Oklahoma is not really one of the ten best teams in the country.
But they’ve sure been playing well.
The Game
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
The Time
11:00 AM Central
The Television
ESPN2
The Opponent
The Oklahoma Sooners. Winners of five of their last six. Defeaters of Alabama (without Austin Reaves and Alondes Williams, no less). AP Poll darling on Monday, before they lost to Texas Tech (also without Reaves and Williams).
The Numbers
Vegas has Iowa State a 14.5-point underdog, with the over/under at 141. KenPom gives Iowa State a 10% chance to win and has the projected final score at 78-64.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
Oklahoma’s a solid all-around team, but there isn’t a ton they do spectacularly well. They have high steal numbers but their overall turnover rate, defensively, isn’t great. They shoot free throws well but they don’t get to the line often. I suppose their interior defense is solid, but that’s about it. Just a good team.
With that, if Iowa State’s going to pull of the upset, there are a few ways for that to happen. There’s the classic: Shoot the lights out. Iowa State hasn’t been chucking as much lately (which is a good thing), but this is still always a path, for better or worse. There’s the most possible: Just get lucky. Oklahoma isn’t a very efficient shooting team, inside or outside the arc. If the Sooners go particularly cold, ISU could theoretically capitalize. Again, this might be the most common angle within those 10% of times in which Iowa State wins. Finally, there’s the ideal: Put it all together. What happens here is that with Javan Johnson back, the Cyclones find some rhythm offensively, moving the ball quickly but efficiently and finding Tyler Harris and Jalen Coleman-Lands for open looks. Solomon Young has the game of his life, so far (which would be quite the game, considering how well Young’s played at times). Rasir Bolton plays under control but gets to the hoop with some frequency. Tre Jackson gives Austin Reaves headaches. Darlinstone Dubar, Jaden Walker, and Dudley Blackwell each contribute solid stretches. And George Conditt breaks out of it, making plays alongside Young and while spelling Young.
Will the Cyclones actually put it all together? Probably not. But steps towards that would be promising. In the meantime, I just googled Steve Prohm’s buyout. It was reportedly close to eight million entering the year.
