shooting. Not because it has to, but because it’s hard to see a pivot away from jacking up threes. It’s fine to jack them up, but you need to make some. 29% is terrible. It should change naturally, as the sample size rises. But it’s been terrible so far.
Something that might help that effort is getting Solomon Young going, which worked so well in the second half against South Dakota State. Not only is Young, by virtue of playing inside, a high-percentage shooter, but forcing the defense to collapse into double-teams opens up looks outside, and while open looks aren’t guarantees, the more Iowa State can get, the better.
In a similar vein, Iowa State’s had success penetrating. It’s early, so take the numbers with a grain of salt, but Jalen Coleman-Lands is seven for nine on twos. Javan Johnson is five for eight inside the arc. Rasir Bolton is ten for thirteen. The three guys who haven’t found their stroke yet from deep (Coleman-Lands is five for seventeen on threes, Johnson is three for thirteen, and Bolton is two for eight) haven’t been ineffective. But by attacking the defense, much like Iowa State can more broadly by feeding Young, they can open up looks for themselves, many of which will be closer to the hoop and again, naturally more efficient.
It’s DePaul’s first game of the year, so we don’t know what exactly to expect from them, but we’d expect them to play a mildly up-tempo game, like last year’s team did, to play aggressive defense, like last year’s team did, and to attack the offensive glass, like last year’s team did. What they lack in full-on talent, they make up for with aggression. Steve Prohm’s team is going to need to be prepared, and composed, and weather some storms by slowing things down if necessary.
We’ll see where it goes. It’s not a must-win, exactly. But for December, it’s pretty close.
