Iowa State Almost Takes Down Baylor—Five Thoughts

1. Not all 17-point leads are equal.

Even when Iowa State led by nearly twenty in the first half, they were heavy underdogs in win probability models. Which is to say that framing this as a collapse would be inaccurate, and I hope few are doing that.

2. Iowa State rebounded better in the second half.

ISU’s three-point shooting (seven of ten in the first half) built them that 17-point lead and took them into halftime up five. Over the course of the first half, though, they’d yielded nearly half of possible offensive rebounds to Baylor, allowing seven while pulling down just nine defensive boards. In the second half, that ratio improved from 9:7 to 17:7. That is a big gap, and it’s one where the raw total—seven offensive rebounds for Baylor in each half—is misleading. Rasir Bolton’s effort (Bolton led the Cyclones with eight defensive rebounds, four in each half) on that front shouldn’t be overlooked.

3. Solomon Young had another tough one.

Five turnovers for the big man.

4. Baylor may have been rusty, but they were still Baylor.

It’s fair to assign some of Iowa State’s ability to compete to their hosts’ extended absence leading up to the game. But at the same time, this was a really good performance by the Cyclones, and with Kansas State officially back on the schedule for a regular-season-ending rematch in Manhattan, and with a promising opportunity on Saturday against TCU in Ames, there’s reason to be optimistic about Iowa State’s chances of getting a conference win before the year is up.

5. Steve Prohm’s buyout is $5 Million.

This comes from the Des Moines Register on Monday. I have no idea what Iowa State will do when it comes to Prohm. I would imagine that even the rosiest of projections for the Cyclones have them struggling to reach the bubble next season, and Prohm’s tenure has been disappointing overall. But with little reason for optimism ISU will find someone better than Prohm, and with finances what they are within the school due to the coronavirus, I’d hope that fundraising efforts wouldn’t be aimed towards a buyout and instead would go towards shoring up the athletic department’s debt. But I don’t make that call, and those that do know Iowa State and all the factors at play much better than I do.

The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. Was asked to do NIT Bracketology in 2018 and never looked back. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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