Look. Yes, this is getting way too far ahead of ourselves. Way, way, way too far ahead of ourselves. But at the same time, there’s this weird situation regarding Saturday’s game and, well, it’s interesting, if nothing else.
So far, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have zero Big 12 losses. Baylor and Iowa State each have one—Baylor’s to Oklahoma State, Iowa State’s to Baylor. Texas has two losses—one to Oklahoma State, one to Oklahoma. TCU has two losses—one to Texas, one to Oklahoma. Beyond these six teams, it’s really hard to see anybody making the conference championship. It’s not impossible…but it’s unlikely.
Currently, Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects the median final Big 12 standings as follows:
1. Oklahoma: 8-1
T-2. Iowa State: 6-3
T-2. Baylor: 6-3
T-2. Oklahoma State: 6-3
5. Texas: 5-4
T-6. TCU: 4-5
T-6. Texas Tech: 4-5
T-8. Kansas State: 3-6
T-8. West Virginia: 3-6
10. Kansas: 0-9
Who loses to whom? Well, it’s not that simple. These are median projections, coming from simulations on simulations on simulations, and effectively compiled from things like, “There’s a 60% chance Iowa State loses to Oklahoma, a 29% chance Iowa State loses to Oklahoma State,”…etc. The basic takeaway, though, is that Iowa State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State are very close to one another in projections, with Texas not far out of the mix. And in the scenario in which Iowa State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State end up tied, well, there’s that weird scenario we talked about.
Let’s take a look at the relevant section of what I believe are the Big 12’s most current tiebreakers:
In the event two (or more teams) tie for second or any subsequent position, the tiebreaker procedures below will be used to break all ties as necessary. For the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process:
A. If two teams are tied, the winner of the regular-season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
B. If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 4 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the regular season game between the two tied teams shall prevail.
1. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against each other in a “mini round-robin” format.
2. The Conference records of the three or more teams will be compared against the remaining team(s) in the Conference standings from top to bottom.
a. When comparing against the remaining teams in the Conference standings any two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head competition before the comparison begins.
b. If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective tied teams as a group will be used.
3. Scoring differential among the tied teams. The team or teams with the lowest difference between points scored and points allowed in games vs. the tied teams is eliminated from consideration.
4. Draw (In the event steps 1-3 cannot break a multi-team tie the prevailing team or teams will be determined by draw at the Conference office).
Let’s say those three teams—Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor—do end up tied. The most plausible route for us getting there involves Iowa State beating Oklahoma State, so let’s then step past Step 1, which would leave us still tied (each would be 1-1 against the other two). Most likely, if each team is 6-3 in conference, as SP+ predicts, and Oklahoma’s 8-1, we’d then have a rather simple solution: Whichever team beat Oklahoma would get to play Oklahoma again for the conference title. If all three lost to Oklahoma, the team with the worst loss, paradoxically, would get a second shot at Oklahoma for the conference title.
But let’s say the three teams aren’t 6-3. Let’s say they’re 7-2. And let’s say Oklahoma’s 9-0. Let’s say everyone in the current and projected top four takes care of business. Is it all that likely? No. But it’s not impossible. And if that’s the case, well, here’s where it gets weird.
If we have a three-way tie in which these three teams are 7-2 and Oklahoma, above them, is 9-0, we’ll have a situation where Step 2 can’t be used to break the tie. All three teams will have lost to Oklahoma. All three teams will have gone 1-1 against each other. All three teams will have gone 6-0 against the rest of the league. Which brings us to Step 3.
Baylor beat Iowa State by only two points. Oklahoma State beat Baylor by ten. Baylor’s point differential within the tie would be negative eight. Oklahoma State’s would be ten minus Iowa State’s hypothetical margin of victory on Saturday. Iowa State’s would be the hypothetical Saturday margin minus two. Good situation for Iowa State, right? Beat Oklahoma State by more than six and you’ve got the lead? Cover the spread and you’ve got the lead?
Not exactly.
The rule doesn’t say that the team with the best point differential within the tie would advance. It says the team with the worst point differential would be eliminated from the tie, bringing us back to a straight head-to-head between the other two. So, if Iowa State wins by, say, 19, their point differential would be positive-17, Baylor’s would be negative-8, and Oklahoma State’s would be negative-9, eliminating Oklahoma State from the tie and giving Baylor the spot in the Big 12 championship by virtue of their win over ISU in Waco. Which means…
Iowa State should not win by more than 18 on Saturday. Win by 18, you win this hypothetical tiebreaker. Win by 17, you win it. Win by 1, you win it (Baylor would be eliminated at -8, ISU and OK State would be at -1 and +9 but ISU would win the ensuing head-to-head). Win by 19, you lose it.
Is this silly? Is this something to actually worry about? I mean, yes. It might only increase your championship odds by fractions of a percent, but every inch counts, right? You spend hours in practice focusing on getting those extras inches, why not focus on them here?
I’m not saying Iowa State should have this on the mind all game. Play to win the game. If you do that, you most likely are fine. But if they’re up 24 late…get those Pokes in the endzone.
And ideally, don’t let the Big 12 notice you do it.
