Iowa State tips off its season today, with about the most tune-up of a tune-up they could ask for.
The Game
Iowa State vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
The Time
12:00 PM Central
The Television
ESPN+ (subscription service)
The Opponent
Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an HBCU a short ways down the Arkansas River from Little Rock. UAPB plays in the SWAC, and they aren’t one of its better teams, expected by KenPom to finish ninth in the ten-team league this year. They’ve lost their first two games—against Marquette and Wisconsin—by 42 and 34, respectively. KenPom has their offense rated as the second-worst in Division I, and has them better than only four teams in total, one of whom—Maryland-Eastern Shore—is sitting the season out. The Golden Lions aren’t much on the court. But they are a Division I basketball team.
The Probabilities
I’m seeing Iowa State as a 34-point favorite. KenPom has it as an 85-57 game, with the Cyclones a 99% favorite to win.
What Iowa State Needs to Do
This is, as was said, a tune-up, but there’s still a right outcome and a wrong outcome. If Iowa State can win cleanly and competently, with the game never close, it might not necessarily bode well for the rest of the year, but it at least won’t bode poorly. The cleanliness aspect is important—Iowa State struggled with turnovers last year, and struggled mightily with denying opponents offensive rebounds. Correcting these things and keeping fouls low would be good signs.
From last year’s rotation, only Rasir Bolton, Solomon Young, George Conditt, and Tre Jackson return. This isn’t a small portion, but those filling the gaps are new to the program, with the exception of Javan Johnson, who sat out last year after transferring from Troy. Communication issues would not be a surprise, which again makes turnovers something to watch.
There are only three traditional buy games on the Cyclone schedule, and the next one doesn’t come for three more weeks (South Dakota State may be a buy game in reality, but the Jackrabbits are better than K-State). This is the opportunity to work out the kinks before a tough three-game nonconference stretch (South Dakota State, DePaul, at Iowa). We’ll see how well they take advantage of it.
